Season 8, Episode 3 Probabilities

Unfortunately, I'm not able to watch the show tonight. I've opened up the comments for tonight's episode, feel free to comment away and let me know what happened at the Truth Booth and Matchup Ceremony - I'll have the probabilities up in the morning. I'll return for the Live Blog next week.

Update (10:15 PM) - Here's the update based on what was shared in the comments:

Truth Booth #2

Brandon & Remy - no match leaves 120,800 combinations left.

	Aasha	Amber	Basit	Brandon	Danny	Jasmine	Jenna	Jonathan
Aasha	X	4.7%	4.8%	7.1%	4.8%	4.8%	4.8%	4.8%
Amber	4.7%	X	4.7%	6.9%	4.7%	4.7%	4.7%	4.7%
Basit	4.8%	4.7%	X	7.1%	4.8%	4.8%	4.8%	28.0%
Brandon	7.1%	6.9%	7.1%	X	7.1%	7.1%	7.1%	7.1%
Danny	4.8%	4.7%	4.8%	7.1%	X	4.8%	4.8%	4.8%
Jasmine	4.8%	4.7%	4.8%	7.1%	4.8%	X	28.0%	4.8%
Jenna	4.8%	4.7%	4.8%	7.1%	4.8%	28.0%	X	4.8%
Jonathan	4.8%	4.7%	28.0%	7.1%	4.8%	4.8%	4.8%	X
Justin	5.0%	5.0%	5.0%	7.5%	5.0%	5.0%	5.0%	5.0%
Kai	4.8%	4.7%	4.8%	7.1%	28.0%	4.8%	4.8%	4.8%
Kari	4.8%	4.7%	4.8%	7.1%	4.8%	4.8%	4.8%	4.8%
Kylie	4.8%	4.7%	4.8%	7.1%	4.8%	4.8%	4.8%	4.8%
Max	4.7%	4.5%	4.7%	6.9%	4.7%	4.7%	4.7%	4.7%
Nour	5.0%	30.0%	5.0%	7.5%	5.0%	5.0%	5.0%	5.0%
Paige	28.0%	4.7%	4.8%	7.1%	4.8%	4.8%	4.8%	4.8%
Remy	7.1%	6.9%	7.1%	X	7.1%	7.1%	7.1%	7.1%
	Justin	Kai	Kari	Kylie	Max	Nour	Paige	Remy
Aasha	5.0%	4.8%	4.8%	4.8%	4.7%	5.0%	28.0%	7.1%
Amber	5.0%	4.7%	4.7%	4.7%	4.5%	30.0%	4.7%	6.9%
Basit	5.0%	4.8%	4.8%	4.8%	4.7%	5.0%	4.8%	7.1%
Brandon	7.5%	7.1%	7.1%	7.1%	6.9%	7.5%	7.1%	X
Danny	5.0%	28.0%	4.8%	4.8%	4.7%	5.0%	4.8%	7.1%
Jasmine	5.0%	4.8%	4.8%	4.8%	4.7%	5.0%	4.8%	7.1%
Jenna	5.0%	4.8%	4.8%	4.8%	4.7%	5.0%	4.8%	7.1%
Jonathan	5.0%	4.8%	4.8%	4.8%	4.7%	5.0%	4.8%	7.1%
Justin	X	5.0%	5.0%	5.0%	30.0%	X	5.0%	7.5%
Kai	5.0%	X	4.8%	4.8%	4.7%	5.0%	4.8%	7.1%
Kari	5.0%	4.8%	X	28.0%	4.7%	5.0%	4.8%	7.1%
Kylie	5.0%	4.8%	28.0%	X	4.7%	5.0%	4.8%	7.1%
Max	30.0%	4.7%	4.7%	4.7%	X	5.0%	4.7%	6.9%
Nour	X	5.0%	5.0%	5.0%	5.0%	X	5.0%	7.5%
Paige	5.0%	4.8%	4.8%	4.8%	4.7%	5.0%	X	7.1%
Remy	7.5%	7.1%	7.1%	7.1%	6.9%	7.5%	7.1%	X

Matchup Ceremony #2

• Kai - Jenna
• Basit - Jonathan (repeat from ceremony 1)
• Justin - Jasmine
• Amber - Nour (repeat from ceremony 1)
• Kylie - Kari (repeat from ceremony 1)
• Brandon - Aasha
• Remy - Danny
• Max - Paige

Blackout probability: 24.3% (29,410 of 120,800)
Instant win possible: No, repeated 3 couples from ceremony 1
Maximum number of lights: 6
Most likely number of lights: 1

2 beams means 26,907 possibilities remain.

	Aasha	Amber	Basit	Brandon	Danny	Jasmine	Jenna	Jonathan
Aasha	X	3.8%	4.1%	15.3%	5.9%	6.6%	6.6%	4.1%
Amber	3.8%	X	2.4%	4.9%	3.8%	4.1%	4.1%	2.4%
Basit	4.1%	2.4%	X	5.2%	4.1%	4.4%	4.3%	45.2%
Brandon	15.3%	4.9%	5.2%	X	7.2%	7.8%	7.7%	5.2%
Danny	5.9%	3.8%	4.1%	7.2%	X	6.4%	6.0%	4.1%
Jasmine	6.6%	4.1%	4.4%	7.8%	6.4%	X	15.0%	4.4%
Jenna	6.6%	4.1%	4.3%	7.7%	6.0%	15.0%	X	4.3%
Jonathan	4.1%	2.4%	45.2%	5.2%	4.1%	4.4%	4.3%	X
Justin	6.6%	4.5%	4.5%	8.1%	6.8%	10.4%	6.9%	4.5%
Kai	6.4%	4.1%	4.3%	7.5%	15.0%	6.5%	10.3%	4.3%
Kari	4.1%	2.4%	2.6%	5.2%	4.1%	4.4%	4.3%	2.6%
Kylie	4.1%	2.4%	2.6%	5.2%	4.1%	4.4%	4.3%	2.6%
Max	6.0%	4.0%	4.3%	7.6%	6.5%	6.5%	6.9%	4.3%
Nour	4.2%	48.2%	2.6%	5.4%	4.2%	4.5%	4.4%	2.6%
Paige	15.0%	4.1%	4.3%	7.3%	6.4%	6.9%	7.1%	4.3%
Remy	7.3%	4.9%	5.2%	X	15.4%	7.7%	7.6%	5.2%
	Justin	Kai	Kari	Kylie	Max	Nour	Paige	Remy
Aasha	6.6%	6.4%	4.1%	4.1%	6.0%	4.2%	15.0%	7.3%
Amber	4.5%	4.1%	2.4%	2.4%	4.0%	48.2%	4.1%	4.9%
Basit	4.5%	4.3%	2.6%	2.6%	4.3%	2.6%	4.3%	5.2%
Brandon	8.1%	7.5%	5.2%	5.2%	7.6%	5.4%	7.3%	X
Danny	6.8%	15.0%	4.1%	4.1%	6.5%	4.2%	6.4%	15.4%
Jasmine	10.4%	6.5%	4.4%	4.4%	6.5%	4.5%	6.9%	7.7%
Jenna	6.9%	10.3%	4.3%	4.3%	6.9%	4.4%	7.1%	7.6%
Jonathan	4.5%	4.3%	2.6%	2.6%	4.3%	2.6%	4.3%	5.2%
Justin	X	7.2%	4.5%	4.5%	16.3%	X	6.8%	8.3%
Kai	7.2%	X	4.3%	4.3%	7.0%	4.4%	7.0%	7.3%
Kari	4.5%	4.3%	X	45.2%	4.3%	2.6%	4.3%	5.2%
Kylie	4.5%	4.3%	45.2%	X	4.3%	2.6%	4.3%	5.2%
Max	16.3%	7.0%	4.3%	4.3%	X	4.4%	10.0%	7.7%
Nour	X	4.4%	2.6%	2.6%	4.4%	X	4.4%	5.4%
Paige	6.8%	7.0%	4.3%	4.3%	10.0%	4.4%	X	7.6%
Remy	8.3%	7.3%	5.2%	5.2%	7.7%	5.4%	7.6%	X