Season 2, Episode 8 Probabilities - Live Blog - The 10 Matches are In

10:02 I wonder how many honeymoon suites they allocated. 6?

10:03 Nothing is a big sell like "I want someone like my mom or sister."

"His parents haven't ever been divorced... my parents haven't ever been divorced!!"

10:15 This is gross.

Our pairs are:

Brandon & Briana (40%)
Nathan & Christina (20%)
Anthony & Jessica (no match)

Per last week's chart - Brandon is either with Briana or Tyler, so picking him would definitely be the best strategy here.

10:16 These guys are idiots. If that logic to vote for Christina makes sense now, it would have made even more sense before...

10:25 Yeah, calling Nathan a puppy dog is right on. Go out and have fun!

10:27 Whipped cream vs. cool whip is pretty easy to predict the answer - whipped cream fans aren't ever going to even ask the question.

Truth Booth

Nathan and Christina in. If they are a perfect match, it'll tell us all ten pairings - as only two combinations remain with Nathan and Christina, and they have different second matches for Nathan (Ashley and Briana). If they aren't a perfect match - then Ellie and Nathan are a perfect match as well as Jasmine - Alex.

10:33 And they aren't. We have our first two inferred perfect matches: Ellie and Nathan are a perfect match, as are Jasmine and Alex.

	Alex	Anthony	Brandon	Curtis	Dario	Garland	John	Layton	Nathan	Pratt
Alexandria	X	50%	X	X	X	50%	X	X	X	X
Ashley	X	X	X	X	50%	X	X	50%	X	X
Brianna	X	50%	50%	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Ellie	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X
Jasmine	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Jenni	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X
Jessica	X	X	X	X	50%	50%	X	X	X	X
Paris	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match
Shelby	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X
Tyler	X	X	50%	X	X	X	X	50%	X	X
Christina	X	25%	X	X	25%	25%	X	25%	X	X

Here are your 8 remaining combinations. There are really only 2 matches of the main 10, with each having 4 different Christina possibilities:

1. Christina - Anthony, Alexandria - Anthony, Ashley - Dario, Briana - Brandon, Jessica - Garland, Tyler - Layton
2. Christina - Dario, Alexandria - Anthony, Ashley - Dario, Briana - Brandon, Jessica - Garland, Tyler - Layton
3. Christina - Garland, Alexandria - Anthony, Ashley - Dario, Briana - Brandon, Jessica - Garland, Tyler - Layton
4. Christina - Layton, Alexandria - Anthony, Ashley - Dario, Briana - Brandon, Jessica - Garland, Tyler - Layton
5. Christina - Anthony, Alexandria - Garland, Ashley - Layton, Briana - Anthony, Jessica - Dario, Tyler - Brandon
6. Christina - Dario, Alexandria - Garland, Ashley - Layton, Briana - Anthony, Jessica - Dario, Tyler - Brandon
7. Christina - Garland, Alexandria - Garland, Ashley - Layton, Briana - Anthony, Jessica - Dario, Tyler - Brandon
8. Christina - Layton, Alexandria - Garland, Ashley - Layton, Briana - Anthony, Jessica - Dario, Tyler - Brandon

Matchup Ceremony

• Briana + Nathan (confirmed no match)
• Jasmine + Alex (match!)
• Jessica + Anthony (confirmed no match)
• Tyler + Brandon
• Alexandria + Garland
• Ellie + Layton (confirmed no match)
• Ashley + Dario
• Christina attempts to steal Anthony from Jessica. He declines!

This means they will see either 5 or 6 lights. 5 lights mean possibilities 1-4 from the list above, 6 lights mean possibilities 5-8. Each is a set of 10 correct!

We have our correct 10!

The 10

1. Paris + Pratt (Truth Booth #4)
2. Shelby + Curtis (Truth Booth #5)
3. Jenni + John (Truth Booth #7)
4. Ellie + Nathan (inferred after Truth Booth #8)
5. Jasmine + Alex (inferred after Truth Booth #8)
6. Alexandria + Anthony
7. Ashley + Dario
8. Briana + Brandon
9. Jessica + Garland
10. Tyler + Layton

Christina's match is either Anthony, Dario, Garland, or Layton.

	Alex	Anthony	Brandon	Curtis	Dario	Garland	John	Layton	Nathan	Pratt
Alexandria	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Ashley	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X
Brianna	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Ellie	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X
Jasmine	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Jenni	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X
Jessica	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X
Paris	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match
Shelby	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X
Tyler	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X
Christina	X	25%	X	X	25%	25%	X	25%	X	X

Season 2, Episode 7 Probabilities

No live blog tonight, but here are the probabilities:

Some couples hinted at during this episode: Jasmine & Alex (33.3%), Ashley & Dario (43.0%), and Tyler & Garland (no match).

Jenni & John (12.0%) get sent to the Truth Booth ahead of Jasmine & Brandon (24.1%) and Alexandria & Alex (11.6%). This is huge for them - they're down to 30 possible pairings. Season 1 took until after the 5th ceremony to get to this many possibilities left.

	Alex	Anthony	Brandon	Curtis	Dario	Garland	John	Layton	Nathan	Pratt
Alexandria	16.7%	16.7%	X	X	X	50.0%	X	16.7%	X	X
Ashley	16.7%	X	X	X	50.0%	X	X	16.7%	16.7%	X
Briana	16.7%	33.3%	16.7%	X	X	X	X	X	33.3%	X
Ellie	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	50.0%	50.0%	X
Jasmine	50.0%	50.0%	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Jenni	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X
Jessica	X	X	X	X	50.0%	50.0%	X	X	X	X
Paris	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match
Shelby	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X
Tyler	X	X	83.3%	X	X	X	X	16.7%	X	X
Christina	X	20.0%	X	X	20.0%	20.0%	X	20.0%	20.0%	X

Matchup Ceremony

• Dario + Ashley
• Alex + Jasmine
• Layton + Ellie
• Tyler + Brandon
• Anthony + Briana
• Nathan + Christina
• Garland + Jessica

6 matches leave only 10 combinations left!

	Alex	Anthony	Brandon	Curtis	Dario	Garland	John	Layton	Nathan	Pratt
Alexandria	X	40%	X	X	X	60%	X	X	X	X
Ashley	10%	X	X	X	40%	X	X	40%	10%	X
Briana	10%	40%	40%	X	X	X	X	X	10%	X
Ellie	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	20%	80%	X
Jasmine	80%	20%	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Jenni	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X
Jessica	X	X	X	X	60%	40%	X	X	X	X
Paris	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match
Shelby	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X
Tyler	X	X	60%	X	X	X	X	40%	X	X
Christina	X	20%	X	X	20%	20%	X	20%	20%	X

The last 10 guesses:

1. Christina - Anthony, Alexandria - Anthony, Ashley - Dario, Briana - Brandon, Ellie - Nathan, Jasmine - Alex, Jessica - Garland, Tyler - Layton
2. Christina - Dario, Alexandria - Anthony, Ashley - Dario, Briana - Brandon, Ellie - Nathan, Jasmine - Alex, Jessica - Garland, Tyler - Layton
3. Christina - Garland, Alexandria - Anthony, Ashley - Dario, Briana - Brandon, Ellie - Nathan, Jasmine - Alex, Jessica - Garland, Tyler - Layton
4. Christina - Layton, Alexandria - Anthony, Ashley - Dario, Briana - Brandon, Ellie - Nathan, Jasmine - Alex, Jessica - Garland, Tyler - Layton
5. Christina - Anthony, Alexandria - Garland, Ashley - Layton, Briana - Anthony, Ellie - Nathan, Jasmine - Alex, Jessica - Dario, Tyler - Brandon
6. Christina - Dario, Alexandria - Garland, Ashley - Layton, Briana - Anthony, Ellie - Nathan, Jasmine - Alex, Jessica - Dario, Tyler - Brandon
7. Christina - Garland, Alexandria - Garland, Ashley - Layton, Briana - Anthony, Ellie - Nathan, Jasmine - Alex, Jessica - Dario, Tyler - Brandon
8. Christina - Layton, Alexandria - Garland, Ashley - Layton, Briana - Anthony, Ellie - Nathan, Jasmine - Alex, Jessica - Dario, Tyler - Brandon
9. Christina - Nathan, Alexandria - Garland, Ashley - Nathan, Briana - Alex, Ellie - Layton, Jasmine - Anthony, Jessica - Dario, Tyler - Brandon
10. Christina - Nathan, Alexandria - Garland, Ashley - Alex, Briana - Nathan, Ellie - Layton, Jasmine - Anthony, Jessica - Dario, Tyler - Brandon

Season 2, Episode 6 Probabilities - Live Blog

To recap - we have two perfect matches, Pratt + Paris and Curtis + Shelby.

10:02 Garland thinks that Jessica and Alex are a match (11.3%), but that Layton and Jenni aren't (6.6%)

10:04 I have a feeling I know who Alexandria's dad is. Tyler's mom looks just like her too. And Ellie's grandmother's accent is a giveaway.

Anthony making a good decision on checking out the moms.

10:12 Our couples for the date are John + Jasmine (5.8%), Dario + Briana (7.5%), and Alex + Alexandria (8.8%). Alex originally wanted Briana which would have been a little better (13.6%), but this isn't a great selection of pairings. These guys don't know very much about what's up.

10:16 Christina's step dad calling her on her shit. But she seems to say that she's going to cut off from Brandon every episode.

Christina's step dad is pretty cool. I might watch a spinoff of this show with just the parents.

10:18 Anthony's face is priceless as Alex tells him about Layton calling him the worst. Wow.

10:20 Layton isn't afraid to take shots.

10:26 Brandon being a little nicer to Ellie. That's nice.

10:28 People getting heated.

10:33 John and Jasmine seem to have this down. Anthony pretty clear that it's a strategy move based on the first episode.

10:39 Truth booth: John and Jasmine. No match. This only eliminates 35 of the 603 remaining combinations. Brutal.

	Alex	Anthony	Brandon	Curtis	Dario	Garland	John	Layton	Nathan	Pratt
Alexandria	8.5%	18.5%	X	X	4.4%	50.2%	11.1%	7.4%	X	X
Ashley	9.2%	7.0%	12.5%	X	36.1%	4.9%	14.1%	8.6%	7.6%	X
Briana	12.7%	16.7%	18.3%	X	7.9%	9.3%	15.0%	8.8%	11.3%	X
Ellie	X	17.4%	X	X	9.3%	6.5%	11.4%	48.9%	6.3%	X
Jasmine	35.7%	17.1%	16.7%	X	7.6%	X	X	11.4%	11.4%	X
Jenni	22.0%	X	21.7%	X	9.9%	9.5%	10.6%	7.0%	19.4%	X
Jessica	12.0%	6.7%	X	X	16.4%	13.4%	22.5%	X	29.0%	X
Paris	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match
Shelby	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X
Tyler	X	16.5%	30.8%	X	8.5%	6.2%	15.3%	7.7%	15.0%	X
Christina	17.3%	16.5%	X	X	16.5%	16.5%	X	16.5%	16.5%	X

10:40 they seem very disappointed. More so than the other more lusty couples.

10:43 check in on the honeymoon suite. This didn't happen last year and is a pretty cool idea.

10:44 Tyler is the Judah Friedlander of this show. Did she bring enough hats?

10:52 Tyler's mom, who was my second favorite parent, did NOT like Garland. And she picks him anyway!

Matchup Ceremony

• Ashley + Brandon
• Jasmine + Nathan
• Briana + Dario
• Ellie + Anthony
• Tyler + Garland
• Alexandria + John
• Jenni + Layton
• Jessica + Alex
• Christina tries to steal Nathan from Jasmine and he RESISTS! First guy turning down Christina.

10:59 No matches! Wow! Again! Ryan's scolding is correct in this case - eliminating all of these couples only whittles them down to 249 possibilities.

	Alex	Anthony	Brandon	Curtis	Dario	Garland	John	Layton	Nathan	Pratt
Alexandria	11.6%	20.1%	X	X	8.0%	49.0%	X	11.2%	X	X
Ashley	12.4%	6.0%	X	X	43.0%	2.0%	18.1%	11.2%	7.2%	X
Briana	15.3%	22.1%	18.9%	X	X	8.8%	13.7%	8.0%	13.3%	X
Ellie	X	X	X	X	13.3%	8.8%	18.1%	46.6%	13.3%	X
Jasmine	33.3%	24.9%	24.1%	X	5.6%	X	X	12.0%	X	X
Jenni	27.3%	X	26.9%	X	4.8%	10.8%	12.0%	X	18.1%	X
Jessica	X	8.0%	X	X	21.7%	20.5%	21.7%	X	28.1%	X
Paris	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match
Shelby	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X
Tyler	X	18.9%	30.1%	X	3.6%	X	16.5%	10.8%	20.1%	X
Christina	13.7%	17.3%	X	X	17.3%	17.3%	X	17.3%	17.3%	X

Season 2, Episode 5 Probabilities - Live Blog

10:02 Jessica's not here for the money! She's here for one thing... sex.

10:04 Everyone is in denial about the loss and is ignoring one thing - that they just got the equivalent of 10 truth booths!

10:05 OK, it's pretty cool that we get to see the honeymoon suite.

10:06 Curtis with the big-time pep talk. Maybe Jessica will fall in love with him now??

10:08 Guys running in every direction. Dario and Curtis are the first two winners.

10:13 Dario picks Jenni (10.6%), Curtis picks Shelby (11.2%), and Brandon picks Jasmine (9.7%). Some bad choices so far.

10:16 Anthony wins the makeout party.

10:18 Anthony being so nice to Ellie it hurts. Come on man, be more straightforward.

10:23 That water slide looks fun.

10:24 Brandon is totally unconvincing.

10:25 And now, just so whiny. Yuck.

Truth Booth

10:29 Curtis and Shelby are the pick. Good choice.

10:30 Wait, did Nicole Byer just spoil that they're headed to the honeymoon suite?

10:33 Yep... Curtis and Shelby are a perfect match! Didn't see that coming. But Christina stays alive for another day.

This eliminates a few other pairings and brings us down to 1,584 combinations. But no additional matches.

	Alex	Anthony	Brandon	Curtis	Dario	Garland	John	Layton	Nathan	Pratt
Alexandria	9.2%	17.7%	X	X	8.0%	49.1%	10.4%	5.7%	X	X
Ashley	10.4%	12.9%	14.2%	X	31.2%	5.4%	12.0%	6.9%	7.0%	X
Brianna	14.8%	15.6%	19.0%	X	9.4%	8.8%	11.4%	10.2%	10.9%	X
Ellie	X	15.8%	X	X	8.8%	7.7%	12.8%	49.0%	5.9%	X
Jasmine	31.3%	16.9%	17.6%	X	7.7%	X	6.7%	9.7%	10.1%	X
Jenni	20.4%	X	19.5%	X	11.2%	9.8%	15.1%	6.9%	17.0%	X
Jessica	13.9%	6.1%	X	X	13.0%	8.9%	18.6%	X	39.5%	X
Paris	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match
Shelby	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X
Tyler	X	14.9%	29.7%	X	10.8%	10.3%	13.1%	11.7%	9.6%	X
Christina	23.6%	15.3%	X	X	15.3%	15.3%	X	15.3%	15.3%	X

10:37 Well, smart of Curtis to get it in with Briana quickly before they go. And it seems like Curtis and Shelby didn't hit it off at all.

10:41 Nice of Anthony to be cool about Jenni going off with John. Especially after getting that head.

10:44 Curtis called Brandon out for being 4 failures deep! Everyone is tired of him and wants him out.

10:50 Layton throwing punches everywhere!

Matchup Ceremony

• Anthony + Ashley
• Brandon + Jasmine
• Garland + Tyler
• John + Jenni
• Layton + Briana
• Alex + Christina
• Nathan + Jessica
• Dario + Alexandria

10:52 Ellie on the outside looking in again.

11:00 3 matches. Not unexpected given the low probabilities of these matches. 603 combinations left. Took the season 1 people 3.5 episodes to get there - so these guys are catching up!

	Alex	Anthony	Brandon	Curtis	Dario	Garland	John	Layton	Nathan	Pratt
Alexandria	8.8%	22.4%	X	X	4.1%	47.3%	10.4%	7.0%	X	X
Ashley	10.3%	6.6%	13.4%	X	34.0%	7.1%	13.3%	8.1%	7.1%	X
Briana	13.6%	16.6%	18.9%	X	7.5%	10.4%	14.1%	8.3%	10.6%	X
Ellie	X	16.4%	X	X	8.8%	6.1%	10.8%	51.9%	6.0%	X
Jasmine	33.7%	16.1%	15.8%	X	7.1%	X	5.8%	10.8%	10.8%	X
Jenni	22.4%	X	22.1%	X	10.1%	10.6%	10.0%	6.6%	18.2%	X
Jessica	11.3%	6.3%	X	X	15.4%	12.6%	21.2%	X	33.2%	X
Paris	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match
Shelby	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X
Tyler	X	15.6%	29.9%	X	12.9%	5.8%	14.4%	7.3%	14.1%	X
Christina	16.3%	16.7%	X	X	16.7%	16.7%	X	16.7%	16.7%	X