Wednesday, July 17, 2019

Season 8, Episode 5 Probabilities - Live Blog

Before tonight's live blog, I want to say thanks to everyone who reads and supports this blog! I spoke with Kate from Vice for her piece on AYTO a few weeks ago and today Rose and Madi from Elle ran a piece on this blog. This wouldn't be possible without the blog's popularity, which comes from all of you!

9:03: Kylie and Kari want to avoid the Truth Booth to avoid a future blackout. While they're right that 80.8% of possibilities left include them, I think they've mixed up the causation a bit here - most of the combinations left include them because they've sat together at each of the Matchup Ceremonies. If you ask me, I think it's worth sending them in.

9:06: Justin wants to play the game. Not as happy with Max. Maybe this is another one-directional relationship.

9:08: Aasha is inserting herself between Max and Justin... Justin is interested. Max goes off.

9:15: Emoji interpretation challenge... Jenna understands Danny's, his best moment in Spring Awakening.

Nour's story about climbing a mountain and seeing mountain goats does not sit as well with Amber.

Sounds like Jonathan's heart stopped working in an ambulance?

Brandon had some kind of incident involving getting sick around money and shoes...

Remy gets that Basit should shine like a star!

Kari's biggest decision was to transition from a band to a party promoter - Kai gets it.

Paige figures out that the last time Max cried was over Justin. A piece of trash!

Aasha doesn't understand Justin's simple emoji. People leaving (through a door?).

Kari and Kai (4.8%), Danny and Jenna (6.7%) on the dates. So, with everyone thinking that Kari and Kylie are a match, that probably means Danny and Jenna are going to the Truth Booth.

9:20: Justin opens up - his mom kicked him out of the house at 14 in favor of a boyfriend. Brutal.

9:22: Jenna and Kai are back together! And escalating to the Boom Boom Room. Our first since the first episode? Jasmine overhears them going at it at 4am. Then Aasha and Kylie join in - the title's fivesome.

This must have been a pain to edit.

9:27: How did the fivesome get out? Jonathan seems to be the first to know and others are totally in the dark.

Justin just wants Danny to be happy! How nice. This is definitely the nicest house so far.

9:30: Kari doesn't like exes and is out on Kai. This isn't going well.

9:32: Max and Justin working through their stuff in a very two-guy way.

9:36: Kari says the title of the show isn't Are You My Second?

9:37: Terrence J knows to ask Jenna about Kai and what happened last night. Kylie admits: "Some people got their (bleep bleep)." What does the bleeps mean?

Truth Booth #4

It's Danny and Jenna (6.7%) headed to the Truth Booth. Danny thinks this could be a relationship she's afraid of.

No match means 4,120 combinations are left.

AashaAmberBasitBrandonDannyJasmineJennaJonathan
AashaX5.0%5.0%15.5%5.8%6.0%7.7%4.9%
Amber5.0%X3.6%6.1%3.7%4.6%6.1%3.9%
Basit5.0%3.6%X5.2%3.6%5.5%6.2%31.7%
Brandon15.5%6.1%5.2%X6.4%7.1%8.6%12.7%
Danny5.8%3.7%3.6%6.4%X6.4%X3.7%
Jasmine6.0%4.6%5.5%7.1%6.4%X8.3%5.4%
Jenna7.7%6.1%6.2%8.6%X8.3%X6.1%
Jonathan4.9%3.9%31.7%12.7%3.7%5.4%6.1%X
Justin5.6%5.2%5.2%6.6%6.6%14.8%21.4%5.3%
Kai6.0%4.4%4.4%7.0%35.4%6.3%X4.5%
Kari1.7%1.2%1.1%2.1%0.5%1.7%1.9%1.0%
Kylie1.7%1.2%1.1%2.1%0.5%1.7%1.9%1.0%
Max16.1%5.1%4.8%6.7%6.2%6.1%7.7%4.9%
Nour5.2%33.4%4.4%6.4%4.2%11.5%6.6%4.5%
Paige5.9%10.5%5.2%7.4%6.7%6.6%8.2%5.2%
Remy7.7%5.9%12.8%X10.4%8.1%9.2%5.0%
JustinKaiKariKylieMaxNourPaigeRemy
Aasha5.6%6.0%1.7%1.7%16.1%5.2%5.9%7.7%
Amber5.2%4.4%1.2%1.2%5.1%33.4%10.5%5.9%
Basit5.2%4.4%1.1%1.1%4.8%4.4%5.2%12.8%
Brandon6.6%7.0%2.1%2.1%6.7%6.4%7.4%X
Danny6.6%35.4%0.5%0.5%6.2%4.2%6.7%10.4%
Jasmine14.8%6.3%1.7%1.7%6.1%11.5%6.6%8.1%
Jenna21.4%X1.9%1.9%7.7%6.6%8.2%9.2%
Jonathan5.3%4.5%1.0%1.0%4.9%4.5%5.2%5.0%
JustinX6.6%1.6%1.6%5.7%X6.2%7.6%
Kai6.6%X0.7%0.7%6.3%4.8%6.5%6.4%
Kari1.6%0.7%X79.7%1.6%1.1%1.8%2.4%
Kylie1.6%0.7%79.7%X1.6%1.1%1.8%2.4%
Max5.7%6.3%1.6%1.6%X5.3%14.6%7.3%
NourX4.8%1.1%1.1%5.3%X5.1%6.4%
Paige6.2%6.5%1.8%1.8%14.6%5.1%X8.3%
Remy7.6%6.4%2.4%2.4%7.3%6.4%8.3%X

9:43: Danny is crushed. And reveals that his fiancee left him.

9:52: Kari and Kylie think they want to sit separately at the Matchup Ceremony. More lights and they think they aren't a match... blackout and they think they definitely are.

Matchup Ceremony #4

  • Danny - Basit
  • Kylie - Jonathan
  • Remy - Aasha
  • Kari - Kai
  • Jasmine - Brandon
  • Justin - Max (repeat from ceremony 1)
  • Amber - Nour (repeat from ceremonies 1 and 2)
  • Jenna - Paige
Blackout probability: 48.2% (1,985 of 4,120)
Instant win possible: No, repeated 1 couple from ceremony 2
Maximum number of lights: 4
Most likely number of lights: 0 (blackout)

1 beam means Terrence J wants some couples to get proof that they're a match, and for others to focus. It also means there are 1,577 possibilities remaining.
AashaAmberBasitBrandonDannyJasmineJennaJonathan
AashaX2.7%6.5%12.6%6.7%6.4%8.9%5.7%
Amber2.7%X2.6%3.2%2.7%2.7%4.3%2.3%
Basit6.5%2.6%X6.3%1.7%7.2%8.6%20.5%
Brandon12.6%3.2%6.3%X7.7%8.6%8.7%18.4%
Danny6.7%2.7%1.7%7.7%X9.0%X5.1%
Jasmine6.4%2.7%7.2%8.6%9.0%X2.7%7.0%
Jenna8.9%4.3%8.6%8.7%X2.7%X8.2%
Jonathan5.7%2.3%20.5%18.4%5.1%7.0%8.2%X
Justin5.1%2.7%4.9%5.3%7.4%12.4%24.0%4.7%
Kai6.7%3.5%5.6%7.5%30.4%7.9%X4.9%
Kari2.2%0.6%2.1%2.6%1.0%2.5%2.6%2.0%
Kylie2.2%0.6%2.2%2.7%0.8%2.7%2.7%0.1%
Max18.6%2.8%4.5%5.5%6.6%6.1%7.8%4.8%
Nour2.4%58.3%3.1%3.2%2.9%9.1%4.5%2.8%
Paige2.3%7.9%7.2%7.8%9.4%8.1%8.7%7.1%
Remy11.2%3.1%17.1%X8.8%7.6%8.3%6.5%
JustinKaiKariKylieMaxNourPaigeRemy
Aasha5.1%6.7%2.2%2.2%18.6%2.4%2.3%11.2%
Amber2.7%3.5%0.6%0.6%2.8%58.3%7.9%3.1%
Basit4.9%5.6%2.1%2.2%4.5%3.1%7.2%17.1%
Brandon5.3%7.5%2.6%2.7%5.5%3.2%7.8%X
Danny7.4%30.4%1.0%0.8%6.6%2.9%9.4%8.8%
Jasmine12.4%7.9%2.5%2.7%6.1%9.1%8.1%7.6%
Jenna24.0%X2.6%2.7%7.8%4.5%8.7%8.3%
Jonathan4.7%4.9%2.0%0.1%4.8%2.8%7.1%6.5%
JustinX6.5%1.8%1.9%11.2%X5.5%6.6%
Kai6.5%X0.3%1.3%6.0%3.5%8.4%7.4%
Kari1.8%0.3%X74.6%2.0%0.6%2.3%2.8%
Kylie1.9%1.3%74.6%X2.2%0.6%2.5%3.0%
Max11.2%6.0%2.0%2.2%X2.9%12.7%6.5%
NourX3.5%0.6%0.6%2.9%X2.6%3.6%
Paige5.5%8.4%2.3%2.5%12.7%2.6%X7.5%
Remy6.6%7.4%2.8%3.0%6.5%3.6%7.5%X

19 comments:

  1. I love this blog so much I just wanted to say thank you for making this :)

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    Replies
    1. Well deserved. I love looking at this blog at the end of episodes. I found it at the end of season 5. So clever Thanks again. :)

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    2. I agree with everyone please keep doing it

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    3. same!! also i'm not sure if it's just my browser, but would it be possible to make the combination chart fit horizontally without having to scroll down?

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  2. First place I head to right after the show.

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  3. I missed the last 5 minutes, did they only get 1 beam? 😩

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  4. This blog makes me incredibly happy!

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  5. Is there a way you can factor in a formula for same sex vs. opposite sex identification couples? I would think to honor this season's premise, the final matchups will be two opposite sex couples and the rest same sex. Would need an even amount of same sex couples or someone will be left out so it's either 2MM 2FF and 4MF or 3MM, 3FF and 2MF.

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    Replies
    1. What logic is this when Basit does not identify as male or female??

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  6. will you share the code that you use? would love to see it!

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    Replies
    1. And if not - would you let us know what program you use to write it? Just curious!

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  7. I would love for Basit to be my best friend they are so caring.They are always there for the heart to heart.

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  8. When there were previous perfect matches they would have a permanent beam so they should just go into the truth booth

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  9. They can still blackout with a confirmed perfect match. If the group gets no additional beams to the confirmed match beams that's a blackout

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