Wednesday, September 26, 2018

Season 7, Episode 9 Probabilities - Live Blog

We resume with a fight in progress!

10:04: Bria is the one calming Kwasi down!

10:10: Tomas and Cali are happy together, but Lewis and Asia are not.

10:17: Fate Button twist... the guys are picked by the Fate Button but the guys will get to pick the girls. Kayla hits the Fate Button and it's Brett and Moe.

10:18: Moe is stumped as to who he wants to take on the date. The house heckles him too! Moe picks Kayla. Cam interjects saying we should hear Kayla's opinion... and she says, I'm fine with it! Weird that Asia didn't even seem to cross his mind...

10:23: Brett is also super indecisive. But eventually negotiates with Cali.

10:25: It's a boat date! With dolphins!

10:34: Moe struck out big time. Lewis calls him a body!

Truth Booth #6

It's Brett and Cali... and she's getting emotional at the possibility... but they're not a match. There are 1,524 possibilities left.

AndrewBrettCamDanielKwasiLewisMoeShamoyTevinTomasZak
AsiaX11.7%4.7%8.2%15.6%4.3%26.7%X4.9%12.7%11.1%
Bria14.6%15.2%6.8%21.5%7.4%15.3%8.8%X5.7%4.8%X
Cali12.8%X5.5%9.6%10.4%11.7%10.0%X5.1%25.0%9.8%
Jasmine11.9%12.7%5.6%8.9%18.8%6.4%12.9%X2.7%9.4%10.8%
Kayla7.5%4.7%52.6%6.9%5.4%5.9%5.2%X0.9%4.3%6.6%
Kenya7.3%X1.0%6.4%5.4%3.5%5.3%X61.1%4.1%5.8%
Lauren15.8%11.0%6.4%7.5%7.9%19.0%7.5%X5.2%10.4%9.3%
MariaXXXXXXXMatchXXX
Morgan3.1%9.8%5.1%8.3%9.5%10.3%8.8%X4.3%10.3%30.4%
Nutsa5.8%23.7%6.1%17.1%7.5%9.0%6.6%X5.2%8.9%10.0%
Samantha21.3%11.2%6.0%5.5%12.1%14.6%8.1%X4.9%10.2%6.2%


Matchup Ceremony #6

10:43: Maria and Shamoy looking tan.

10:44: Cam lists off all the attributes he likes about Kayla... and... it could describe pretty much any of the other women in the house. Kwasi is OUT on Kayla.

10:47: The whole house doesn't like that Lewis is ignoring Asia despite sleeping next to each other every night.
  • Lauren - Andrew (repeat from ceremonies 1 and 3)
  • Nutsa - Brett (repeat from ceremony 5)
  • Kayla - Cam (repeat from ceremonies 1, 2, 3, and 5)
  • Bria - Lewis
  • Asia - Kwasi (repeat from ceremony 1)
  • Cali - Tomas (repeat from ceremonies 2, 4, and 5)
  • Morgan - Zak (repeat from ceremonies 3, 4, and 5)
  • Kenya - Tevin (repeat from ceremonies 1, 2, 3, and 5)
  • Samantha - Daniel (repeat from ceremony 3)
  • Jasmine - Moe (repeat from ceremony 1)
Blackout probabilities:  0%
Instant win possible: No (more than 3 couples repeated from ceremony 1)
Maximum number of lights:  7
Most likely number of lights:  4

Looks like there were enough repeats to avoid a blackout. 4 beams brings it down to 574 combinations remaining. We get our first inferred no match - Kayla and Brett. OK.

AndrewBrettCamDanielKwasiLewisMoeShamoyTevinTomasZak
AsiaX9.6%4.7%6.1%25.4%6.3%26.1%X5.4%9.8%6.6%
Bria8.9%13.1%7.5%22.8%5.7%15.9%14.1%X6.8%5.2%X
Cali13.4%X5.9%11.7%11.7%8.0%8.2%X5.7%29.8%5.6%
Jasmine9.1%12.9%5.7%12.0%2.8%12.5%21.6%X1.9%10.5%11.0%
Kayla9.4%X49.7%10.3%6.4%6.6%4.5%X0.9%5.1%7.1%
Kenya8.9%X1.0%9.2%5.9%1.9%5.1%X57.3%4.9%5.7%
Lauren23.7%11.7%7.1%5.1%9.6%15.2%3.1%X6.4%10.8%7.3%
MariaXXXXXXXMatchXXX
Morgan1.4%6.1%4.5%10.6%9.8%12.2%4.4%X3.8%3.5%43.7%
Nutsa2.8%30.1%6.6%9.4%8.7%12.0%8.5%X5.4%10.1%6.3%
Samantha22.5%16.6%7.1%2.8%13.9%9.4%4.4%X6.3%10.5%6.6%

11:00: Lewis drops the bombshell - he doesn't find Asia attractive! She does not take it well.


Wednesday, September 19, 2018

Season 7, Episodes 7 & 8 Probabilities - Live Blog

Another double episode tonight.

10:09: Lauren getting her first bit of substantial screen time, with Andrew, who immediately compares her... to his mom.

10:19: Some of the new couples are Cam and Cali, Nutsa and Brett. The producers seem to have gotten used to using Lewis for talking heads, but always about others and never himself.

10:20: Kayla is very sad now.

10:30: Samantha does the Fate Button, which brings up Zak and Daniel.

10:34: Asia and Bria get picked by the Fate Button... pretty much everyone wants to send Bria and Zak to the Truth Booth, right?

10:38: Kwasi starts working on Kayla...

10:42: Daniel and Samantha sneak off to the Boom Boom Room.

10:47: Even Daniel knows that he and Asia are the side show on this date.

10:51: Zak and Bria try to reconnect... in case they are a match... and Bria continues to shit-talk Morgan.

Truth Booth #5

11:01: Zak and Bria, of course.

11:07: No match. Zak is pretending to be caught off guard. Bria is crushed. 11,562 possibilities remaining.

AndrewBrettCamDanielKwasiLewisMoeShamoyTevinTomasZak
AsiaX14.3%9.4%9.7%12.7%12.1%11.4%X7.1%11.2%11.9%
Bria11.5%10.2%7.5%10.2%12.7%10.9%15.9%X6.9%14.1%X
Cali9.3%22.5%6.3%8.7%9.2%8.5%8.7%X5.9%10.3%10.6%
Jasmine10.3%9.4%6.8%9.3%10.3%14.2%11.5%X7.1%9.9%11.2%
Kayla6.9%7.3%40.2%6.6%7.0%6.7%6.8%X3.7%7.0%7.8%
Kenya7.0%X3.9%6.4%7.2%8.2%7.0%X45.1%7.3%7.9%
Lauren23.6%8.3%5.9%9.4%11.3%8.7%8.3%X5.5%9.1%10.0%
MariaXXXXXXXMatchXXX
Morgan11.5%9.5%6.9%9.4%10.3%9.9%10.2%X6.6%11.9%13.8%
Nutsa10.3%9.1%6.4%21.0%9.1%9.2%9.0%X5.9%9.5%10.5%
Samantha9.7%9.4%6.6%9.2%10.2%11.5%11.3%X6.2%9.7%16.2%


11:09: A lot of the guys are laughing at Bria but they either gotta get with Bria or not get the $1M prize.

11:11: Bria starts coming after Kwasi. Cali commiserating with Morgan about Bria's "love" ... but isn't it more obsession? Zak in disbelief that he was voted into the Truth Booth... really dude?

11:14: The house is steaming... Morgan getting ready to get drunk. Asia and Kenya teaming up against Nutsa.

11:21: Moe checks in on Asia! Are they a match???

11:30: Blah blah blah more Bria and Zak drama resulting in Morgan and Zak in the boom boom room.

11:32: Cali and Tomas, who's gotten very little screen time this season.

Matchup Ceremony #5

11:41: Jasmine scolds Asia for being mad at Nutsa, when Nutsa is trying to find new matches and Asia is just trying the same old thing.

11:47: Cam gets to pick his girl before Kwasi does, so Kayla goes with him. He seems caught off guard by
  • Tevin - Kenya (repeat from ceremonies 1, 2, and 3)
  • Tomas - Cali (repeat from ceremonies 2 and 4)
  • Lewis - Lauren
  • Moe - Asia
  • Brett - Nutsa
  • Zak - Morgan (repeat from ceremonies 3 and 4)
  • Cam - Kayla (repeat from ceremonies 1, 2, and 3)
  • Kwasi - Jasmine (repeat from ceremony 3)
  • Andrew - Samantha
  • Daniel - Bria
Blackout probabilities:  8.5% (985 of 11,562)
Instant win possible: No (more than 3 couples repeated from ceremony 2)
Maximum number of lights:  7
Most likely number of lights:  2

11:51: 4 beams! That means 1,696 combinations are left.
AndrewBrettCamDanielKwasiLewisMoeShamoyTevinTomasZak
AsiaX10.6%6.1%7.5%14.0%3.9%30.0%X5.1%12.3%10.7%
Bria13.3%13.6%6.6%24.5%8.7%14.0%9.2%X5.8%4.3%X
Cali11.5%10.1%5.0%8.7%9.3%10.5%9.0%X4.6%22.5%8.8%
Jasmine11.3%11.4%6.0%8.7%17.0%8.3%11.6%X4.0%10.6%11.2%
Kayla7.0%4.2%52.1%6.8%6.0%5.7%5.2%X1.1%5.0%6.9%
Kenya6.9%X1.1%6.4%5.8%4.2%5.1%X59.3%5.0%6.2%
Lauren14.2%9.8%6.2%7.0%8.9%21.8%6.9%X5.2%10.6%9.3%
MariaXXXXXXXMatchXXX
Morgan5.2%8.8%5.1%9.1%10.6%10.1%9.1%X4.5%9.3%28.2%
Nutsa7.2%21.3%6.0%16.3%8.0%8.5%6.0%X5.4%10.4%11.0%
Samantha23.5%10.1%5.9%5.0%11.7%13.1%8.0%X5.0%10.1%7.7%

11:52: House is feeling good... the buzz seems to be going. They decide to play flip cup. Lewis pushes Tomas and Cali to the boom boom room.

11:53: Oh nooo... performance anxiety for Tomas.

12:00: Cam being super manipulative with Kayla and can't seem to find another girl. Really, really insecure right now.

12:03: Looks like Kwasi getting wound up about Cam... and he goes in for the shove!

The rest of the season preview shows a more aggressive house than we're used to. Kenya and Tevin go to the Truth Booth... we get to 10 matchup ceremonies (which means they're looking for a long season with only 5 matchup ceremonies in 8 episodes)... and Maria and Shamoy get disrupted a bit???

Wednesday, September 12, 2018

Season 7, Episode 6 Probabilities - Live Blog

10:10: Kwasi is grilling Kenya. Trying to figure out if she's still into Tevin. Says that Jasmine gave Tevin head on the bus!

10:11: Forget Taco Tuesday - it's Fight Night!

10:16: Jasmine, hanging out with Nutsa, says Tevin shares the blame... Kenya forgives Tevin! Interesting!

10:18: It's Zak and Morgan getting together.

10:19: Then it's Moe, Samantha, and Cali hanging out. Totally drama free. They feel like observers in the house rather than participants!

10:20: Ohhhh Moe is the funnest guy in the house!

10:21: Daniel hits the Fate Button and gets Kenya and Morgan.

10:24: Asia hits the Fate Button and... it's Brett and Kwasi.

10:30: Lots of best friends drama as Bria is mad at Morgan hooking up with Zak, and with Tevin being scared about losing his best friend Brett to Kenya.

Truth Booth #4

10:31: It's Brett and Kenya (6.3%) going to the Truth Booth and everyone is talking about the negative consequences if they're a match. Weird vibe.

10:36: Never seen a couple so happy about being no match before. They bring it down to 35,322 remaining combinations.

AndrewBrettCamDanielKwasiLewisMoeShamoyTevinTomasZak
AsiaX14.8%8.1%10.5%11.5%13.6%11.5%X7.5%11.3%11.2%
Bria10.3%9.7%7.1%9.4%10.1%9.6%14.6%X6.5%12.3%10.3%
Cali9.4%21.1%6.4%8.8%9.2%9.0%9.0%X5.9%11.9%9.2%
Jasmine10.2%9.8%7.0%9.5%12.1%14.6%10.5%X6.5%10.0%9.7%
Kayla7.2%6.7%39.9%6.7%7.3%7.0%7.1%X3.8%7.3%7.1%
Kenya7.3%X4.2%6.8%7.6%7.2%7.3%X44.7%7.6%7.3%
Lauren21.9%9.0%6.4%8.6%11.9%9.1%9.0%X5.8%9.3%9.0%
MariaXXXXXXXMatchXXX
Morgan13.7%9.8%7.2%9.4%10.2%9.9%10.2%X6.7%10.5%12.2%
Nutsa9.7%9.3%6.7%19.2%9.6%9.5%11.1%X6.1%9.6%9.4%
Samantha10.2%9.8%7.1%11.0%10.3%10.4%9.7%X6.5%10.2%14.7%

10:39: Bria isn't happy with Morgan. She's the baddest bitch in the house.

10:42: Asia trying to rally the house around strategy. Our guest blogger Nicole chimes in: "Asia likes being clean. Clearly she and Moe are a match."

Matchup Ceremony #4

10:44: Kayla picks Brett and Cam is pissed! He put all his eggs in one basket. But then Cam gets to be the second pick.
  • Kayla - Brett
  • Asia - Cam
  • Samantha - Moe
  • Morgan - Zak (repeat from ceremony 3)
  • Nutsa - Andrew
  • Lauren - Daniel
  • Cali - Tomas (repeat from ceremony 1)
  • Jasmine - Tevin
  • Kenya - Lewis
  • Bria - Kwasi
Blackout probability: 40.6% (14,348 of 35,322)
Instant win possible: No (less than 3 couples repeated from ceremony 1)
Maximum number of lights:  9
Most likely number of lights: 1 (blackout)

10:56: The most likely outcome is a blackout. And they cut to commercial...

11:00: It's two beams. And Terrence J starts talking trash. Kinda rude. He doesn't seem happy with the house. 12,860 possibilities remain.

AndrewBrettCamDanielKwasiLewisMoeShamoyTevinTomasZak
AsiaX15.2%9.6%9.8%11.5%13.5%11.3%X7.1%11.2%10.7%
Bria10.4%9.2%6.8%9.1%11.4%9.8%14.3%X6.2%12.7%10.1%
Cali9.5%20.9%6.3%9.0%9.2%8.8%8.9%X6.0%12.0%9.5%
Jasmine10.4%9.6%7.0%9.3%11.8%14.1%10.4%X7.2%10.1%10.1%
Kayla7.1%7.5%40.1%6.7%7.0%6.8%7.0%X3.8%7.1%7.0%
Kenya7.2%X4.0%6.6%7.3%8.4%7.2%X44.9%7.3%7.1%
Lauren21.7%8.7%6.0%9.7%12.4%8.9%8.6%X5.7%9.2%9.0%
MariaXXXXXXXMatchXXX
Morgan13.3%9.8%6.9%9.5%10.1%10.1%10.3%X6.7%10.8%12.4%
Nutsa10.6%9.5%6.5%19.2%9.1%9.2%10.8%X6.0%9.7%9.4%
Samantha10.0%9.6%6.8%11.0%10.0%10.5%11.2%X6.4%9.9%14.6%

Wednesday, September 5, 2018

Season 7, Episode 5 Live Blog

10:05: We got Shamoy and Maria in the Honeymoon Suite while the rest of the house tries to break up the week 1 "power couples."

10:06: A very relaxing-looking relationship rehab.

10:07: Terrence J says there's no truth booth or matchup ceremony this week. Interesting...

10:15: The first ex shows up and... big surprise, it's Zak's. The entire house is ready to unleash Bria on her.

10:16: Bria... at this point it's predictable.

10:17: A peaceful moment with Samantha and Daniel. And then Samantha's ex Tyler shows up.

10:21: Kenya's ex Daryl looks just like Tevin!

10:28: Zak is up and down with his ex. Morgan thinks he's moving on.

10:31: Kayla's ex Ikaika seems like he's got something sinister going on.

10:46: Ikaika definitely knows how to get under Kayla's skin... and now he wants to fight Cam.

10:52: Tomas tackles Ikaika and Kwasi is pumped!!

10:55: Back to the Bria show...

11:01: With Kayla out of the picture, Jasmine moves in on Tevin.

No new info this week!