Season 8, Episode 7 Probabilities - Live Blog

Alert: MTV just announced at the end of this episode that the show is moving to Mondays at 11pm starting with the next episode - August 5. (Two hours later for those of you not in the Eastern time zone.)

9:02: Terrence J opens the show promising a Perfect Match will be revealed in a way that's never happened before. Weird!

9:04: Fallout from the blackout. Remy unloading on Jonathan.

9:05: Basit has been doing the math and they recognize the high probability of being a match with Jonathan.

9:07: Aasha and Brandon really pushing to be the next relationship. Kai and Nour (inferred no match) commiserating over their broken relationships.

9:09: Kai goes back to Jenna... Remy breaks them up... so Kai jumps over to Jasmine. He's acting out!

9:14: Jonathan going full reset and now hitting it off with Basit.

9:15: Red flags are the theme of the challenge... Brandon and Nour are identified as the two pickiest people in the house. Whichever of the two of them can match more red flags to people in the house gets to pick two people for a date.

9:18: Brandon wins and picks Aasha (20%) and Basit (no match).

They also send Nour with the two people with the most red flags... Kylie (16.4%) and Jenna (3.6%).

One of Brandon or Nour has to go into the Truth Booth.

9:20 Terrence J talking directly to the camera... weird!

9:24: The date is going out on ATVs.

9:26: Brandon convinces Basit to leave him alone with Aasha.

Truth Booth #6

Aasha and Brandon are headed to the Truth Booth. If the two of them are a perfect match, Jasmine and Nour are also a match.

Perfect match!

	Aasha	Amber	Basit	Brandon	Danny	Jasmine	Jenna	Jonathan
Aasha	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X
Amber	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Basit	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match
Brandon	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Danny	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Jasmine	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Jenna	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Jonathan	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X
Justin	X	18.2%	X	X	X	X	X	X
Kai	X	X	X	X	90.9%	X	X	X
Kari	X	18.2%	X	X	X	X	9.1%	X
Kylie	X	18.2%	X	X	9.1%	X	X	X
Max	X	18.2%	X	X	X	X	X	X
Nour	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X
Paige	X	9.1%	X	X	X	X	90.9%	X
Remy	X	18.2%	X	X	X	X	X	X
	Justin	Kai	Kari	Kylie	Max	Nour	Paige	Remy
Aasha	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Amber	18.2%	X	18.2%	18.2%	18.2%	X	9.1%	18.2%
Basit	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Brandon	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Danny	X	90.9%	X	9.1%	X	X	X	X
Jasmine	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X
Jenna	X	X	9.1%	X	X	X	90.9%	X
Jonathan	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Justin	X	X	27.3%	27.3%	9.1%	X	X	18.2%
Kai	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	9.1%
Kari	27.3%	X	X	X	27.3%	X	X	18.2%
Kylie	27.3%	X	X	X	27.3%	X	X	18.2%
Max	9.1%	X	27.3%	27.3%	X	X	X	18.2%
Nour	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Paige	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Remy	18.2%	9.1%	18.2%	18.2%	18.2%	X	X	X

11 possibilities left. Jax stans? One option left.

1. Amber-Justin, Danny-Kai, Jenna-Paige, Kari-Max, Kylie-Remy
2. Amber-Justin, Danny-Kai, Jenna-Paige, Kari-Remy, Kylie-Max
3. Amber-Kari, Danny-Kai, Jenna-Paige, Justin-Kylie, Max-Remy
4. Amber-Kari, Danny-Kai, Jenna-Paige, Justin-Remy, Kylie-Max
5. Amber-Kylie, Danny-Kai, Jenna-Paige, Justin-Kari, Max-Remy
6. Amber-Kylie, Danny-Kai, Jenna-Paige, Justin-Remy, Kari-Max
7. Amber-Max, Danny-Kai, Jenna-Paige, Justin-Kari, Kylie-Remy
8. Amber-Max, Danny-Kai, Jenna-Paige, Justin-Kylie, Kari-Remy
9. Amber-Paige, Danny-Kylie, Jenna-Kari, Justin-Max, Kai-Remy
10. Amber-Remy, Danny-Kai, Jenna-Paige, Justin-Kari, Kylie-Max
11. Amber-Remy, Danny-Kai, Jenna-Paige, Justin-Kylie, Kari-Max

9:40: Danny enjoying time with Kai... but doesn't think it's unique.

9:41: Amber and Jenna hitting it off.

9:42: Jonathan makes a big floral arrangement for Basit... and here's MTV's "first time ever" reveal... they are a perfect match! No new information for us here.

Matchup Ceremony #6

• Jenna - Amber (previously inferred no match)
• Basit - Jonathan (previously inferred perfect match)
• Jasmine - Kylie (previously inferred no match)
• Danny - Kai (repeat from ceremonies 1 and 3)
• Paige - Kari (previously inferred no match)
• Max - Justin (repeat from ceremonies 1 and 4)
• Nour - Remy (previously inferred no match)

This means we'll see 3 beams - Brandon and Aasha, Basit and Jonathan, and then either Danny and Kai or Max and Justin. No new information and 11 combinations remain.

Heads up: A commercial just announced the show is moving to Monday at 11pm starting with the next episode. (Two hours later for those of you not in the Eastern time zone.) Confirmed on the show's Twitter but not yet showing up on MTV's schedule or my TV's guide. Check your DVRs!

Note: The VMAs are 4 Mondays from now. Does that mean we'll only see 10 episodes this season? Or will AYTO have MTV's biggest show as lead-in?

Season 8, Episode 6 Probabilities - Live Blog

9:04: Amber thinks that the probability of being a perfect match is high just because they've sat together a few times and gotten one beam.

9:06: Jasmine and Kai are hitting it off! Physically, for sure.

9:07: The couples who have repeated a lot need to go into the Truth Booth to resolve some of the discrepancies. Identifying any of the beams from the past ceremonies is a big step.

9:08: Basit and Amber emerging as the most level-headed, direct, honest people in the house.

9:10: Max and Justin in the Boom Boom Room, and it looks like Kai and Jasmine will take the next step too in the shower.

9:15: A lot of the long-standing couples are getting together for the challenge, which involves popping the most balloons. Justin and Max (11.2%) take the clear lead with fast, repeatable technique. Remy and Basit (17.1%) pull ahead of Kylie and Kari (74.6%), who end up being the third possibility for the Truth Booth. A lot of strong couples going in!

9:18: Jasmine and Kai are magnetic right now. Paige walks in on them in the shower!

9:24: Aasha doesn't know who she's with. Thinking maybe Brandon?

9:26: The date is paddleboarding! Meanwhile, the house is split between Justin - Max and Kari - Kylie. Producers focusing heavily on Justin and Max...

Truth Booth #5

9:36: It's Kari and Kylie going to the Truth Booth.

No match without a commercial break! That leaves 400 possibilities and a lot of inferred no matches are on the board. Kai and Danny emerging as one of the biggest couples because they've been repeated twice.

	Aasha	Amber	Basit	Brandon	Danny	Jasmine	Jenna	Jonathan
Aasha	X	0.5%	4.8%	22.2%	0.2%	4.2%	7.0%	4.5%
Amber	0.5%	X	X	1.8%	X	0.5%	0.5%	X
Basit	4.8%	X	X	4.0%	X	5.2%	4.5%	27.3%
Brandon	22.2%	1.8%	4.0%	X	2.2%	2.0%	6.2%	25.8%
Danny	0.2%	X	X	2.2%	X	2.0%	X	X
Jasmine	4.2%	0.5%	5.2%	2.0%	2.0%	X	4.8%	6.0%
Jenna	7.0%	0.5%	4.5%	6.2%	X	4.8%	X	6.0%
Jonathan	4.5%	X	27.3%	25.8%	X	6.0%	6.0%	X
Justin	3.5%	1.2%	2.2%	2.8%	0.2%	29.8%	34.0%	3.0%
Kai	1.0%	X	1.0%	3.0%	79.0%	2.5%	X	X
Kari	8.5%	2.2%	8.2%	10.2%	4.0%	9.8%	10.2%	7.8%
Kylie	8.5%	2.5%	8.8%	10.5%	3.0%	10.5%	10.8%	0.2%
Max	23.5%	0.8%	4.0%	2.5%	0.2%	3.5%	5.5%	5.0%
Nour	0.5%	82.8%	X	1.8%	X	8.0%	0.5%	X
Paige	4.0%	5.8%	6.0%	5.0%	1.8%	4.5%	4.5%	7.5%
Remy	7.0%	1.5%	24.0%	X	7.2%	6.8%	5.5%	7.0%
	Justin	Kai	Kari	Kylie	Max	Nour	Paige	Remy
Aasha	3.5%	1.0%	8.5%	8.5%	23.5%	0.5%	4.0%	7.0%
Amber	1.2%	X	2.2%	2.5%	0.8%	82.8%	5.8%	1.5%
Basit	2.2%	1.0%	8.2%	8.8%	4.0%	X	6.0%	24.0%
Brandon	2.8%	3.0%	10.2%	10.5%	2.5%	1.8%	5.0%	X
Danny	0.2%	79.0%	4.0%	3.0%	0.2%	X	1.8%	7.2%
Jasmine	29.8%	2.5%	9.8%	10.5%	3.5%	8.0%	4.5%	6.8%
Jenna	34.0%	X	10.2%	10.8%	5.5%	0.5%	4.5%	5.5%
Jonathan	3.0%	X	7.8%	0.2%	5.0%	X	7.5%	7.0%
Justin	X	1.0%	7.2%	7.5%	2.2%	X	2.2%	3.0%
Kai	1.0%	X	1.2%	5.2%	1.0%	X	2.0%	3.0%
Kari	7.2%	1.2%	X	X	7.8%	2.5%	9.2%	11.0%
Kylie	7.5%	5.2%	X	X	8.5%	2.5%	9.8%	11.8%
Max	2.2%	1.0%	7.8%	8.5%	X	0.5%	30.8%	4.2%
Nour	X	X	2.5%	2.5%	0.5%	X	X	1.0%
Paige	2.2%	2.0%	9.2%	9.8%	30.8%	X	X	7.0%
Remy	3.0%	3.0%	11.0%	11.8%	4.2%	1.0%	7.0%	X

9:43: Dr. Frankie in for a pep talk.

Matchup Ceremony #5

9:47: Terrence J directly challenges Amber's past behavior of giving people multiple chances... Justin not happy with it. But probably made even worse when not picked by Jonathan!

• Kylie - Jenna
• Nour - Amber (repeat from ceremonies 1, 2, and 4)
• Jonathan - Justin
• Max - Brandon
• Basit - Remy (repeat from ceremony 3)
• Danny - Kari
• Paige - Jasmine
• Kai - Aasha

Blackout probability: 13.8% (55 of 400)
Instant win possible: No, repeated only 1 couple from ceremony 1
Maximum number of lights: 5
Most likely number of lights: 1

9:55: 5 beams would mean we would know all of the perfect matches.

10:00: BLACKOUT! The prize goes down to $750,000 and 55 combinations are left. We have our first inferred perfect match: Basit and Jonathan! They were one of the beams in each of the first two ceremonies.

	Aasha	Amber	Basit	Brandon	Danny	Jasmine	Jenna	Jonathan
Aasha	X	3.6%	X	20.0%	X	X	1.8%	X
Amber	3.6%	X	X	10.9%	X	3.6%	3.6%	X
Basit	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match
Brandon	20.0%	10.9%	X	X	X	14.5%	9.1%	X
Danny	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Jasmine	X	3.6%	X	14.5%	X	X	3.6%	X
Jenna	1.8%	3.6%	X	9.1%	X	3.6%	X	X
Jonathan	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X
Justin	X	5.5%	X	3.6%	X	29.1%	29.1%	X
Kai	X	X	X	1.8%	85.5%	X	X	X
Kari	5.5%	14.5%	X	12.7%	X	3.6%	12.7%	X
Kylie	5.5%	16.4%	X	16.4%	1.8%	3.6%	X	X
Max	18.2%	5.5%	X	X	X	X	3.6%	X
Nour	3.6%	X	X	10.9%	X	41.8%	3.6%	X
Paige	3.6%	25.5%	X	X	X	X	32.7%	X
Remy	38.2%	10.9%	X	X	12.7%	X	X	X
	Justin	Kai	Kari	Kylie	Max	Nour	Paige	Remy
Aasha	X	X	5.5%	5.5%	18.2%	3.6%	3.6%	38.2%
Amber	5.5%	X	14.5%	16.4%	5.5%	X	25.5%	10.9%
Basit	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Brandon	3.6%	1.8%	12.7%	16.4%	X	10.9%	X	X
Danny	X	85.5%	X	1.8%	X	X	X	12.7%
Jasmine	29.1%	X	3.6%	3.6%	X	41.8%	X	X
Jenna	29.1%	X	12.7%	X	3.6%	3.6%	32.7%	X
Jonathan	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Justin	X	X	9.1%	12.7%	7.3%	X	X	3.6%
Kai	X	X	7.3%	3.6%	X	X	X	1.8%
Kari	9.1%	7.3%	X	X	9.1%	14.5%	X	10.9%
Kylie	12.7%	3.6%	X	X	12.7%	16.4%	X	10.9%
Max	7.3%	X	9.1%	12.7%	X	1.8%	38.2%	3.6%
Nour	X	X	14.5%	16.4%	1.8%	X	X	7.3%
Paige	X	X	X	X	38.2%	X	X	X
Remy	3.6%	1.8%	10.9%	10.9%	3.6%	7.3%	X	X

Your new power couples: Danny & Kai and Jasmine & Nour. Max & Justin still a possibility. Jasmine & Kai not.

Your 55 possible combinations after the jump:

Season 8, Episode 5 Probabilities - Live Blog

Before tonight's live blog, I want to say thanks to everyone who reads and supports this blog! I spoke with Kate from Vice for her piece on AYTO a few weeks ago and today Rose and Madi from Elle ran a piece on this blog. This wouldn't be possible without the blog's popularity, which comes from all of you!

9:03: Kylie and Kari want to avoid the Truth Booth to avoid a future blackout. While they're right that 80.8% of possibilities left include them, I think they've mixed up the causation a bit here - most of the combinations left include them because they've sat together at each of the Matchup Ceremonies. If you ask me, I think it's worth sending them in.

9:06: Justin wants to play the game. Not as happy with Max. Maybe this is another one-directional relationship.

9:08: Aasha is inserting herself between Max and Justin... Justin is interested. Max goes off.

9:15: Emoji interpretation challenge... Jenna understands Danny's, his best moment in Spring Awakening.

Nour's story about climbing a mountain and seeing mountain goats does not sit as well with Amber.

Sounds like Jonathan's heart stopped working in an ambulance?

Brandon had some kind of incident involving getting sick around money and shoes...

Remy gets that Basit should shine like a star!

Kari's biggest decision was to transition from a band to a party promoter - Kai gets it.

Paige figures out that the last time Max cried was over Justin. A piece of trash!

Aasha doesn't understand Justin's simple emoji. People leaving (through a door?).

Kari and Kai (4.8%), Danny and Jenna (6.7%) on the dates. So, with everyone thinking that Kari and Kylie are a match, that probably means Danny and Jenna are going to the Truth Booth.

9:20: Justin opens up - his mom kicked him out of the house at 14 in favor of a boyfriend. Brutal.

9:22: Jenna and Kai are back together! And escalating to the Boom Boom Room. Our first since the first episode? Jasmine overhears them going at it at 4am. Then Aasha and Kylie join in - the title's fivesome.

This must have been a pain to edit.

9:27: How did the fivesome get out? Jonathan seems to be the first to know and others are totally in the dark.

Justin just wants Danny to be happy! How nice. This is definitely the nicest house so far.

9:30: Kari doesn't like exes and is out on Kai. This isn't going well.

9:32: Max and Justin working through their stuff in a very two-guy way.

9:36: Kari says the title of the show isn't Are You My Second?

9:37: Terrence J knows to ask Jenna about Kai and what happened last night. Kylie admits: "Some people got their (bleep bleep)." What does the bleeps mean?

Truth Booth #4

It's Danny and Jenna (6.7%) headed to the Truth Booth. Danny thinks this could be a relationship she's afraid of.

No match means 4,120 combinations are left.

	Aasha	Amber	Basit	Brandon	Danny	Jasmine	Jenna	Jonathan
Aasha	X	5.0%	5.0%	15.5%	5.8%	6.0%	7.7%	4.9%
Amber	5.0%	X	3.6%	6.1%	3.7%	4.6%	6.1%	3.9%
Basit	5.0%	3.6%	X	5.2%	3.6%	5.5%	6.2%	31.7%
Brandon	15.5%	6.1%	5.2%	X	6.4%	7.1%	8.6%	12.7%
Danny	5.8%	3.7%	3.6%	6.4%	X	6.4%	X	3.7%
Jasmine	6.0%	4.6%	5.5%	7.1%	6.4%	X	8.3%	5.4%
Jenna	7.7%	6.1%	6.2%	8.6%	X	8.3%	X	6.1%
Jonathan	4.9%	3.9%	31.7%	12.7%	3.7%	5.4%	6.1%	X
Justin	5.6%	5.2%	5.2%	6.6%	6.6%	14.8%	21.4%	5.3%
Kai	6.0%	4.4%	4.4%	7.0%	35.4%	6.3%	X	4.5%
Kari	1.7%	1.2%	1.1%	2.1%	0.5%	1.7%	1.9%	1.0%
Kylie	1.7%	1.2%	1.1%	2.1%	0.5%	1.7%	1.9%	1.0%
Max	16.1%	5.1%	4.8%	6.7%	6.2%	6.1%	7.7%	4.9%
Nour	5.2%	33.4%	4.4%	6.4%	4.2%	11.5%	6.6%	4.5%
Paige	5.9%	10.5%	5.2%	7.4%	6.7%	6.6%	8.2%	5.2%
Remy	7.7%	5.9%	12.8%	X	10.4%	8.1%	9.2%	5.0%
	Justin	Kai	Kari	Kylie	Max	Nour	Paige	Remy
Aasha	5.6%	6.0%	1.7%	1.7%	16.1%	5.2%	5.9%	7.7%
Amber	5.2%	4.4%	1.2%	1.2%	5.1%	33.4%	10.5%	5.9%
Basit	5.2%	4.4%	1.1%	1.1%	4.8%	4.4%	5.2%	12.8%
Brandon	6.6%	7.0%	2.1%	2.1%	6.7%	6.4%	7.4%	X
Danny	6.6%	35.4%	0.5%	0.5%	6.2%	4.2%	6.7%	10.4%
Jasmine	14.8%	6.3%	1.7%	1.7%	6.1%	11.5%	6.6%	8.1%
Jenna	21.4%	X	1.9%	1.9%	7.7%	6.6%	8.2%	9.2%
Jonathan	5.3%	4.5%	1.0%	1.0%	4.9%	4.5%	5.2%	5.0%
Justin	X	6.6%	1.6%	1.6%	5.7%	X	6.2%	7.6%
Kai	6.6%	X	0.7%	0.7%	6.3%	4.8%	6.5%	6.4%
Kari	1.6%	0.7%	X	79.7%	1.6%	1.1%	1.8%	2.4%
Kylie	1.6%	0.7%	79.7%	X	1.6%	1.1%	1.8%	2.4%
Max	5.7%	6.3%	1.6%	1.6%	X	5.3%	14.6%	7.3%
Nour	X	4.8%	1.1%	1.1%	5.3%	X	5.1%	6.4%
Paige	6.2%	6.5%	1.8%	1.8%	14.6%	5.1%	X	8.3%
Remy	7.6%	6.4%	2.4%	2.4%	7.3%	6.4%	8.3%	X

9:43: Danny is crushed. And reveals that his fiancee left him.

9:52: Kari and Kylie think they want to sit separately at the Matchup Ceremony. More lights and they think they aren't a match... blackout and they think they definitely are.

Matchup Ceremony #4

• Danny - Basit
• Kylie - Jonathan
• Remy - Aasha
• Kari - Kai
• Jasmine - Brandon
• Justin - Max (repeat from ceremony 1)
• Amber - Nour (repeat from ceremonies 1 and 2)
• Jenna - Paige

Blackout probability: 48.2% (1,985 of 4,120)
Instant win possible: No, repeated 1 couple from ceremony 2
Maximum number of lights: 4
Most likely number of lights: 0 (blackout)

1 beam means Terrence J wants some couples to get proof that they're a match, and for others to focus. It also means there are 1,577 possibilities remaining.

	Aasha	Amber	Basit	Brandon	Danny	Jasmine	Jenna	Jonathan
Aasha	X	2.7%	6.5%	12.6%	6.7%	6.4%	8.9%	5.7%
Amber	2.7%	X	2.6%	3.2%	2.7%	2.7%	4.3%	2.3%
Basit	6.5%	2.6%	X	6.3%	1.7%	7.2%	8.6%	20.5%
Brandon	12.6%	3.2%	6.3%	X	7.7%	8.6%	8.7%	18.4%
Danny	6.7%	2.7%	1.7%	7.7%	X	9.0%	X	5.1%
Jasmine	6.4%	2.7%	7.2%	8.6%	9.0%	X	2.7%	7.0%
Jenna	8.9%	4.3%	8.6%	8.7%	X	2.7%	X	8.2%
Jonathan	5.7%	2.3%	20.5%	18.4%	5.1%	7.0%	8.2%	X
Justin	5.1%	2.7%	4.9%	5.3%	7.4%	12.4%	24.0%	4.7%
Kai	6.7%	3.5%	5.6%	7.5%	30.4%	7.9%	X	4.9%
Kari	2.2%	0.6%	2.1%	2.6%	1.0%	2.5%	2.6%	2.0%
Kylie	2.2%	0.6%	2.2%	2.7%	0.8%	2.7%	2.7%	0.1%
Max	18.6%	2.8%	4.5%	5.5%	6.6%	6.1%	7.8%	4.8%
Nour	2.4%	58.3%	3.1%	3.2%	2.9%	9.1%	4.5%	2.8%
Paige	2.3%	7.9%	7.2%	7.8%	9.4%	8.1%	8.7%	7.1%
Remy	11.2%	3.1%	17.1%	X	8.8%	7.6%	8.3%	6.5%
	Justin	Kai	Kari	Kylie	Max	Nour	Paige	Remy
Aasha	5.1%	6.7%	2.2%	2.2%	18.6%	2.4%	2.3%	11.2%
Amber	2.7%	3.5%	0.6%	0.6%	2.8%	58.3%	7.9%	3.1%
Basit	4.9%	5.6%	2.1%	2.2%	4.5%	3.1%	7.2%	17.1%
Brandon	5.3%	7.5%	2.6%	2.7%	5.5%	3.2%	7.8%	X
Danny	7.4%	30.4%	1.0%	0.8%	6.6%	2.9%	9.4%	8.8%
Jasmine	12.4%	7.9%	2.5%	2.7%	6.1%	9.1%	8.1%	7.6%
Jenna	24.0%	X	2.6%	2.7%	7.8%	4.5%	8.7%	8.3%
Jonathan	4.7%	4.9%	2.0%	0.1%	4.8%	2.8%	7.1%	6.5%
Justin	X	6.5%	1.8%	1.9%	11.2%	X	5.5%	6.6%
Kai	6.5%	X	0.3%	1.3%	6.0%	3.5%	8.4%	7.4%
Kari	1.8%	0.3%	X	74.6%	2.0%	0.6%	2.3%	2.8%
Kylie	1.9%	1.3%	74.6%	X	2.2%	0.6%	2.5%	3.0%
Max	11.2%	6.0%	2.0%	2.2%	X	2.9%	12.7%	6.5%
Nour	X	3.5%	0.6%	0.6%	2.9%	X	2.6%	3.6%
Paige	5.5%	8.4%	2.3%	2.5%	12.7%	2.6%	X	7.5%
Remy	6.6%	7.4%	2.8%	3.0%	6.5%	3.6%	7.5%	X

Season 8, Episode 4 Probabilities - Live Blog

Welcome back! A very long episode tonight - we've got an extra half hour.

9:03: I just noticed the new slogan - "The one could be anyone." It's replacing the old one: "If your perfect match was standing right in front of you, would you even know it?"

9:04: Basit wants Jonathan, Jonathan wants Justin, Justin wants Max. A bunch of one directional interest, although Max really wanted Justin at the end of the last episode.

9:06: Amber and Nour bonding over not knowing how to share their identity with their dads.

9:07: Justin and Max just going for it.

9:08: Jonathan comes through and makes it awkward. He's mad and showing it... much differently than other guys have in previous seasons.

9:10: I'm not sure I understand Jenna's math. The same logic that makes it more likely that the couples repeated in the two matchup ceremonies are perfect matches make it more likely that she and Kai are a match.

9:11: Jenna is super petty and goes straight for Remy. He is very happy to be used!

9:15: Time for the date challenge. This is way more fun than last season's fate button.

They took a survey of who the most desirable people in the house are... Amber and Jenna. The other housemates get to run pickup lines by the two of them... best pickup line wins. Amber says she knows Nour's language. Kai picks the word "cake."

Amber picks Kari (liking that she used "lick" and "crazy") and Paige. Nour is not happy.

Jenna falls for the cake line, picking Kai and Remy.

The date is snorkeling at night with manta rays!

Out of the group on the date, Jenna and Kai (10.3%) are the most likely couple and Amber and Kari (2.4%) are the least likely couple.

9:25: Nour just starts threatening Paige. Extremely over the top. Just for winning a game!

9:26: Basit and Jasmine have decided to throw a queer prom that night after the group gets back from the snorkeling.

9:33: Jenna and Kai yelling at each other in the rain... this can only end one way... yep.

9:37: All the guys leaned right into the outfits. A couple of the guys got drag names... Brandon is Bianca, Jonathan is Beyond Good.

9:38: And it's time for Basit's Dionne Slay!

9:40: Amber is somewhat interested in Paige! But very aware of Nour's feelings. Very respectful.

9:41: And now Kylie and Nour are feeling each other... oh! Not as respectful as Amber and Paige.

9:42: OK Mark on Ex on the Beach seems to be just as entertained as us!

9:48: Jenna and Kai are on the floor. Guess who's going to be going to the Truth Booth...

9:56: Chicken in the house.

9:57: I like when people go up to the couple picker as a pair and discuss what they're thinking. Good TV!

9:59: Nour calls Paige an ostrich.

Truth Booth #3

As expected, it's Jenna and Kai.

10:07: No match means 24,133 combinations remain.

	Aasha	Amber	Basit	Brandon	Danny	Jasmine	Jenna	Jonathan
Aasha	X	3.7%	4.0%	17.1%	5.7%	6.6%	7.4%	4.0%
Amber	3.7%	X	2.2%	4.5%	3.4%	3.7%	4.5%	2.2%
Basit	4.0%	2.2%	X	4.8%	3.6%	4.0%	4.8%	46.8%
Brandon	17.1%	4.5%	4.8%	X	6.6%	7.3%	8.6%	4.8%
Danny	5.7%	3.4%	3.6%	6.6%	X	5.8%	6.7%	3.6%
Jasmine	6.6%	3.7%	4.0%	7.3%	5.8%	X	16.8%	4.0%
Jenna	7.4%	4.5%	4.8%	8.6%	6.7%	16.8%	X	4.8%
Jonathan	4.0%	2.2%	46.8%	4.8%	3.6%	4.0%	4.8%	X
Justin	7.4%	4.5%	4.5%	8.2%	6.8%	11.6%	7.7%	4.5%
Kai	7.1%	4.5%	4.8%	8.4%	16.8%	7.2%	X	4.8%
Kari	4.0%	2.2%	2.4%	4.8%	3.6%	4.0%	4.8%	2.4%
Kylie	4.0%	2.2%	2.4%	4.8%	3.6%	4.0%	4.8%	2.4%
Max	6.6%	4.0%	4.3%	7.8%	6.6%	6.6%	7.7%	4.3%
Nour	4.1%	49.8%	2.4%	5.0%	3.7%	4.1%	5.0%	2.4%
Paige	11.1%	4.1%	4.4%	7.3%	6.5%	7.1%	7.9%	4.4%
Remy	7.1%	4.5%	4.8%	X	16.8%	7.1%	8.5%	4.8%
	Justin	Kai	Kari	Kylie	Max	Nour	Paige	Remy
Aasha	7.4%	7.1%	4.0%	4.0%	6.6%	4.1%	11.1%	7.1%
Amber	4.5%	4.5%	2.2%	2.2%	4.0%	49.8%	4.1%	4.5%
Basit	4.5%	4.8%	2.4%	2.4%	4.3%	2.4%	4.4%	4.8%
Brandon	8.2%	8.4%	4.8%	4.8%	7.8%	5.0%	7.3%	X
Danny	6.8%	16.8%	3.6%	3.6%	6.6%	3.7%	6.5%	16.8%
Jasmine	11.6%	7.2%	4.0%	4.0%	6.6%	4.1%	7.1%	7.1%
Jenna	7.7%	X	4.8%	4.8%	7.7%	5.0%	7.9%	8.5%
Jonathan	4.5%	4.8%	2.4%	2.4%	4.3%	2.4%	4.4%	4.8%
Justin	X	8.0%	4.5%	4.5%	12.0%	X	7.5%	8.2%
Kai	8.0%	X	4.8%	4.8%	7.8%	5.0%	7.8%	8.1%
Kari	4.5%	4.8%	X	46.8%	4.3%	2.4%	4.4%	4.8%
Kylie	4.5%	4.8%	46.8%	X	4.3%	2.4%	4.4%	4.8%
Max	12.0%	7.8%	4.3%	4.3%	X	4.5%	11.1%	7.9%
Nour	X	5.0%	2.4%	2.4%	4.5%	X	4.5%	5.0%
Paige	7.5%	7.8%	4.4%	4.4%	11.1%	4.5%	X	7.6%
Remy	8.2%	8.1%	4.8%	4.8%	7.9%	5.0%	7.6%	X

10:18: Brandon is proud of Jonathan's pronoun usage!

Matchup Ceremony #3

• Jonathan - Brandon
• Aasha - Max
• Paige - Amber
• Kai - Danny (repeat from ceremony 1)
• Jenna - Justin
• Remy - Basit
• Kylie - Kari (repeat from ceremonies 1 and 2)
• Jasmine - Nour

Blackout probability: 33.8% (8,154 of 24,133)
Instant win possible: No, repeated 1 couple from ceremony 2
Maximum number of lights:: 6
Most likely number of lights: 1

2 beams means there are 4,383 possibilities left.

	Aasha	Amber	Basit	Brandon	Danny	Jasmine	Jenna	Jonathan
Aasha	X	4.8%	4.9%	15.1%	5.5%	6.2%	7.3%	4.8%
Amber	4.8%	X	3.6%	6.0%	3.5%	4.6%	5.7%	3.8%
Basit	4.9%	3.6%	X	5.2%	3.4%	5.5%	5.9%	32.2%
Brandon	15.1%	6.0%	5.2%	X	6.0%	7.3%	8.1%	13.1%
Danny	5.5%	3.5%	3.4%	6.0%	X	6.0%	6.0%	3.5%
Jasmine	6.2%	4.6%	5.5%	7.3%	6.0%	X	7.8%	5.5%
Jenna	7.3%	5.7%	5.9%	8.1%	6.0%	7.8%	X	5.8%
Jonathan	4.8%	3.8%	32.2%	13.1%	3.5%	5.5%	5.8%	X
Justin	6.2%	5.2%	5.2%	7.0%	6.2%	14.4%	20.1%	5.2%
Kai	6.2%	4.5%	4.5%	7.1%	33.2%	6.5%	X	4.6%
Kari	1.6%	1.1%	1.0%	2.0%	0.4%	1.6%	1.8%	0.9%
Kylie	1.6%	1.1%	1.0%	2.0%	0.4%	1.6%	1.8%	0.9%
Max	17.1%	5.0%	4.8%	6.9%	5.8%	6.3%	7.3%	4.8%
Nour	5.1%	34.1%	4.3%	6.5%	4.0%	11.7%	6.2%	4.4%
Paige	6.0%	10.9%	5.3%	7.6%	6.3%	6.8%	7.7%	5.3%
Remy	7.7%	5.9%	13.1%	X	9.7%	8.3%	8.6%	5.1%
	Justin	Kai	Kari	Kylie	Max	Nour	Paige	Remy
Aasha	6.2%	6.2%	1.6%	1.6%	17.1%	5.1%	6.0%	7.7%
Amber	5.2%	4.5%	1.1%	1.1%	5.0%	34.1%	10.9%	5.9%
Basit	5.2%	4.5%	1.0%	1.0%	4.8%	4.3%	5.3%	13.1%
Brandon	7.0%	7.1%	2.0%	2.0%	6.9%	6.5%	7.6%	X
Danny	6.2%	33.2%	0.4%	0.4%	5.8%	4.0%	6.3%	9.7%
Jasmine	14.4%	6.5%	1.6%	1.6%	6.3%	11.7%	6.8%	8.3%
Jenna	20.1%	X	1.8%	1.8%	7.3%	6.2%	7.7%	8.6%
Jonathan	5.2%	4.6%	0.9%	0.9%	4.8%	4.4%	5.3%	5.1%
Justin	X	6.9%	1.5%	1.5%	5.9%	X	6.7%	7.9%
Kai	6.9%	X	0.7%	0.7%	6.6%	5.0%	6.8%	6.7%
Kari	1.5%	0.7%	X	80.8%	1.5%	1.0%	1.7%	2.3%
Kylie	1.5%	0.7%	80.8%	X	1.5%	1.0%	1.7%	2.3%
Max	5.9%	6.6%	1.5%	1.5%	X	5.2%	13.7%	7.4%
Nour	X	5.0%	1.0%	1.0%	5.2%	X	5.1%	6.5%
Paige	6.7%	6.8%	1.7%	1.7%	13.7%	5.1%	X	8.4%
Remy	7.9%	6.7%	2.3%	2.3%	7.4%	6.5%	8.4%	X

10:33: Our end shot - Basit is out on Jonathan.

Season 8, Episode 3 Probabilities

Unfortunately, I'm not able to watch the show tonight. I've opened up the comments for tonight's episode, feel free to comment away and let me know what happened at the Truth Booth and Matchup Ceremony - I'll have the probabilities up in the morning. I'll return for the Live Blog next week.

Update (10:15 PM) - Here's the update based on what was shared in the comments:

Truth Booth #2

Brandon & Remy - no match leaves 120,800 combinations left.

	Aasha	Amber	Basit	Brandon	Danny	Jasmine	Jenna	Jonathan
Aasha	X	4.7%	4.8%	7.1%	4.8%	4.8%	4.8%	4.8%
Amber	4.7%	X	4.7%	6.9%	4.7%	4.7%	4.7%	4.7%
Basit	4.8%	4.7%	X	7.1%	4.8%	4.8%	4.8%	28.0%
Brandon	7.1%	6.9%	7.1%	X	7.1%	7.1%	7.1%	7.1%
Danny	4.8%	4.7%	4.8%	7.1%	X	4.8%	4.8%	4.8%
Jasmine	4.8%	4.7%	4.8%	7.1%	4.8%	X	28.0%	4.8%
Jenna	4.8%	4.7%	4.8%	7.1%	4.8%	28.0%	X	4.8%
Jonathan	4.8%	4.7%	28.0%	7.1%	4.8%	4.8%	4.8%	X
Justin	5.0%	5.0%	5.0%	7.5%	5.0%	5.0%	5.0%	5.0%
Kai	4.8%	4.7%	4.8%	7.1%	28.0%	4.8%	4.8%	4.8%
Kari	4.8%	4.7%	4.8%	7.1%	4.8%	4.8%	4.8%	4.8%
Kylie	4.8%	4.7%	4.8%	7.1%	4.8%	4.8%	4.8%	4.8%
Max	4.7%	4.5%	4.7%	6.9%	4.7%	4.7%	4.7%	4.7%
Nour	5.0%	30.0%	5.0%	7.5%	5.0%	5.0%	5.0%	5.0%
Paige	28.0%	4.7%	4.8%	7.1%	4.8%	4.8%	4.8%	4.8%
Remy	7.1%	6.9%	7.1%	X	7.1%	7.1%	7.1%	7.1%
	Justin	Kai	Kari	Kylie	Max	Nour	Paige	Remy
Aasha	5.0%	4.8%	4.8%	4.8%	4.7%	5.0%	28.0%	7.1%
Amber	5.0%	4.7%	4.7%	4.7%	4.5%	30.0%	4.7%	6.9%
Basit	5.0%	4.8%	4.8%	4.8%	4.7%	5.0%	4.8%	7.1%
Brandon	7.5%	7.1%	7.1%	7.1%	6.9%	7.5%	7.1%	X
Danny	5.0%	28.0%	4.8%	4.8%	4.7%	5.0%	4.8%	7.1%
Jasmine	5.0%	4.8%	4.8%	4.8%	4.7%	5.0%	4.8%	7.1%
Jenna	5.0%	4.8%	4.8%	4.8%	4.7%	5.0%	4.8%	7.1%
Jonathan	5.0%	4.8%	4.8%	4.8%	4.7%	5.0%	4.8%	7.1%
Justin	X	5.0%	5.0%	5.0%	30.0%	X	5.0%	7.5%
Kai	5.0%	X	4.8%	4.8%	4.7%	5.0%	4.8%	7.1%
Kari	5.0%	4.8%	X	28.0%	4.7%	5.0%	4.8%	7.1%
Kylie	5.0%	4.8%	28.0%	X	4.7%	5.0%	4.8%	7.1%
Max	30.0%	4.7%	4.7%	4.7%	X	5.0%	4.7%	6.9%
Nour	X	5.0%	5.0%	5.0%	5.0%	X	5.0%	7.5%
Paige	5.0%	4.8%	4.8%	4.8%	4.7%	5.0%	X	7.1%
Remy	7.5%	7.1%	7.1%	7.1%	6.9%	7.5%	7.1%	X

Matchup Ceremony #2

• Kai - Jenna
• Basit - Jonathan (repeat from ceremony 1)
• Justin - Jasmine
• Amber - Nour (repeat from ceremony 1)
• Kylie - Kari (repeat from ceremony 1)
• Brandon - Aasha
• Remy - Danny
• Max - Paige

Blackout probability: 24.3% (29,410 of 120,800)
Instant win possible: No, repeated 3 couples from ceremony 1
Maximum number of lights: 6
Most likely number of lights: 1

2 beams means 26,907 possibilities remain.

	Aasha	Amber	Basit	Brandon	Danny	Jasmine	Jenna	Jonathan
Aasha	X	3.8%	4.1%	15.3%	5.9%	6.6%	6.6%	4.1%
Amber	3.8%	X	2.4%	4.9%	3.8%	4.1%	4.1%	2.4%
Basit	4.1%	2.4%	X	5.2%	4.1%	4.4%	4.3%	45.2%
Brandon	15.3%	4.9%	5.2%	X	7.2%	7.8%	7.7%	5.2%
Danny	5.9%	3.8%	4.1%	7.2%	X	6.4%	6.0%	4.1%
Jasmine	6.6%	4.1%	4.4%	7.8%	6.4%	X	15.0%	4.4%
Jenna	6.6%	4.1%	4.3%	7.7%	6.0%	15.0%	X	4.3%
Jonathan	4.1%	2.4%	45.2%	5.2%	4.1%	4.4%	4.3%	X
Justin	6.6%	4.5%	4.5%	8.1%	6.8%	10.4%	6.9%	4.5%
Kai	6.4%	4.1%	4.3%	7.5%	15.0%	6.5%	10.3%	4.3%
Kari	4.1%	2.4%	2.6%	5.2%	4.1%	4.4%	4.3%	2.6%
Kylie	4.1%	2.4%	2.6%	5.2%	4.1%	4.4%	4.3%	2.6%
Max	6.0%	4.0%	4.3%	7.6%	6.5%	6.5%	6.9%	4.3%
Nour	4.2%	48.2%	2.6%	5.4%	4.2%	4.5%	4.4%	2.6%
Paige	15.0%	4.1%	4.3%	7.3%	6.4%	6.9%	7.1%	4.3%
Remy	7.3%	4.9%	5.2%	X	15.4%	7.7%	7.6%	5.2%
	Justin	Kai	Kari	Kylie	Max	Nour	Paige	Remy
Aasha	6.6%	6.4%	4.1%	4.1%	6.0%	4.2%	15.0%	7.3%
Amber	4.5%	4.1%	2.4%	2.4%	4.0%	48.2%	4.1%	4.9%
Basit	4.5%	4.3%	2.6%	2.6%	4.3%	2.6%	4.3%	5.2%
Brandon	8.1%	7.5%	5.2%	5.2%	7.6%	5.4%	7.3%	X
Danny	6.8%	15.0%	4.1%	4.1%	6.5%	4.2%	6.4%	15.4%
Jasmine	10.4%	6.5%	4.4%	4.4%	6.5%	4.5%	6.9%	7.7%
Jenna	6.9%	10.3%	4.3%	4.3%	6.9%	4.4%	7.1%	7.6%
Jonathan	4.5%	4.3%	2.6%	2.6%	4.3%	2.6%	4.3%	5.2%
Justin	X	7.2%	4.5%	4.5%	16.3%	X	6.8%	8.3%
Kai	7.2%	X	4.3%	4.3%	7.0%	4.4%	7.0%	7.3%
Kari	4.5%	4.3%	X	45.2%	4.3%	2.6%	4.3%	5.2%
Kylie	4.5%	4.3%	45.2%	X	4.3%	2.6%	4.3%	5.2%
Max	16.3%	7.0%	4.3%	4.3%	X	4.4%	10.0%	7.7%
Nour	X	4.4%	2.6%	2.6%	4.4%	X	4.4%	5.4%
Paige	6.8%	7.0%	4.3%	4.3%	10.0%	4.4%	X	7.6%
Remy	8.3%	7.3%	5.2%	5.2%	7.7%	5.4%	7.6%	X