Season 9, Episode 7 Probabilities

Truth Booth #6

Brooke and Ollie are the top couple by the numbers, and Julia Ruth and Brendan agree, picking them for the Truth Booth. It's a perfect match!

	Aqel	Brendan	Clay	Eduardo	Hamudi	Leo	Mikey	Nathan	Ollie	Samuel	Will
Anissa	37.8%	X	12.5%	6.1%	X	5.0%	7.2%	17.8%	X	7.3%	6.2%
Brooke	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X
CC	9.6%	X	X	12.4%	14.6%	10.2%	3.3%	26.1%	X	12.1%	11.7%
Courtney	X	X	12.3%	8.4%	9.0%	7.7%	10.1%	16.4%	X	7.3%	28.7%
Danielle	7.1%	X	15.7%	9.4%	27.6%	X	X	20.2%	X	8.0%	11.9%
Dew	11.2%	X	X	14.1%	17.3%	11.9%	13.6%	X	X	17.6%	14.2%
Jordanne	6.1%	X	14.3%	22.9%	9.8%	7.8%	10.8%	19.5%	X	8.9%	X
Julia Ruth	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Mijntje	10.2%	X	19.9%	11.7%	6.5%	9.4%	20.3%	X	X	10.9%	11.1%
Roz	8.2%	X	X	X	15.2%	12.4%	20.9%	X	X	27.1%	16.2%
Taylor	9.6%	X	25.3%	14.9%	X	35.6%	13.7%	X	X	0.8%	X

That narrows it to 1,485 possibilities. Two more inferred no matches: Nathan - Dew (from ceremonies 4 and 5) and Clay - Roz (from ceremony 5).

Matchup Ceremony #6

• Taylor - Clay
• Roz - Hamudi
• Dew - Eduardo
• Mijntje - Aqel
• Courtney - Nathan
• Anissa - Samuel
• CC - Mikey (repeat from ceremonies 4 and 5)
• Jordanne - Leo
• Danielle - Will
  

Blackout probability: 31.2% (463 of 1,485)
Instant win possible: No, did not repeat enough couples from ceremonies 2 and 3
Maximum number of lights: 8
Most likely number of lights: 3

It's 3 beams yet again, which leaves 556 combinations. Not much new info here given the large number of new couples.

	Aqel	Brendan	Clay	Eduardo	Hamudi	Leo	Mikey	Nathan	Ollie	Samuel	Will
Anissa	36.7%	X	12.2%	5.6%	X	5.0%	7.4%	20.1%	X	5.9%	7.0%
Brooke	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X
CC	10.8%	X	X	12.9%	13.8%	10.1%	3.6%	25.0%	X	11.5%	12.2%
Courtney	X	X	13.1%	9.5%	8.6%	8.3%	10.4%	14.7%	X	7.0%	28.2%
Danielle	8.3%	X	15.8%	9.0%	28.8%	X	X	20.3%	X	8.6%	9.2%
Dew	11.3%	X	X	12.1%	16.7%	11.7%	13.8%	X	X	19.4%	14.9%
Jordanne	6.7%	X	14.4%	23.7%	9.2%	5.6%	11.3%	19.8%	X	9.4%	X
Julia Ruth	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Mijntje	8.5%	X	20.1%	12.4%	6.7%	9.7%	19.2%	X	X	11.0%	12.4%
Roz	9.4%	X	X	X	16.2%	12.4%	20.0%	X	X	26.1%	16.0%
Taylor	8.5%	X	24.3%	14.7%	X	37.2%	14.2%	X	X	1.1%	X

Season 9, Episode 6 Probabilities

Truth Booth #5

One of the top three couples goes into the Truth Booth: Clay and CC. No match.

	Aqel	Brendan	Clay	Eduardo	Hamudi	Leo	Mikey	Nathan	Ollie	Samuel	Will
Anissa	54.3%	X	9.4%	5.1%	X	4.6%	5.7%	8.6%	X	5.7%	6.6%
Brooke	1.4%	X	0.1%	5.8%	5.5%	X	3.9%	5.3%	64.1%	4.6%	9.3%
CC	7.8%	X	X	13.3%	15.1%	9.5%	3.1%	15.9%	7.3%	11.7%	16.3%
Courtney	X	X	13.0%	9.6%	10.1%	17.2%	9.3%	10.3%	4.9%	7.6%	18.0%
Danielle	5.3%	X	12.2%	19.8%	29.3%	X	X	10.1%	2.6%	8.1%	12.6%
Dew	4.9%	X	X	8.3%	9.8%	5.7%	7.4%	34.6%	X	17.9%	11.3%
Jordanne	6.1%	X	16.4%	13.7%	12.9%	8.8%	11.7%	13.0%	7.0%	10.3%	X
Julia Ruth	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Mijntje	7.1%	X	15.7%	10.5%	6.0%	7.8%	25.6%	X	4.8%	10.2%	12.5%
Roz	5.4%	X	14.0%	X	11.3%	7.6%	20.6%	2.2%	4.2%	21.4%	13.3%
Taylor	7.9%	X	19.1%	13.8%	X	38.8%	12.6%	X	5.2%	2.5%	X

Just 3,880 possibilities left. We have our first inferred no matches, both from ceremony 4: Dew - Ollie and Danielle - Leo.

Matchup Ceremony #5

• Mikey - CC (repeat from ceremony 4)
• Hamudi - Mijntje (repeat from ceremony 2 and 4)
• Aqel - Anissa (repeat from ceremonies 2, 3, and 4)
• Ollie - Brooke (repeat from ceremonies 2 and 3)
• Leo - Danielle (repeat from ceremony 4, confirmed no match)
• Will - Courtney (repeat from ceremonies 3 and 4)
• Eduardo - Jordanne (repeat from ceremonies 3 and 4)
• Nathan - Dew (repeat from ceremony 3)
• Samuel - Taylor (repeat from ceremony 4)
• Clay - Roz

Blackout probability: 0% due to repeats from previous ceremonies. See comments for explanation
Instant win possible: No, repeated more than 2 couples from ceremony 4
Maximum number of lights: 5
Most likely number of lights: 3

It's 3 beams, which leaves 2,202 combinations. The other two couples from ceremony 4 are also inferred no matches: Nathan and Roz, Clay and Brooke.

	Aqel	Brendan	Clay	Eduardo	Hamudi	Leo	Mikey	Nathan	Ollie	Samuel	Will
Anissa	54.9%	X	9.8%	4.1%	X	3.4%	5.1%	12.4%	X	5.5%	4.9%
Brooke	1.1%	X	X	5.2%	6.1%	X	4.0%	1.2%	67.4%	5.5%	9.4%
CC	7.4%	X	X	13.0%	15.0%	9.4%	2.2%	18.6%	6.3%	12.9%	15.3%
Courtney	X	X	12.9%	8.8%	9.6%	14.2%	9.0%	12.1%	4.8%	8.2%	20.5%
Danielle	4.8%	X	14.0%	17.5%	27.5%	X	X	13.9%	3.0%	7.3%	11.9%
Dew	7.6%	X	X	9.7%	12.1%	8.0%	9.2%	27.3%	X	15.3%	10.8%
Jordanne	4.5%	X	16.1%	16.8%	11.9%	8.4%	10.9%	14.5%	6.3%	10.6%	X
Julia Ruth	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Mijntje	7.3%	X	18.8%	11.3%	5.1%	8.1%	22.3%	X	4.3%	10.3%	12.5%
Roz	5.5%	X	5.2%	X	12.7%	9.2%	25.6%	X	3.0%	24.0%	14.9%
Taylor	6.9%	X	23.1%	13.5%	X	39.3%	11.7%	X	5.0%	0.5%	X

Season 9, Episode 5 Probabilities

Truth Booth #4

Julia Ruth goes in to the Truth Booth with Brendan after some tension with Nathan, and it's the first perfect match of the season!

	Aqel	Brendan	Clay	Eduardo	Hamudi	Leo	Mikey	Nathan	Ollie	Samuel	Will
Anissa	47.3%	X	5.3%	7.4%	X	6.4%	7.7%	9.6%	X	7.1%	9.2%
Brooke	4.4%	X	5.5%	7.2%	8.3%	X	7.5%	9.1%	42.4%	6.8%	9.0%
CC	4.5%	X	38.7%	7.0%	8.0%	6.0%	7.2%	8.7%	4.7%	6.6%	8.6%
Courtney	X	X	7.0%	8.8%	10.2%	13.1%	9.1%	10.4%	6.4%	8.1%	27.0%
Danielle	6.7%	X	7.8%	14.2%	23.5%	8.8%	X	11.4%	7.1%	9.0%	11.5%
Dew	6.2%	X	X	8.6%	10.4%	7.7%	9.2%	27.2%	6.7%	13.3%	10.7%
Jordanne	7.5%	X	8.6%	23.5%	11.9%	8.8%	10.6%	11.8%	7.9%	9.3%	X
Julia Ruth	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Mijntje	7.2%	X	8.3%	10.1%	16.0%	9.0%	20.3%	X	7.6%	9.5%	12.0%
Roz	6.9%	X	7.9%	X	11.7%	8.8%	15.0%	11.7%	7.3%	18.6%	12.0%
Taylor	9.4%	X	10.8%	13.2%	X	31.4%	13.4%	X	9.8%	11.9%	X

That narrows it down to 20,228 possibilities.

Matchup Ceremony #4

• Courtney - Will (repeat from ceremony 3)
• Jordanne - Eduardo (repeat from ceremony 3)
• Mijntje - Hamudi (repeat from ceremony 2)
• Anissa - Aqel (repeat from ceremonies 2 and 3)
• CC - Mikey
• Dew - Ollie
• Danielle - Leo
• Brooke - Clay
• Taylor - Samuel
• Roz - Nathan

Blackout probability: 16.5% (3,340 of 20,228)
Instant win possible: Yes
Most likely number of lights: 2

It's 2 beams, which leaves only 6,812 combinations left.

	Aqel	Brendan	Clay	Eduardo	Hamudi	Leo	Mikey	Nathan	Ollie	Samuel	Will
Anissa	43.8%	X	5.4%	7.7%	X	6.9%	7.9%	11.4%	X	7.8%	9.1%
Brooke	4.4%	X	0.1%	7.7%	8.6%	X	6.6%	9.1%	46.5%	6.8%	10.2%
CC	4.4%	X	43.0%	7.6%	8.6%	5.4%	1.7%	9.1%	4.2%	6.7%	9.3%
Courtney	X	X	7.4%	10.8%	11.2%	13.6%	10.3%	11.6%	6.8%	8.6%	19.6%
Danielle	7.0%	X	6.9%	15.2%	27.0%	1.8%	X	12.1%	6.6%	9.5%	13.6%
Dew	6.4%	X	X	9.4%	11.4%	7.7%	8.5%	28.4%	1.8%	14.8%	11.6%
Jordanne	7.9%	X	9.4%	15.0%	13.2%	10.1%	11.9%	13.5%	8.6%	10.5%	X
Julia Ruth	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Mijntje	8.8%	X	8.9%	11.6%	6.4%	9.8%	22.3%	X	8.1%	11.1%	13.0%
Roz	7.0%	X	8.0%	X	13.5%	9.7%	16.6%	4.8%	7.4%	19.3%	13.6%
Taylor	10.3%	X	10.9%	15.0%	X	34.9%	14.1%	X	9.9%	4.9%	X

Season 9, Episode 4 Probabilities

Truth Booth #3

It's Will and Taylor in the Truth Booth. No match!

	Aqel	Brendan	Clay	Eduardo	Hamudi	Leo	Mikey	Nathan	Ollie	Samuel	Will
Anissa	21.5%	9.3%	9.3%	9.3%	X	9.3%	9.3%	10.6%	X	9.3%	12.2%
Brooke	8.3%	8.4%	8.4%	8.4%	9.7%	X	8.4%	9.6%	19.3%	8.4%	11.0%
CC	8.3%	X	19.1%	8.5%	9.7%	8.4%	8.5%	9.6%	8.5%	8.4%	11.0%
Courtney	X	8.4%	8.4%	8.4%	9.7%	19.1%	8.4%	9.6%	8.5%	8.4%	11.0%
Danielle	8.3%	8.5%	8.5%	19.1%	9.7%	8.5%	X	9.6%	8.5%	8.4%	11.0%
Dew	8.3%	8.5%	X	8.5%	9.7%	8.4%	8.5%	9.6%	8.5%	19.1%	11.0%
Jordanne	8.5%	19.4%	8.7%	8.7%	10.0%	8.7%	8.7%	9.9%	8.8%	8.7%	X
Julia Ruth	8.1%	8.3%	8.3%	8.3%	9.5%	8.3%	8.3%	21.9%	8.3%	X	10.9%
Mijntje	8.2%	8.3%	8.3%	8.3%	22.4%	8.3%	8.3%	X	8.4%	8.3%	10.9%
Roz	8.3%	8.5%	8.5%	X	9.7%	8.5%	19.1%	9.6%	8.5%	8.4%	11.0%
Taylor	12.3%	12.5%	12.5%	12.5%	X	12.5%	12.5%	X	12.6%	12.5%	X

1,959,300 possibilities remain.

Matchup Ceremony #3

• Samuel - Roz
• Aqel - Anissa (repeat from ceremony 2)
• Ollie - Brooke (repeat from ceremony 2)
• Will - Courtney
• Leo - Taylor
• Clay - CC (repeat from ceremony 2)
• Mikey - Mijntje
• Eduardo - Jordanne
• Hamudi - Danielle
• Brendan - Julia Ruth
• Nathan - Dew

Blackout probability: 24.6% (481,536 of 1,959,300)
Instant win possible: No, repeated more than 2 couples from ceremony 2

Maximum number of lights: 9
Most likely number of lights: 1

A surprising 4 beams means only 68,042 combinations left.

	Aqel	Brendan	Clay	Eduardo	Hamudi	Leo	Mikey	Nathan	Ollie	Samuel	Will
Anissa	49.0%	6.5%	4.4%	6.6%	X	5.6%	6.6%	7.4%	X	6.7%	7.3%
Brooke	3.9%	6.3%	4.5%	6.4%	6.9%	X	6.4%	7.2%	44.8%	6.4%	7.2%
CC	4.1%	X	44.9%	6.5%	7.0%	5.6%	6.5%	7.1%	4.3%	6.6%	7.4%
Courtney	X	7.3%	5.8%	7.5%	8.1%	8.1%	7.4%	8.4%	5.7%	7.4%	34.3%
Danielle	5.7%	7.7%	6.4%	8.3%	33.5%	6.9%	X	8.8%	6.2%	7.9%	8.6%
Dew	5.6%	7.6%	X	7.6%	8.3%	6.7%	7.7%	33.6%	5.9%	8.5%	8.4%
Jordanne	6.0%	8.9%	6.6%	30.8%	8.9%	7.1%	8.2%	9.0%	6.4%	8.1%	X
Julia Ruth	6.0%	29.7%	6.4%	8.5%	9.0%	7.3%	8.3%	9.4%	6.4%	X	9.0%
Mijntje	6.1%	8.1%	6.6%	8.3%	9.4%	7.3%	30.5%	X	6.4%	8.4%	8.9%
Roz	6.0%	8.1%	6.5%	X	8.8%	7.1%	8.7%	9.2%	6.4%	30.4%	8.9%
Taylor	7.4%	9.5%	8.0%	9.7%	X	38.6%	9.7%	X	7.6%	9.6%	X