Here I'll be keeping track of the possible remaining perfect match combinations (with the help of a computer), and looking into the potential strategy of playing this game. The math work here will be independent of the romance and excitement that comes with the pairings. Unless noted otherwise, assume the probabilities of a matchup here being successful are random, ignoring chemistry and all the parts of the show that are actually fun.
We'll have to watch closely as some of the rules may be different this season...
Prize and Probability of Winning
All 16 winners will split a 30-year annuity that will pay out $1,000,000. That means if they elect to take the present day "lump sum," they'll end up with around $32,000 each (in addition to a shot at finding their perfect match and getting some weekly face time on MTV).The blackout rule, introduced in season 3, reduces the prize by $250,000 if a matchup ceremony results in no lights other than truth booths.
The number of possible permutations in this season's game is 2,027,025 - read this post for an explanation of why!
Put simply, a random guess would have a 1 in 2,027,025 chance of winning (0.00000049333%). The calculations done here throughout the season evaluate all of those 2,027,025 possibilities against the information that's been shared through truth booths and matchup ceremonies to figure out the set of perfect matches. The easy way of saying it: I use a computer program to do a process of elimination in seconds.
The show has multiple challenges where additional information is provided, reducing the number of possible combinations. The contestants only have 10 episodes to find the perfect match, so they'll need to reduce it quickly to have a chance.
Live Blog
Double episode tonight, so we'll need to catch up on the presidential debate on YouTube tomorrow...
Welcome to Season 8 - Come One, Come All.
We have fewer possible combinations this season than any other season - BUT - each contestant has 15 possible matches, which is harder for each individual to figure out.
9:04: Jonathan is a bank manager! Don't judge a book by its cover... great hair.
9:06: Looks like I have to keep track of pronouns... Basit is they / them (but prefers Basit). Kai is nongender, he / him / they / them.
9:10: Paige is coming out for the first time on the show. Amber kept her girlfriend a secret from her dad for 6 years!
9:12: Danny's claiming this game is 345 times harder than any previous season? Wondering where he came up with that number... maybe he thought there were 20 contestants? That would have had 16 times more possibilities. Maybe he did some math on win probability?
9:22: Jenna and Kai's kiss on the cheek escalates quickly!
9:24: Is Nour the first divorcee on the show?
9:27: Remy introduces himself as this season's drama leader... he is looking to be involved with everyone... wants to slide in between Jenna and Kai and make it messy.
9:31: Amber and Nour are the next week 1 couple. Justin sad he isn't getting a shot at Nour, but Jonathan is ready for him. I get Jonathan as the bank manager now with the hair up.
9:32: Danny is a software developer and data analyst. I guess this is as close as you'll get to me being on the show??
9:39: Welcome to the show, Dr. Frankie!
9:40: This might be the most complicated challenge ever. Overcome literal hurdles of relationships (or go under if you haven't). Pick up bags of dirt representing baggage. Tandem walking through a relationship minefield. Feels like this could have been three separate challenges!
9:41: Justin has boxed Amber out of Nour.
9:42: Basit and Kylie are in sync, but a lot of other contestants are eating it.
9:43: Your first challenge winners - Basit and Kylie, Jasmine and Paige, Justin and Nour.
9:51: The getaway this week is a kayaking adventure. Looks like a lot of fun!
9:54: Basit's drag name is Dion Slay. Nice!
Truth Booth #1
10:01: No surprise, it's Justin and Nour. As the first couple going into the Truth Booth they have a 6.7% (1 in 15) chance of being a perfect match.
10:03: Jonathan says this single truth booth is going to solve everything... riiight...
10:08: No match! 1,891,890 possibilities remain.
Doing split tables this year to try to fit better on the screen, let me know how you like it. Because of the way this season works, you can read the table either left-to-right or up-and-down.
| Aasha | Amber | Basit | Brandon | Danny | Jasmine | Jenna | Jonathan | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aasha | X | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% |
| Amber | 6.6% | X | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% |
| Basit | 6.6% | 6.6% | X | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% |
| Brandon | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | X | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% |
| Danny | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | X | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% |
| Jasmine | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | X | 6.6% | 6.6% |
| Jenna | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | X | 6.6% |
| Jonathan | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | X |
| Justin | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% |
| Kai | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% |
| Kari | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% |
| Kylie | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% |
| Max | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% |
| Nour | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% |
| Paige | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% |
| Remy | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% |
| Justin | Kai | Kari | Kylie | Max | Nour | Paige | Remy | |
| Aasha | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.6% |
| Amber | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.6% |
| Basit | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.6% |
| Brandon | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.6% |
| Danny | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.6% |
| Jasmine | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.6% |
| Jenna | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.6% |
| Jonathan | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.6% |
| Justin | X | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% | X | 7.1% | 7.1% |
| Kai | 7.1% | X | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.6% |
| Kari | 7.1% | 6.6% | X | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.6% |
| Kylie | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.6% | X | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.6% |
| Max | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | X | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.6% |
| Nour | X | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% | X | 7.1% | 7.1% |
| Paige | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.1% | X | 6.6% |
| Remy | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.6% | X |
10:15: Apparently Kai is also trying to move on everyone in the house. Not a bad strategy, honestly!
10:19: Jenna takes advantage of Kai's attention fraying to escalate... and we have our first visit to the Boom Boom Room!
10:24: Kari starting to feel out Kylie, who's feels like she's spent more time with Basit... some people feel like they're not making moves, but they haven't been in the house very long.
10:28: Remy and Kai hook up!! Kai is back in the Boom Boom Room with someone different in 2 hours... is this a record? And then he goes back to hold Jenna while she sleeps!
10:43: Dr. Frankie time.
Matchup Ceremony #1
- Nour - Amber
- Kari - Kylie
- Max - Justin
- Basit - Jonathan
- Aasha - Paige
- Remy - Brandon
- Jasmine - Jenna
- Kai - Danny
10:55: This tea!
10:56: Danny's matchup outfit 😂 - so square. He's excited for Kai but not vice-versa. No man-woman matches!
10:57: This year's blackout rule is that your prize is cut by $250,000. Lighter penalty for the first blackout, harder for the third. And Max gets it right - the odds of a blackout are higher than ever before. In fact, it's more likely to be a blackout than not. And a blackout tells them the least amount of information since it's the most likely outcome.
Blackout probability: 58.4% (1,105,624 of 1,891,890)
Instant win possible: Yes
Most likely number of lights: 0 (blackout)
11:02: 2 beams means 160,060 combinations left.
| Aasha | Amber | Basit | Brandon | Danny | Jasmine | Jenna | Jonathan | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aasha | X | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.4% |
| Amber | 5.2% | X | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.2% |
| Basit | 5.4% | 5.2% | X | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 24.5% |
| Brandon | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.4% | X | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.4% |
| Danny | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.4% | X | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.4% |
| Jasmine | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.4% | X | 24.5% | 5.4% |
| Jenna | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 24.5% | X | 5.4% |
| Jonathan | 5.4% | 5.2% | 24.5% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.4% | X |
| Justin | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% |
| Kai | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 24.5% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.4% |
| Kari | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.4% |
| Kylie | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.4% |
| Max | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.2% |
| Nour | 5.7% | 26.4% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% |
| Paige | 24.5% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.4% |
| Remy | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 24.5% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.4% |
| Justin | Kai | Kari | Kylie | Max | Nour | Paige | Remy | |
| Aasha | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 24.5% | 5.4% |
| Amber | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 26.4% | 5.2% | 5.2% |
| Basit | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.4% |
| Brandon | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 24.5% |
| Danny | 5.7% | 24.5% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.4% |
| Jasmine | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.4% |
| Jenna | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.4% |
| Jonathan | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.4% |
| Justin | X | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 26.4% | X | 5.7% | 5.7% |
| Kai | 5.7% | X | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.4% |
| Kari | 5.7% | 5.4% | X | 24.5% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.4% |
| Kylie | 5.7% | 5.4% | 24.5% | X | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.4% |
| Max | 26.4% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.2% | X | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.2% |
| Nour | X | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | X | 5.7% | 5.7% |
| Paige | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.7% | X | 5.4% |
| Remy | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.4% | X |
11:03: No live blog next week.
Love your blog! Im so confused about how we should do the tables, I was thinking of a 16x16, but you split your table. Hope we have a good season! Regards!
ReplyDeleteIn the spirit of the new season of AYTO, please make one minor edit to reflect the non-binary individuals in the show. Instead of saying "features 16 men and women" I suggest you say "16 people, individuals, hopefuls, etc.".
ReplyDeleteThanks for the suggestion - updated!
DeleteYeah I was also going to say instead of saying "man-woman pairs" you can say opposite sex, same sex pairs. I think a non-binary and a female or non-binary and a male still would count as opposite sex...semantically.
DeleteHi guava, I'm focusing on gender here rather than sex. I do think it is accurate that there are no man-woman pairs in the first matchup ceremony. I'm not sure it would be accurate to say they are all same-gender pairs due to those identifying as non-binary.
DeleteAs always- you blog is the most fun aspect of the show!
ReplyDeleteLove the blog! Thanks for doing it again this season. The puzzle/probability aspect is one of the main draws for me. My favorite AYTO podcast looks like taking the season off so I appreciate this blog even more than usual.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteThis blog is my absolute favorite part about watching AYTO! The math behind all the drama is so intriguing to me. Do you have this tables in excel and then input the matches each episode (a spreadsheet)? If you do, would you be willing to share it?
ReplyDeleteI use a computer program, not a spreadsheet. The computer program does take match information in as an input and returns a variety of outputs, one of which is the table I post after each Truth Booth or Matchup Ceremony. You can copy and paste the table you see above and put it into Excel if you'd like.
DeleteFirst I want to say I love your blog and I have been following it for years!
ReplyDelete9:40: This might be the most complicated challenge ever. Overcome literal hurdles of relationships (or go under if you haven't). Pick up bags of dirt representing baggage. Tandem walking through a relationship minefield. Feels like this could have been three separate challenges!
--I wondered while watching: how can they/ did they verify that people were telling the truth? If I were playing I would just go under all the hurdles except one; how would they know I wasn't lying about what things I've dealt with in relationships? The sandbag part makes sense cause you have to grab 3 sandbags regardless of what they say. But for the hurdles it said you only have to jump over the ones you personally experienced. Strategy would say to lie/cheat and just go under most of the hurdles lol.
10:28: Remy and Kai hook up!! Kai is back in the Boom Boom Room with someone different in 2 hours... is this a record? And then he goes back to hold Jenna while she sleeps!
--This bothered me that Kai didn't bother to brush his teeth or wash up and just jumps in the bed with Jenna. I thought that was quite rude.
10:45: New stage for this year since nobody starts seated!
--So I'm confused about how they are doing the order and how they are keeping track of who gets to pick so that it is fair every week. Or is it just completely random? At first I thought they would do like a femme leaning vs masc leaning nights but I guess that's not fair to the people who identify right down the middle. Anyways, I wish Terrance would have explained this!
In past seasons, obviously, we would have alternating weeks, where girls would pick boys one week, and then the next week it would switch. However, we were never told how they determined the order of who got to pick first each week.
DeleteIt is my understanding that the producers interview the cast each week and ask (or make) them who their top picks are going to be. Then they juggle the cast to give the most dramatic results (I would assume).
So my guess is that they are going to throw gender out the window, but that each week you will see all of the "safe" picks come up first. That is, pairs who only appear to be interested in one another will magically come up first each week. This will leave the "love triangles" (or hexagons), where someone will be forced to either make a decision or break up a couple.
Even though there are, blessedly, fewer possible configurations this year, it seems that it's still a more difficult season, due to this point you made: it's harder for each individual to figure out who their match is. This is behind those higher blackout odds (yikes!!!), and it will also make it VERY difficult to get positive results in the truth booth. I assume this is why they have the new "love doctor" around. They'll set up situations for her to "help" certain folks "figure out" their perfect match, in order to force some more true matches into the truth booth and make the whole stupid rigged show more plausible. I love it. Looking forward to following the season here.
ReplyDeletelove your blog and thank you so much for doing this! i have only one question, how is it possible that Nour and Justin had 1/15 chance to be a perfect match? isn't it supposed to be a much smaller chance on the first try since they can match with anyone else?
ReplyDeleteAt the beginning of the game, every contestant has a 1/15 chance to match with any other contestant. Taking Nour for example, she has 15 possible people to match with. Justin is one of those people, giving them a 1/15 chance to be a perfect match. As the game moves forward, it's possible for the chances to be lower than 1/15, based on the amount of lights and truth booths. At the beginning though with all things equal, every individual perfect match has a 1/15 chance.
ReplyDeleteWhat computer program do you use?
ReplyDeleteWhy is there only one Jax possibility? Aren't there three?
ReplyDeleteAasha-Brandon, Basit-Jonathan, Nour-Jasmine, Justin-Max, Paige-Amber, and then one of the following three combos:
Kai-Remy, Danny-Kari, Kylie-Jenna
Kai-Remy, Danny-Kylie, Jenna-Kari
Kai-Kylie, Danny-Kari, Jenna-Remy