9:06: Jasmine and Kai are hitting it off! Physically, for sure.
9:07: The couples who have repeated a lot need to go into the Truth Booth to resolve some of the discrepancies. Identifying any of the beams from the past ceremonies is a big step.
9:08: Basit and Amber emerging as the most level-headed, direct, honest people in the house.
9:10: Max and Justin in the Boom Boom Room, and it looks like Kai and Jasmine will take the next step too in the shower.
9:15: A lot of the long-standing couples are getting together for the challenge, which involves popping the most balloons. Justin and Max (11.2%) take the clear lead with fast, repeatable technique. Remy and Basit (17.1%) pull ahead of Kylie and Kari (74.6%), who end up being the third possibility for the Truth Booth. A lot of strong couples going in!
9:18: Jasmine and Kai are magnetic right now. Paige walks in on them in the shower!
9:24: Aasha doesn't know who she's with. Thinking maybe Brandon?
9:26: The date is paddleboarding! Meanwhile, the house is split between Justin - Max and Kari - Kylie. Producers focusing heavily on Justin and Max...
Truth Booth #5
9:36: It's Kari and Kylie going to the Truth Booth.
No match without a commercial break! That leaves 400 possibilities and a lot of inferred no matches are on the board. Kai and Danny emerging as one of the biggest couples because they've been repeated twice.
| Aasha | Amber | Basit | Brandon | Danny | Jasmine | Jenna | Jonathan | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aasha | X | 0.5% | 4.8% | 22.2% | 0.2% | 4.2% | 7.0% | 4.5% |
| Amber | 0.5% | X | X | 1.8% | X | 0.5% | 0.5% | X |
| Basit | 4.8% | X | X | 4.0% | X | 5.2% | 4.5% | 27.3% |
| Brandon | 22.2% | 1.8% | 4.0% | X | 2.2% | 2.0% | 6.2% | 25.8% |
| Danny | 0.2% | X | X | 2.2% | X | 2.0% | X | X |
| Jasmine | 4.2% | 0.5% | 5.2% | 2.0% | 2.0% | X | 4.8% | 6.0% |
| Jenna | 7.0% | 0.5% | 4.5% | 6.2% | X | 4.8% | X | 6.0% |
| Jonathan | 4.5% | X | 27.3% | 25.8% | X | 6.0% | 6.0% | X |
| Justin | 3.5% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 0.2% | 29.8% | 34.0% | 3.0% |
| Kai | 1.0% | X | 1.0% | 3.0% | 79.0% | 2.5% | X | X |
| Kari | 8.5% | 2.2% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 4.0% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 7.8% |
| Kylie | 8.5% | 2.5% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 3.0% | 10.5% | 10.8% | 0.2% |
| Max | 23.5% | 0.8% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 0.2% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 5.0% |
| Nour | 0.5% | 82.8% | X | 1.8% | X | 8.0% | 0.5% | X |
| Paige | 4.0% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 1.8% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 7.5% |
| Remy | 7.0% | 1.5% | 24.0% | X | 7.2% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 7.0% |
| Justin | Kai | Kari | Kylie | Max | Nour | Paige | Remy | |
| Aasha | 3.5% | 1.0% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 23.5% | 0.5% | 4.0% | 7.0% |
| Amber | 1.2% | X | 2.2% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 82.8% | 5.8% | 1.5% |
| Basit | 2.2% | 1.0% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 4.0% | X | 6.0% | 24.0% |
| Brandon | 2.8% | 3.0% | 10.2% | 10.5% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 5.0% | X |
| Danny | 0.2% | 79.0% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 0.2% | X | 1.8% | 7.2% |
| Jasmine | 29.8% | 2.5% | 9.8% | 10.5% | 3.5% | 8.0% | 4.5% | 6.8% |
| Jenna | 34.0% | X | 10.2% | 10.8% | 5.5% | 0.5% | 4.5% | 5.5% |
| Jonathan | 3.0% | X | 7.8% | 0.2% | 5.0% | X | 7.5% | 7.0% |
| Justin | X | 1.0% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 2.2% | X | 2.2% | 3.0% |
| Kai | 1.0% | X | 1.2% | 5.2% | 1.0% | X | 2.0% | 3.0% |
| Kari | 7.2% | 1.2% | X | X | 7.8% | 2.5% | 9.2% | 11.0% |
| Kylie | 7.5% | 5.2% | X | X | 8.5% | 2.5% | 9.8% | 11.8% |
| Max | 2.2% | 1.0% | 7.8% | 8.5% | X | 0.5% | 30.8% | 4.2% |
| Nour | X | X | 2.5% | 2.5% | 0.5% | X | X | 1.0% |
| Paige | 2.2% | 2.0% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 30.8% | X | X | 7.0% |
| Remy | 3.0% | 3.0% | 11.0% | 11.8% | 4.2% | 1.0% | 7.0% | X |
9:43: Dr. Frankie in for a pep talk.
Matchup Ceremony #5
9:47: Terrence J directly challenges Amber's past behavior of giving people multiple chances... Justin not happy with it. But probably made even worse when not picked by Jonathan!
- Kylie - Jenna
- Nour - Amber (repeat from ceremonies 1, 2, and 4)
- Jonathan - Justin
- Max - Brandon
- Basit - Remy (repeat from ceremony 3)
- Danny - Kari
- Paige - Jasmine
- Kai - Aasha
Instant win possible: No, repeated only 1 couple from ceremony 1
Maximum number of lights: 5
Most likely number of lights: 1
9:55: 5 beams would mean we would know all of the perfect matches.
10:00: BLACKOUT! The prize goes down to $750,000 and 55 combinations are left. We have our first inferred perfect match: Basit and Jonathan! They were one of the beams in each of the first two ceremonies.
| Aasha | Amber | Basit | Brandon | Danny | Jasmine | Jenna | Jonathan | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aasha | X | 3.6% | X | 20.0% | X | X | 1.8% | X |
| Amber | 3.6% | X | X | 10.9% | X | 3.6% | 3.6% | X |
| Basit | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | Match |
| Brandon | 20.0% | 10.9% | X | X | X | 14.5% | 9.1% | X |
| Danny | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X |
| Jasmine | X | 3.6% | X | 14.5% | X | X | 3.6% | X |
| Jenna | 1.8% | 3.6% | X | 9.1% | X | 3.6% | X | X |
| Jonathan | X | X | Match | X | X | X | X | X |
| Justin | X | 5.5% | X | 3.6% | X | 29.1% | 29.1% | X |
| Kai | X | X | X | 1.8% | 85.5% | X | X | X |
| Kari | 5.5% | 14.5% | X | 12.7% | X | 3.6% | 12.7% | X |
| Kylie | 5.5% | 16.4% | X | 16.4% | 1.8% | 3.6% | X | X |
| Max | 18.2% | 5.5% | X | X | X | X | 3.6% | X |
| Nour | 3.6% | X | X | 10.9% | X | 41.8% | 3.6% | X |
| Paige | 3.6% | 25.5% | X | X | X | X | 32.7% | X |
| Remy | 38.2% | 10.9% | X | X | 12.7% | X | X | X |
| Justin | Kai | Kari | Kylie | Max | Nour | Paige | Remy | |
| Aasha | X | X | 5.5% | 5.5% | 18.2% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 38.2% |
| Amber | 5.5% | X | 14.5% | 16.4% | 5.5% | X | 25.5% | 10.9% |
| Basit | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X |
| Brandon | 3.6% | 1.8% | 12.7% | 16.4% | X | 10.9% | X | X |
| Danny | X | 85.5% | X | 1.8% | X | X | X | 12.7% |
| Jasmine | 29.1% | X | 3.6% | 3.6% | X | 41.8% | X | X |
| Jenna | 29.1% | X | 12.7% | X | 3.6% | 3.6% | 32.7% | X |
| Jonathan | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X |
| Justin | X | X | 9.1% | 12.7% | 7.3% | X | X | 3.6% |
| Kai | X | X | 7.3% | 3.6% | X | X | X | 1.8% |
| Kari | 9.1% | 7.3% | X | X | 9.1% | 14.5% | X | 10.9% |
| Kylie | 12.7% | 3.6% | X | X | 12.7% | 16.4% | X | 10.9% |
| Max | 7.3% | X | 9.1% | 12.7% | X | 1.8% | 38.2% | 3.6% |
| Nour | X | X | 14.5% | 16.4% | 1.8% | X | X | 7.3% |
| Paige | X | X | X | X | 38.2% | X | X | X |
| Remy | 3.6% | 1.8% | 10.9% | 10.9% | 3.6% | 7.3% | X | X |
Your new power couples: Danny & Kai and Jasmine & Nour. Max & Justin still a possibility. Jasmine & Kai not.
Your 55 possible combinations after the jump:
- Aasha-Amber, Brandon-Jasmine, Danny-Kai, Jenna-Justin, Kari-Nour, Kylie-Remy, Max-Paige
- Aasha-Amber, Brandon-Jasmine, Danny-Kai, Jenna-Justin, Kari-Remy, Kylie-Nour, Max-Paige
- Aasha-Brandon, Amber-Justin, Danny-Kai, Jasmine-Nour, Jenna-Paige, Kari-Max, Kylie-Remy
- Aasha-Brandon, Amber-Justin, Danny-Kai, Jasmine-Nour, Jenna-Paige, Kari-Remy, Kylie-Max
- Aasha-Brandon, Amber-Kari, Danny-Kai, Jasmine-Nour, Jenna-Paige, Justin-Kylie, Max-Remy
- Aasha-Brandon, Amber-Kari, Danny-Kai, Jasmine-Nour, Jenna-Paige, Justin-Remy, Kylie-Max
- Aasha-Brandon, Amber-Kylie, Danny-Kai, Jasmine-Nour, Jenna-Paige, Justin-Kari, Max-Remy
- Aasha-Brandon, Amber-Kylie, Danny-Kai, Jasmine-Nour, Jenna-Paige, Justin-Remy, Kari-Max
- Aasha-Brandon, Amber-Max, Danny-Kai, Jasmine-Nour, Jenna-Paige, Justin-Kari, Kylie-Remy
- Aasha-Brandon, Amber-Max, Danny-Kai, Jasmine-Nour, Jenna-Paige, Justin-Kylie, Kari-Remy
- Aasha-Brandon, Amber-Paige, Danny-Kylie, Jasmine-Nour, Jenna-Kari, Justin-Max, Kai-Remy
- Aasha-Brandon, Amber-Remy, Danny-Kai, Jasmine-Nour, Jenna-Paige, Justin-Kari, Kylie-Max
- Aasha-Brandon, Amber-Remy, Danny-Kai, Jasmine-Nour, Jenna-Paige, Justin-Kylie, Kari-Max
- Aasha-Jenna, Amber-Paige, Brandon-Kari, Danny-Remy, Jasmine-Nour, Justin-Max, Kai-Kylie
- Aasha-Kari, Amber-Kylie, Brandon-Jasmine, Danny-Kai, Jenna-Justin, Max-Paige, Nour-Remy
- Aasha-Kari, Amber-Paige, Brandon-Jenna, Danny-Remy, Jasmine-Nour, Justin-Max, Kai-Kylie
- Aasha-Kari, Amber-Remy, Brandon-Jasmine, Danny-Kai, Jenna-Justin, Kylie-Nour, Max-Paige
- Aasha-Kylie, Amber-Kari, Brandon-Jasmine, Danny-Kai, Jenna-Justin, Max-Paige, Nour-Remy
- Aasha-Kylie, Amber-Paige, Brandon-Kai, Danny-Remy, Jasmine-Nour, Jenna-Kari, Justin-Max
- Aasha-Kylie, Amber-Remy, Brandon-Jasmine, Danny-Kai, Jenna-Justin, Kari-Nour, Max-Paige
- Aasha-Max, Amber-Brandon, Danny-Kai, Jasmine-Justin, Jenna-Paige, Kari-Nour, Kylie-Remy
- Aasha-Max, Amber-Brandon, Danny-Kai, Jasmine-Justin, Jenna-Paige, Kari-Remy, Kylie-Nour
- Aasha-Max, Amber-Kari, Brandon-Kylie, Danny-Kai, Jasmine-Justin, Jenna-Paige, Nour-Remy
- Aasha-Max, Amber-Kari, Brandon-Nour, Danny-Kai, Jasmine-Justin, Jenna-Paige, Kylie-Remy
- Aasha-Max, Amber-Kylie, Brandon-Kari, Danny-Kai, Jasmine-Justin, Jenna-Paige, Nour-Remy
- Aasha-Max, Amber-Kylie, Brandon-Nour, Danny-Kai, Jasmine-Justin, Jenna-Paige, Kari-Remy
- Aasha-Max, Amber-Paige, Brandon-Justin, Danny-Remy, Jasmine-Jenna, Kai-Kari, Kylie-Nour
- Aasha-Max, Amber-Paige, Brandon-Nour, Danny-Remy, Jasmine-Jenna, Justin-Kylie, Kai-Kari
- Aasha-Max, Amber-Remy, Brandon-Kari, Danny-Kai, Jasmine-Justin, Jenna-Paige, Kylie-Nour
- Aasha-Max, Amber-Remy, Brandon-Kylie, Danny-Kai, Jasmine-Justin, Jenna-Paige, Kari-Nour
- Aasha-Nour, Amber-Kari, Brandon-Jasmine, Danny-Kai, Jenna-Justin, Kylie-Remy, Max-Paige
- Aasha-Nour, Amber-Kylie, Brandon-Jasmine, Danny-Kai, Jenna-Justin, Kari-Remy, Max-Paige
- Aasha-Paige, Amber-Brandon, Danny-Remy, Jasmine-Nour, Jenna-Justin, Kai-Kari, Kylie-Max
- Aasha-Paige, Amber-Max, Brandon-Kylie, Danny-Remy, Jasmine-Nour, Jenna-Justin, Kai-Kari
- Aasha-Remy, Amber-Brandon, Danny-Kai, Jasmine-Kari, Jenna-Justin, Kylie-Nour, Max-Paige
- Aasha-Remy, Amber-Brandon, Danny-Kai, Jasmine-Kylie, Jenna-Justin, Kari-Nour, Max-Paige
- Aasha-Remy, Amber-Brandon, Danny-Kai, Jasmine-Nour, Jenna-Kari, Justin-Kylie, Max-Paige
- Aasha-Remy, Amber-Jasmine, Brandon-Kari, Danny-Kai, Jenna-Justin, Kylie-Nour, Max-Paige
- Aasha-Remy, Amber-Jasmine, Brandon-Kylie, Danny-Kai, Jenna-Justin, Kari-Nour, Max-Paige
- Aasha-Remy, Amber-Jenna, Brandon-Kari, Danny-Kai, Jasmine-Nour, Justin-Kylie, Max-Paige
- Aasha-Remy, Amber-Jenna, Brandon-Kylie, Danny-Kai, Jasmine-Nour, Justin-Kari, Max-Paige
- Aasha-Remy, Amber-Justin, Brandon-Kylie, Danny-Kai, Jasmine-Nour, Jenna-Kari, Max-Paige
- Aasha-Remy, Amber-Kari, Brandon-Jenna, Danny-Kai, Jasmine-Nour, Justin-Kylie, Max-Paige
- Aasha-Remy, Amber-Kari, Brandon-Nour, Danny-Kai, Jasmine-Kylie, Jenna-Justin, Max-Paige
- Aasha-Remy, Amber-Kylie, Brandon-Jenna, Danny-Kai, Jasmine-Nour, Justin-Kari, Max-Paige
- Aasha-Remy, Amber-Kylie, Brandon-Justin, Danny-Kai, Jasmine-Nour, Jenna-Kari, Max-Paige
- Aasha-Remy, Amber-Kylie, Brandon-Nour, Danny-Kai, Jasmine-Kari, Jenna-Justin, Max-Paige
- Aasha-Remy, Amber-Paige, Brandon-Jenna, Danny-Kai, Jasmine-Justin, Kari-Max, Kylie-Nour
- Aasha-Remy, Amber-Paige, Brandon-Jenna, Danny-Kai, Jasmine-Justin, Kari-Nour, Kylie-Max
- Aasha-Remy, Amber-Paige, Brandon-Kari, Danny-Kai, Jasmine-Justin, Jenna-Max, Kylie-Nour
- Aasha-Remy, Amber-Paige, Brandon-Kari, Danny-Kai, Jasmine-Justin, Jenna-Nour, Kylie-Max
- Aasha-Remy, Amber-Paige, Brandon-Kylie, Danny-Kai, Jasmine-Justin, Jenna-Kari, Max-Nour
- Aasha-Remy, Amber-Paige, Brandon-Kylie, Danny-Kai, Jasmine-Justin, Jenna-Max, Kari-Nour
- Aasha-Remy, Amber-Paige, Brandon-Kylie, Danny-Kai, Jasmine-Justin, Jenna-Nour, Kari-Max
- Aasha-Remy, Amber-Paige, Brandon-Nour, Danny-Kai, Jasmine-Justin, Jenna-Kari, Kylie-Max
Jonathan is just too much like brahhhh he don’t want youuuu
ReplyDeleteSPEAK THE TRUTH REMY
ReplyDeleteJONATHAN YOU JERK
ReplyDeleteThis so sad... I can't believe that blackout probability actually happened...
ReplyDeleteWow...
ReplyDeleteHonestly if they didn't blackout they were probably going to lose, so it's for the best.
ReplyDeleteI actually agree with this. Sad that they had to lose money but hopefully Jonathan can move on from this Justin obsession and Nour can move on too.
DeleteSame, I agree. I knew Amber and Nour were not a match..they're just infatuated.
DeleteI always thought it'd be fitting that Jonathon & Basit were a match... I feel like Jonathon has been doing to Basit the EXACT thing he is complaining Justin was doing to him...
ReplyDeleteJonathon: I wish Justin would get past physical appearance and give me a chance based on our connection.
Basit: I wish Jonathon would get past physical appearance and give me a chance based on our connection.
So true! He doesn't even see the irony of it all.
DeleteThis.
DeleteThis is my prediction right here though: Aasha-Brandon, Amber-Paige, Basit-Jonathan, Danny-Kylie, Jasmine-Nour, Jenna-Kari, Justin-Max, Kai-Remy
ReplyDeleteSame!
DeleteSo glad we all agree, lol.
DeleteAgreed. Low probability for Justin-Max, but I don't know what im going to do if they aren't.
DeleteReally can't believe Jonathan did that! : (
ReplyDeleteI think so too!
DeleteThanks for making this blog. Seeing the numbers all written out makes it so much more fun.
ReplyDeleteI’m a little sad it’s not Basit/Danny, but glad it’s not Amber/Nour.
ReplyDeleteI'm bummed for Basit that it's Jonathan. Jonathan has been pushing Basit hurtfully away this whole time. Basit is the bomb and does not deserve that from his match.
ReplyDeleteI agree. Basit deserves better than messy, messy Jonathan.
DeleteJust a friendly reminder that if you need to use a pronoun, Basit uses they/them
DeleteYou're absolutely right, TJ. I was trying to avoid a pronoun and just use Basit, but I messed up and said "his match." I should have said "their match." Thanks for calling that out.
DeleteAre Max & Justin really only 7.3%? Who do we think the 1 beam from last week was?
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteMax and Justin, because I ship them. Jake, even though their chances of being a match are only 7.3%, that's pure probability. The outcome of the game isn't actually random. So, in fact, if Max and Justin are a match and can confirm that in the truth booth, it would reduce the possible solutions by 93% and pretty much bring it home by leaving only the 4 solutions where they are a match. In essence, the number of possible solutions is always reduced the most when an "unlikely" result is accurate; that's why Kari and Kylie not being a match--despite 74.6% chance that they were--reduced the possible solutions by so much, as did a blackout occurring despite only a 13.8% probability.
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ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
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ReplyDeletecan someone explain how we know jonathan and basit are a match? I know they were the only two who sat together the first and second ceremony but i don't see how that matters
ReplyDeleteBecause of all the 55 possible permutations, they're a match in every one of them
DeleteAlright, I'm thinking this out as I go.
DeleteThere were two beams in each of those first two ceremonies, right? Out of the eight couples that sat together in those ceremonies, three pairs have been ruled out. Kylie and Kari, Amber and Noir, Kai and Jenna. That means that two of the remaining five couples in the first match up ceremony and two of the remaining five couples in the second match up ceremony are correct.
From ceremony one, the possibilities that remain are: Max-Justin, Basit-Jonathan, Aasha-Paige, Remy-Brandon, Jasmine-Jenna, and Kai-Danny.
From ceremony two, the possibilities that remain are: Basit-Jonathan, Justin-Jasmine, Brandon-Aasha, Remy-Danny and Max-Paige.
So far, that's pretty straight forward. And they are the only couple in the possibly true couples to repeat. That is pretty telling, but not definitive because it could be that two other random couples each time was a match. So, how can we eliminate those as possibilities?
Let’s assume that Basit and Jonathan are not a match and pick a second couple at random that are. Could it be Remy and Brandon?
If so, then, looking at the second ceremony, both Brandon-Aasha and Remmy-Danny have to be wrong. That leaves us with two possible correct matches. Justin-Jasmine and Max-Paige.
Following through with that outcome, does the first ceremony still work? We’re saying it’s Remy-Brandon, but not Basit-Jonathan, Aasha-Paige, Jasmine-Jenna, Max-Justin. This scenario does seem to work thanks to two couples becoming three rather than four. It could be Kai-Danny and Remy-Brandon who are right in the first ceremony.
So, to me, it seems like we have a possibility at this point. It could be Remy-Brandon and Kai-Danny from the first ceremony and Justin-Jasmine and Max-Paige from the second. However, that’s only taking into account ceremonies one and two. Were any of those couples sitting together in ceremony five, the blackout? No. Also, none of those couples have gone into the truth booth. Those would be the easiest way to eliminate them as possibilities. But there are two other ceremonies to take into consideration.
In ceremony three, there are two beams and six couples that haven’t been ruled out by the black out. They are: Jonathan-Brandon, Aasha-Max, Paige-Amber, Kai-Danny, Jenna-Justin, and Jasmine-Nour.
Remi isn’t in any of those couples, but Brandon is in one. So, we’re down to five possibilities. Kai-Danny matched up again. It’s looking good for them.
Jenna-Justin wouldn’t work because Justin is spoken for. Down to four.
Jasmine-Nour also wouldn’t work because Jasmine is spoken for. Down to three.
Aasha-Max is out because Max is spoken for. Down to two.
Paige-Amber is out because Paige is spoken for. And now there is only one possible correct couple, but there are two beams, so this scenario does not work.
As it’s the only scenario that got us two beams in the first two ceremonies, assuming that Basit and Jonathan aren’t a match, we’ve disproved that scenario.
What it comes down to is simple elimination, but the program does it much faster than any of us can working through it like this. So, by the power of math and logic, Jonathan and Basit must be a match. As much as it pains me because Basit deserves someone who thinks Basit is awesome.
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DeleteWe know they are a match because Alex's algorithms, taking into account all revealed information, do not contain any solutions where they are not a match. But we can also work it through logically; N has done so above, but here is a slightly different way of working through the same information. (Now with one correction.)
DeleteOf the eight couples at the first ceremony, we know that the following are no-matches: Amber-Nour (from tonight's blackout), Brandon-Remy, and Kari-Kylie (both from truth booths). From the second ceremony, truth booths later revealed Jenna-Kai and Kari-Kylie to be no-matches. And with those couples excluded, there were no repeats between the first two ceremonies, other than Basit-Jonathan. So if Basit-Jonathan are not a match, then two of the following couples from the first ceremony must be a match: Aasha-Paige, Danny-Kai, Jasmine-Jenna, and Justin-Max. And two of the following couples from the second ceremony must be a match: Aasha-Brandon, Danny-Remy, Jasmine-Justin, and Max-Paige. We can run trials on pairs of possibilities from the first ceremony and check them against the second, to see if two valid couples are still left.
Aasha-Paige and Danny-Kai: Impossible because only Jasmine-Justin are left in #2.
Aasha-Paige and Jasmine-Jenna: Impossible because only Danny-Remy are left.
Aasha-Paige and Justin-Max: Impossible because only Danny-Remy are left.
Danny-Kai and Jasmine-Jenna: Possible, requires Aasha-Brandon and Max-Paige to be correct in #2. (So we’ll come back to that.)
Danny-Kai and Justin-Max: Impossible because only Aasha-Brandon are left.
Jasmine-Jenna and Justin-Max: Possible, requires Aasha-Brandon and Danny-Remy to be correct.
So now we have two scenarios to check. Suppose Danny-Kai and Jasmine-Jenna were correct in #1, and Aasha-Brandon and Max-Paige were correct in #2. If you then discount as no-matches every other couple from those weeks when they recurred in other weeks, and also discount every couple that included Danny, Kai, Jasmine, or Jenna with someone else, you end up with Danny-Kai as the only possible match in ceremony #3, which also had two beams. And if you suppose Jasmine-Jenna, Justin-Max, Aasha-Brandon, and Danny-Remy are the couples, you are likewise left with Amber-Paige as the only possible match in two-beam ceremony #3. Thus, assuming Basit-Jonathan are not a couple leaves no valid combinations of couples in ceremonies #1 and #2 that can also match the results of ceremony #3.
I thought Remy-Brandon was a confirmed no match in the truth booth?
Deletehow do we know remy and paige are not a match though??
ReplyDeletemath
DeleteWeek 1,
DeleteNO - Nour-Amber, Kari-Kylie, Remy-Brandon (and, if Remy-Paige, then Aasha-Paige are no)
YES - Basit-Jonathan
Since there were two beams, that means only 1 of the other 3 couples can be correct.
If it is Max-Justin, then in Week 2, the beams would have to be Basit-Jonathan and Brandon-Aasha (Kai-Jenna and Kylie-Kari no in truth booth, Amber-Nour no from blackout, Justin-Jasmine can't be because we said Max-Justin in week 1, Max-Paige and Danny-Remy no because we said they are a match). However, in week 3, the only viable option would be Jasmine-Nour, and since there were 2 beams that week, this scenario is dead.
If we said the other week 1 pair was Jasmine-Jenna, week 2 still ends with Brandon-Aasha as the other beam, and then only Danny-Kai in week 3, one couple short of the two beams they got, so that scenario is out.
Finally, if the other week 1 match was Kai-Danny, then Brandon-Aasha have to be the other match from week 2. This time, skip to week 4. Danny-Basit and Kylie-Jonathan can't be matches because we know Basit-Jonathan are; Amber-Nour aren't because they sat together for the blackout; Kari-Kai are confirmed by truth booth; Remy-Aasha and Jenna-Paige can't be since we are assuming Remy-Paige are a match; we eliminated Justin-Max in week 1. This leaves only Jasmine-Brandon, but we said Brandon-Aasha had to be a pair in week 2, so that means that we have no viable pairs to be the match we got in week 4, so this is out as well.
Since there is no scenario where Remy-Paige are a couple that can account for the results we have seen thus far (matchups and truth booths), they can't be a match.
Thanks TJ!
DeleteI'm going with #39. I don't know how much these scientists account for physical attraction, but I guessing it is not much. With that being said, I believe Kylie and Brandon is a PM. The reason why they didn't hook up when they are both physically attractive is because I get the feeling that Kylie is not attracted to muscular men. Both of them care about their physical appearance.
ReplyDeleteI think Nour and Kari is a PM because they are both loyal. Both are ride or die types. I also see some similarities between Kylie and Nour.
I choose Jenna/Justin mainly because it was in my original prediction. I don't know why. I believe Justin and Max is not a match.
Max and Paige is a PM because they both struggled with their sexuality.
Amber-Jasmine as a PM because they both seem open-minded(in the bedroom). Amber eventually has a threesome and Jasmine joined Jenna and Kai. I choose Aasha and Remy for a similar reason. Aasha and Remy seem more promiscuous than Amber and Jasmine.
Johnathan and Basit is basically a confirmed match and it makes sense because both don't take criticism lightly.
With that being said, I don't believe any PM is together. Maybe Kai/Danny or Basit/Johnathan, but I highly doubt it. These PMs are not attracted to each other. However, I believe the house do figure it all out.
On Max x Paige you think the expert could've said "Hey, this guy is struggling with the fact he is (also) attracted to men; while this girl just realized she (also) likes women... let's put them in a man/woman relationship".
DeleteI don't say they can't be on such a relationship; but it sounds like a reductionist conclusion for the matchmakers that cancels the potential narrative of either of them, specially for Max embracing the fact he likes people of any gender.
Dunno, it's true the numbers are telling us they might be together; but still it feels a bit reductionist to me!
ahhh thank you for running this blog! it makes it all the more fun. i definitely think we're gonna see this: Aasha-Brandon, Amber-Paige, Danny-Kylie, Jasmine-Nour, Jenna-Kari, Justin-Max, Kai-Remy
ReplyDeleteif they send justin-max to the truth booth next time then we're left with only 4 combinations which is amazing!!!
There are some guesses in here.. it's not just math. For instance, how did you remove Kai and Jasmine as a potential match? I get the Kai/Danny thing, but I'm going in a different direction: Brandon/Aasha, Basit/Jonathon, Max/Justin, Jasmine/Nour, Paige/Amber - these are the "beam" couples. Kari/Jenna, Kylie/Danny, Remy/Kai are non-beam couples.
ReplyDeleteMath eliminated Kai and Jasmine, not "guessing." There are no combinations of the couples left based on the truth booths and matchup ceremonies where Kai and Jasmine are a couple.
DeleteYes: all math, no guessing. I guess you question the elimination of Kai and Jasmine because they have never sat together, and therefore you believe we have no information about that couple. The trick is to remember that, if Kai and Jasmine are a couple, it means that any time Kai or Jasmine sat with anyone other than each other (which is every time) they were not a beam. If we take that, along with the fact that Basit-Jonathan are a match (proven elsewhere in the comments), it means that either Aasha-Paige or Justin-Max were a perfect match in ceremony #1, and exactly one of Aasha-Brandon, Danny-Remy, or Max-Paige were a perfect match in ceremony #2. If Aasha-Paige are a perfect match, Danny-Remy must be a perfect match (because neither Aasha-Brandon nor Max-Paige can be). If Justin-Max are a perfect match, Aasha-Brandon or Danny-Remy could be a perfect match. So far, the assumption that Kai and Jasmine are a perfect match has left us with three valid results for ceremonies 1 and 2. But now we can apply them to the other two ceremonies to see if we still have valid results.
DeleteAasha-Paige and Danny-Remy: Impossible because Justin-Jenna is left as the only possible beam in ceremony #3, which had two beams.
Justin-Max and Aasha-Brandon: Impossible because Amber-Paige is the only possible beam in #3.
Justin-Max and Danny-Remy: Impossible because Amber-Paige is the only possible beam in #3.
So assuming that Kai and Jasmine are a perfect match leaves no valid set of 2 perfect matches in ceremony #3. Or, in other words, every valid solution requires Kai, Jasmine, or both to have been a beam with someone other than each other at least once in ceremonies 1-4, so they can't be a perfect match.
Gotcha. Thanks!
DeleteCan someone explain how the math works out with the inferred no matches? I'm trying to figure out how that can be computed but cannot figure it out.
ReplyDeleteI was trying to understand it as well. From what I read here I think it basically creates all the possible cerimonies (now we have 55 as listed with jonathan and basit being a perfect match) and if a couple is not on any of them it means it is a inferred no match.
DeleteYou take the total number of combinations of couples within the 16 to start with, this comes out to 2,027,025 combinations for this season. Then, with each episode you get some more data. At this point we have 5 truth booths and 5 matchup ceremonies. So for each of the 2 million sets of possibilities, you compare that set of couples to each truth booth, and if it contains any confirmed "no matches", then you throw it out since it cannot be correct. You then compare the set to all five episodes, and make sure that it would have produced the corresponding amounts of beams. If it wouldn't have, then you throw it out. At this point, after throwing out all the invalid combinations, we have 55 left. In those 55, there are a number of couples that do not appear once, meaning they're a confirmed no match.
DeleteThanks Taddie!! It makes sense now hahaha
DeleteIf your question is "how does math help us determine who aren't matches even when the people haven't sat together?" see my or DavidK93's response above. The math (or someone with a lot of time) takes the knowns (5 confirmed no matches from the truth booth, and 8 confirmed no matches from the blackout) and the possibilities (each of the ceremonies and the resulting number of beams), and come up with every combination that would fit the data. The easiest one to prove is that Basit-Jonathan ARE a match. Once you do that, you can start start picking couples, plugging them in, and determine whether or not they are still a match. While I enjoy doing a few to prove it out to myself, there are still way too many possibilities for it to be worthwhile to make all the determinations yourself.
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ReplyDeleteI get the math in general, but can anyone explain the logic behind the math for the Basit/Jonathan Match. Baiscally the logic without the computer....
ReplyDeleteI worked through the logic as best as I was able in a reply to jordyn above.
DeleteI figured it out. If you start with week 1 having 2 matches and run the logic on possibilities you find that Max/Justin, Kai/Danny, Aasha/Paige, and Jasmine/Jenna are all mutually exclusive but they all are possible with Basit/Jonathan. This comfirms Basit/Jonathan.
ReplyDeleteIf the second W1 beam is determined, working through the logic we will be able to infer:
If it is Max/Justin then we will know Jasmine/Nour and Paige/Amber are matches
If it is Aasha/Paige then we will know Kari/Kai, Jenna/Justin, Jasmine/Nour, and Remy/Danny are matches
If it is Jasmine/Jenna then we will know Kari/Kai, Paige/Amber, Aasha/Max, and Remy/Danny are matches
If it is Kai/Danny we can’t confirm more matches, but will eliminate possibilities
I'm going with #11: Aasha/Brandon - budding bond, Amber/Paige - grounded and cute, Danny/Kylie - glowing and sincere, Jasmine/Nour - i could seem 'em vibing, Jenna/Kari - no idea, Justin/Max - it has to be true, Kai/Remy - horny AF
ReplyDeleteI was about to write, who has money on 11, glad to see someone agrees!
DeleteI just got done with my own stats and came here to check my predictions, lol.
DeleteThe only reason I'm not completely on board with Aasha/Brandon is that knowing that Jonathan and Basit are a match means that only one other couple from the second ceremony can be a match, and I have had this sense ever since I saw them sit together that Danny/Remy might be a match. They both seem to be pretty level-headed, intellectual types with a freaky side but Remy lets his freak flag fly and keeps his nerdy side under wraps and Danny leans into the nerdy stuff and doesn't show the freak much.
DeleteAlso #11, for practical, attractions, and personality reasons. Posted a comment in last week's thread that I thought the final would be two MF, plus three each of MM/FF, putting Basit in as M for the purposes of this. Without that kind of matchup, the show's premise wouldn't work.
DeleteAasha/Brandon - this always made sense to me since the beginning, they give off the same vibes to me
DeleteDanny/Kylie - this was the one I had the least, so glad you could see it, I have a hard time putting Danny with anyone to be honest
Jenna/Kari - Kari comments on how she is crazy in the premiere episode, Jenna comments on how she loves the drama, it makes sense for them to be together but in a positive way, not negative drama
Justin/Max - my heart will be crushed if it's not them!
Kai/Remy - they're the only two to my knowledge they are actively looking for a Poly/Open partner, although that's very little to go off of, so who knows!
Basit deserves better than Jonathan and that's the tea on that.
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ReplyDeleteHpw did we already know that Jonathan and Basit are a perfect match (Before the show showed us)?
ReplyDelete