Monday, August 12, 2019

Season 8, Episode 9 Probabilities - Live Blog

Mondays at 11:03pm are rough. Let's hope to get some momentum... not much after last week's lack of matchup ceremony and no new info.

11:06: Danny captures the dynamic of this season, where everyone is chasing someone else... with him being the person at the end of the chain.

11:07: Remy loves that Paige is playing hard to get. Kari is interested in Remy... the chase continues.

11:09: The AYTO party is the producers' easiest way to instigate things in the house... and sure enough it's happening. Max is frustrated with Justin doing what he wants, and Nour frustrated with Kai doing what he wants.

11:12: The Nour-Jasmine fight escalates and now the crew steps in. Hard to imagine they'll figure out they're a match...

11:16: It's Paige escalating the fight?? Danny and Remy reacting to this.

11:19: Justin is trying to get a little something from everyone in the house during this party, starting with Amber and also Kari.

11:27: Nour is done with Kai. "Walk away."

11:28: Kai has bounced around the whole house, looking for love from everyone. This party doesn't feel great for his mental health.

11:31: It's the morning after.

11:35: Paige and Remy finally start to hit it off.

11:37: Basit levels with Kai.

11:42: Jonathan has totally flipped from the first half of the season. Now he's very caring with Basit. This feels as much of a honeymoon as we've seen in the series - maybe that's why the producers told us they were a perfect match?

11:44: This episode has had more cuts than any other episode... seems like they are killing time on the way to having a matchup ceremony at the end of the episode.

The entire pool is staring at Kai.

11:46: This has become the Kai intervention. Feels like they need to put in the Basit and Jonathan segments just to avoid making this entire season just about Kai.

11:52: Hey, it's the matchup ceremony music! And the first Terrence J appearance of the episode. Welcome back Brandon and Aasha.

Matchup Ceremony #7
  • Kari - Remy
  • Kai - Jasmine (previously inferred no match)
  • Justin - Max (repeat from ceremonies 1, 4, and 6)
  • Jonathan - Basit (previosuly inferred perfect match)
  • Nour - Kylie (previously inferred no match)
  • Danny - Amber (previously inferred no match)
  • Paige - Jenna (repeat from ceremony 4)
Blackout probability: 0%
Instant win possible: No
Maximum number of lights: 4
Most likely number of lights: 3

There will still be possibilities no matter the number of beams. 3 beams narrows it to 9 combinations. 4 beams leaves just 2, confirming Danny and Kai, Jenna and Paige.

Instead, we get 3 beams, leaving 9 possibilities and no new matches.
AashaAmberBasitBrandonDannyJasmineJennaJonathan
AashaXXXMatchXXXX
AmberXXXXXXXX
BasitXXXXXXXMatch
BrandonMatchXXXXXXX
DannyXXXXXXXX
JasmineXXXXXXXX
JennaXXXXXXXX
JonathanXXMatchXXXXX
JustinX11.1%XXXXXX
KaiXXXX88.9%XXX
KariX22.2%XXXX11.1%X
KylieX22.2%XX11.1%XXX
MaxX11.1%XXXXXX
NourXXXXXMatchXX
PaigeX11.1%XXXX88.9%X
RemyX22.2%XXXXXX
JustinKaiKariKylieMaxNourPaigeRemy
AashaXXXXXXXX
Amber11.1%X22.2%22.2%11.1%X11.1%22.2%
BasitXXXXXXXX
BrandonXXXXXXXX
DannyX88.9%X11.1%XXXX
JasmineXXXXXMatchXX
JennaXX11.1%XXX88.9%X
JonathanXXXXXXXX
JustinXX33.3%22.2%11.1%XX22.2%
KaiXXXXXXX11.1%
Kari33.3%XXX33.3%XXX
Kylie22.2%XXX22.2%XX22.2%
Max11.1%X33.3%22.2%XXX22.2%
NourXXXXXXXX
PaigeXXXXXXXX
Remy22.2%11.1%X22.2%22.2%XXX
  1. Amber-Justin, Danny-Kai, Jenna-Paige, Kari-Max, Kylie-Remy
  2. Amber-Kari, Danny-Kai, Jenna-Paige, Justin-Kylie, Max-Remy
  3. Amber-Kari, Danny-Kai, Jenna-Paige, Justin-Remy, Kylie-Max
  4. Amber-Kylie, Danny-Kai, Jenna-Paige, Justin-Kari, Max-Remy
  5. Amber-Kylie, Danny-Kai, Jenna-Paige, Justin-Remy, Kari-Max
  6. Amber-Max, Danny-Kai, Jenna-Paige, Justin-Kari, Kylie-Remy
  7. Amber-Paige, Danny-Kylie, Jenna-Kari, Justin-Max, Kai-Remy
  8. Amber-Remy, Danny-Kai, Jenna-Paige, Justin-Kari, Kylie-Max
  9. Amber-Remy, Danny-Kai, Jenna-Paige, Justin-Kylie, Kari-Max
The VMAs are in two Mondays and there is no Are You The One? episode on the schedule. The next episode's previews mention three new perfect matches. Could this mean just 10 episodes? Doesn't seem like it after the matchup ceremony... but the preview suggests a resolution to the Justin - Max and Danny - Kai dynamic... if they try the only Justin - Max combo left, they might win it.

53 comments:

  1. It won't let me click anything between the dots?

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  2. Replies
    1. VMAs are in two Mondays and there is no Are You The One? episode on the schedule. The next episode's previews mention three new perfect matches. Could this mean just 10 episodes

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    2. Yea that was the spoiler inbetween the dots.

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    3. On my tv it shows an episode on sunday and another on monday.

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    4. Cant be only 10 episodes, 3 more truth booths and 3 more match ups. Added an 11th episode on sept 2nd

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  3. Jonathan and Basit are a match***

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  4. So I'm really starting to think that this season is gonna last to September if they literally are stuck on 3 beams and that was just the 7th matchup...

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    Replies
    1. It most likely will. Because there's a new episode next week, August 19th, (probably the 8th matchup and I highly doubt they'll figure it out in just one more episode) no new episode on the 26th aka VMAs day, and the next week is September 2nd.

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  5. I'm not sure they will win esp if Nour and Jas are a perfect match lol

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    Replies
    1. Same. It's hard to believe they'll get to that point unless they really do the math themselves.

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    2. I think Danny is doing the math. They are lucky to have him. Amber is just gorgeous tho. She's def my favorite this season.

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    3. She is the total package. Sweet, nerdy, gorgeous, loyal to a fault... lol anyways, rant over but really!

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  6. Once we get the chart, I will make new predictions. Last week I had:

    AYTO Prediction - 8/8 (Week 7)
    Aasha & Brandon 100%
    Basit & Jonathon 100%
    Nour & Jasmine 100%
    Jenna & Paige 91%
    Danny & Kai 91%
    Kari & Max 27.3%
    Kylie & Justin 27.3%
    Amber & Remy 18.2%

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    Replies
    1. My predictions remain the same this week. I am more positive about Justin & Kylie because Justin threw shade at Kari when she quoted Kylie’s tweet about starting a youtube channel telling her to talk about Kari & Kylie.

      AYTO Prediction - 8/12 (Week 8)
      Aasha & Brandon 100%
      Basit & Jonathon 100%
      Nour & Jasmine 100%
      Jenna & Paige 88.9%
      Danny & Kai 88.9%
      Kari & Max 33.3%
      Kylie & Justin 22.2%
      Amber & Remy 22.2%

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    2. But I think justin an max are a nice couple yes justin plays but look how they get along what they been through

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  7. I need to go back and figure out why Nour and Jasmine are an inferred match.

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  8. I'm pretty confident that the three beams were Brandon and Aasha, Jonathan and Basit, and Paige and Jenna honestly.

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    Replies
    1. Also, just wanna say I hope they actually use the truthbooth wisely next week and actually confirm one of the matches for themselves.

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  9. You could definitely be right about them trying the last Max-Justin combo - looks like Jenna and Kari are sitting together at the ceremony in the preview

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  10. I don't understand how there could have been 4 beams. If there were four, that would mean the matches were Jonathan-Basit, Jenna-Paige, Kari-Remy and Justin-Max. But there was only one possibility with Justin-Max which does not have the Kari-Remy pairing. Even if there were 4 beams, that would have confirmed Justin-Max which would have left just the one combination?

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  11. They definitely try the only Justin-Max possibility next week. In the preview for the next episode at the end of this episode you can see Jenna and Kari sitting next to each other behind Justin and Max when it shows Justin and Max.

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  12. If Justin/Max, and Kai/Danny sit. How will they be able to tell if either is correct?

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  13. I guess i'm the only one in the back of my head going like Danny and Kai being a perfect match is pretty slim Kai's not the kind of person a matchmaker would pick out for Danny. Kai's a "Fuckboy" and is incapable of maintaining a monogamous relationship. Which is why he's not Danny's PM.

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    Replies
    1. Yeah but Danny see's right through Kai's insecurities and doesn't judge or vilify him for it. Also Danny is a very loving and patient person but in a balanced way in which he wouldn't allow Kai to take advantage of him or bullshit him. I could see how they are a match since Danny is a nurturing person and Kai is sensitive. Kai is posturing right now. All the flirting and messing around and going from person to person is just because he craves a lot of attention.

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    2. So I see the advantage of Kai getting Danny as a match, I don't see the advantage of Danny getting Kai as a match.

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    3. It would be a parasitic relationship Danny would be more like a parent then an equal partner for kai

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  14. The problem with combination 8 is that all the couples make sense to me, even though I do not want it to! Danny deserves someone more mature for sure, but I think he gets closer to Kai in the upcoming episodes and Kai said that they redeem themselves in the upcoming episode.
    Somehow, I do not want Max and Justin to be a match. Max deserves someone a whole lot more loyal and focused on him. (Amber or Kari)

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    1. I also am not a fan of Jax. I think that Justin's perfect match is someone that is not too clingy/possessive and doesn't get jealous easily. Basically someone that allows Justin to be himself and is more fun and adventurous. I really don't think they are a match I think the audience and Max really want them to a match.

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  15. Can someone explain to me why Jasmine and Nour are a perfect match???

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  16. I agree Danny or someone is doing the math, especially if they try the Max/Justin option next week as a way to rule it out. I think MTV gave us Basit/Jonathan because even armchair "strategists" could figure it out. Low key I also think that Danny and the house have figured that out and agreed to not send them to the truth booth so there's never a blackout risk.

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    Replies
    1. I think you are definitely right about that, because I recall one of Basit/Jonathan saying last night "this might be as close as we get to the honeymoon suite" which would be a weird thing to say if they were still planning to try and win a date/go into the truth booth.

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  17. I hope Danny doesn't get Kai as a perfect match. He is too precious for Kai's f-boy ways.

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  18. This show is melting my brain. If it's taught me one thing, it's that there is no such thing as a perfect match. The so-called experts should be dragged out into the light of day to explain how they calculated their matches. They can't predict chemistry. The one redeeming thing about this show is the visibility and platform it gives sexually fluid young adults.

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  19. I LOVE this season. It still has drama, and yet most contestants act way more emotionally mature than contestants from other seasons. Yeah, there are some fights and some people act out and are overall childish (Looking at you, Nour). But you get even someone that's the flirty fuckboy type like Justin, and you see him talking to Kai in a way that addresses the issues without forgetting to be empathetic with Kai's feelings.
    I hope numbers are being good and they consider keeping the sexually fluid approach. It makes the overall show way healthier while fighting for visiblity/representation AND it gives the show and edge that makes it different from similar shows.

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  20. how are nour and jas a match lol. i hope they win. but not sure if they will be able to figure out the math

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  21. I think these are the perfect matches:

    Max and Justin
    Noor and jasmine
    Kylie and Danny
    Kai and Remy
    Kari and Jenna
    Paige and amber
    Basit and Jonathan
    Asha and Brandon

    I feel like those are the only ones
    that make sense together..just my opinion :)

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  22. I made this while on three mango white claws last night, and after sending it to my friend she directed me to this blog! hahaha. good work, seriously.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1iGyKSwBM7i8CeljGfdVojsDwG9poM75C5yHVDTFioM0/edit#gid=0

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  23. I figured it out
    Basit jonathan
    Max Justin
    Brandon aasha
    Rémy danny
    Paige Amber
    Jasmine Nour
    Kai kylie
    Jenna kari


    Don’t tel me I’m the first to figure this out. I’m From the netherlands and we are behind on scedule so I have only seen 5 match-up ceremony’s but because of the black-out it is clear now

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  24. To me is either option 1 or 7:

    Amber-Justin, Danny-Kai, Jenna-Paige, Kari-Max, Kylie-Remy
    Amber-Paige, Danny-Kylie, Jenna-Kari, Justin-Max, Kai-Remy

    ReplyDelete