Wednesday, October 25, 2017

Season 6, Episode 6 Probabilities - Live Blog

10:01: Welcome back to the live blog!

10:06: I feel bad for not knowing that the title of the weekly challenge is the Getaway Challenge! The guys guess and get to eliminate a different guy from the challenge. Date winners get to PICK their dates.

10:07: Audrey told her parents she was doing an internship...

10:08: Nurys's nickname is Chewie. Kareem eliminates Ethan...  out of strategy. Malcolm bounced on Diandra's. Anthony guesses Zoe's answer correctly, eliminating Shad. Nicole's parents wanting money knock out Michael. Jada's parents know Jada doesn't like the short guys Dimitri. Geles's mom comes in and Kareem gets confident... and wrong.

10:10: Alexis's grandmother steals the show... Ethan says he'd pick her over 8 of the girls. Just trying to get camera time??? And then Anthony gets knocked out, forgetting that Alexis basically kissed the whole house!!

10:11: Why is Clinton trying to step up? Shouldn't he let someone else answer the question and eliminate someone else?

10:15: Tyler steps us, like he should. And he gets it right - Uche's mom thinks she's a virgin. And Tyler is smart enough to keep Clinton in and knock out Joe. (Little do they know Joe has the highest probability of a match in the house!)

10:16: Tyler picks Jada (9.9%), but says he'd rather pick Nicole (36.6%). Clinton takes Uche (34.2%) and they're the early favorite for the Truth Booth. Keith, who quietly stayed alive, picks Alivia (7.9%) for the date because she's a better fit than Alexis (13.1%). Any doubt who's going to the Truth Booth?

10:18: Joe is jealous... thinking Alivia is the best looking girl in the house.

10:19: Kareem saying Joe needs to STEP UP! but that he won't.

Truth Booth #5

10:26: Big surprise, it's Clinton and Uche!

10:31: No match leaves 12,480 possibilities. Uche is crushed. Clint in disbelief.

AnthonyClintonDimitriEthanJoeKareemKeithMalcolmMichaelShadTyler
Alexis10.0%11.5%17.6%4.9%2.4%6.1%19.9%9.3%7.0%4.4%7.0%
Alivia7.9%9.6%7.4%6.0%1.5%27.8%5.0%20.6%5.2%3.7%5.4%
Audrey5.0%5.6%2.8%3.9%X3.7%3.3%4.7%1.9%67.1%1.9%
Diandra3.2%11.8%19.4%9.9%2.2%17.8%8.4%9.2%7.6%3.4%7.3%
GelesX14.0%9.8%10.9%2.3%8.2%9.0%14.5%22.9%0.6%7.8%
Jada10.2%10.7%8.3%25.6%2.4%5.4%6.6%9.2%6.2%4.1%11.3%
Keyana26.4%10.4%8.5%X2.1%5.4%6.6%8.8%22.9%2.6%6.2%
Nicole9.7%9.5%X13.9%0.5%6.5%6.7%8.1%6.1%2.0%36.9%
Nurys10.8%13.0%12.5%10.3%2.5%7.6%22.1%X8.2%5.6%7.4%
Uche14.3%X11.7%12.0%3.8%10.0%10.2%13.0%10.0%6.4%8.7%
Zoe2.6%3.9%1.9%2.7%80.3%1.4%2.3%2.6%2.2%0.1%X

10:39: Jada flipping out over Uche getting mad at her for moving in on Clinton.

Matchup Ceremony #5

10:51: Joe is saying they're playing the game all wrong... but he and Zoe are the most likely match.

10:53: Ethan mad that the girls are clustering around a specific group of guys while nobody seems to want him, but he's right that someone in the house has to be his match and that they should be pursuing that.
  • Anthony - Nicole
  • Malcolm - Diandra
  • Kareem - Alivia (repeat from ceremonies 1-3)
  • Joe - Zoe (repeat from ceremonies 1, 3, and 4)
  • Shad - Audrey (repeat from ceremonies 1 and 4)
  • Tyler - Keyana
  • Ethan - Geles
  • Keith - Alexis (repeat from ceremonies 1 and 2)
  • Clinton - Jada
  • Dimitri - Uche
  • Michael - Nurys
Blackout odds: 0.2% (21 of 12,480)
Instant win possible: No, repeated more than 3 couples from ceremony 1
Most likely number of lights: 2

10:58: Joe is cheering for a blackout - that would certainly reduce the possibilities by a lot.

10:59: It's 1 beam. 2,198 combinations remain. Terrence J is really negative towards the house, cursing and telling them they are going to lose the million.
AnthonyClintonDimitriEthanJoeKareemKeithMalcolmMichaelShadTyler
Alexis10.4%14.5%27.6%5.8%4.5%9.4%X7.8%6.9%9.6%3.4%
Alivia9.8%12.4%6.6%4.1%4.5%1.1%6.2%38.8%6.1%8.1%2.3%
Audrey11.5%11.2%7.0%5.4%X8.2%7.5%8.7%3.8%33.8%2.9%
DiandraX11.3%26.9%4.0%3.8%31.1%7.0%X6.3%9.7%X
GelesX18.5%9.8%X4.0%11.0%10.4%16.9%23.7%2.5%3.2%
Jada10.2%X3.5%59.0%3.0%4.3%3.6%4.0%1.0%5.4%6.0%
Keyana25.6%7.5%6.2%X3.0%4.7%5.1%5.6%37.4%5.0%X
NicoleX4.4%X6.7%0.3%4.1%1.8%1.4%1.1%3.4%76.8%
Nurys9.9%12.7%8.3%3.9%4.0%8.1%41.6%XX10.0%1.4%
Uche17.6%XX8.5%7.7%13.8%12.7%13.1%10.2%12.4%4.0%
Zoe5.0%7.6%4.1%2.7%65.1%4.1%4.0%3.8%3.4%0.2%X

We have a few new inferred no matches - including a number of VERY high profile couples, sound off in the comments if you can figure out why they're guaranteed not to be matches!
  • Alexis & Keith
  • Diandra & Anthony, Malcolm, or Tyler
  • Geles & Ethan
  • Jada & Clinton
  • Keyana & Tyler
  • Nicole & Anthony
  • Nurys & Michael
  • Uche & Dimitri

Wednesday, October 18, 2017

Season 6, Episode 5 Probabilities

No live blog tonight.

Truth Booth #4

Dimitri and Nicole got in the Truth Booth, and they are NO MATCH. But we knew this already! Still 105,376 possibilities.

Matchup Ceremony #4
  • Alexis - Dimitri
  • Diandra - Kareem
  • Zoe - Joe (repeat from ceremonies 1 and 3)
  • Uche - Clinton (repeat from ceremonies 1-3)
  • Audrey - Shad (repeat from ceremony 1)
  • Jada - Tyler
  • Keyana - Anthony
  • Nicole - Ethan
  • Geles - Michael
  • Nurys - Keith
  • Alivia - Malcolm

Blackout odds: 8.9% (9,411 of 105,376)
Instant win possible: Yes
Most likely number of lights: 2

3 beams of light mean 18,980 combinations remain.

AnthonyClintonDimitriEthanJoeKareemKeithMalcolmMichaelShadTyler
Alexis12.6%7.5%13.2%5.7%4.4%8.9%13.1%11.3%9.8%5.7%7.8%
Alivia10.2%6.3%7.4%9.4%3.4%18.3%7.9%18.2%7.8%4.5%6.6%
Audrey5.2%3.7%1.9%5.5%X4.3%4.0%5.2%1.2%66.4%2.6%
Diandra2.1%7.7%31.6%11.0%3.1%13.5%5.5%9.3%7.9%2.3%6.0%
GelesX9.2%9.6%13.7%4.1%10.4%11.4%11.7%21.0%0.4%8.5%
Jada8.8%7.0%8.9%16.8%4.4%8.4%9.9%11.3%9.1%5.5%9.9%
Keyana24.4%6.9%8.8%X4.4%9.0%10.2%11.5%15.1%1.7%8.0%
Nicole9.9%6.3%X12.0%1.4%7.4%7.7%8.6%7.2%3.1%36.6%
Nurys12.7%8.5%8.2%13.0%4.4%9.7%19.3%X10.2%5.8%8.2%
Uche9.4%34.2%7.7%7.9%2.5%6.6%6.7%8.5%6.5%4.2%5.7%
Zoe4.7%2.6%2.6%5.0%67.9%3.6%4.4%4.4%4.1%0.6%X


Wednesday, October 11, 2017

Season 6, Episode 4 Probabilities - Live Blog

Another truth booth to lead us off tonight, with Malcolm and Nurys.

Truth Booth #3

No match! 328,840 possibilities left.

AnthonyClintonDimitriEthanJoeKareemKeithMalcolmMichaelShadTyler
Alexis12.1%8.5%5.8%9.0%5.9%8.5%18.6%11.0%8.2%6.3%6.0%
Alivia12.1%8.5%5.8%9.0%5.9%18.6%8.5%11.0%8.2%6.3%6.0%
Audrey7.7%5.8%2.1%6.3%X5.8%5.8%7.1%5.7%51.2%2.5%
Diandra0.5%6.3%51.2%6.9%2.9%6.3%6.3%7.8%6.2%2.9%2.5%
GelesX12.1%7.7%13.2%7.9%12.1%12.1%14.8%11.8%0.5%7.9%
Jada11.8%8.2%5.7%21.5%5.8%8.2%8.2%10.7%7.9%6.2%5.8%
Keyana13.2%9.0%6.3%X6.5%9.0%9.0%12.0%21.5%6.9%6.5%
Nicole7.9%5.9%X6.5%2.5%5.9%5.9%7.3%5.8%2.9%49.3%
Nurys14.8%11.0%7.1%12.0%7.3%11.0%11.0%X10.7%7.8%7.4%
Uche12.1%18.6%5.8%9.0%5.9%8.5%8.5%11.0%8.2%6.3%6.0%
Zoe7.9%6.0%2.5%6.5%49.3%6.0%6.0%7.4%5.8%2.5%X

10:07: "She just murdered someone" WHAT!??

10:11: Geles sneaks off with Anthony for sex even though Ethan wants her.

Matchup Ceremony #3
  • Malcolm - Geles
  • Michael - Audrey
  • Joe - Zoe (repeat from ceremony 1)
  • Kareem - Alivia (repeat from ceremonies 1 and 2)
  • Tyler - Nicole (repeat from ceremony 1)
  • Shad - Keyana
  • Ethan - Alexis
  • Clinton - Uche (repeat from ceremonies 1 and 2)
  • Anthony - Jada
  • Keith - Diandra
  • Dimitri - Nurys (I seem to have missed the order on this one)
Blackout odds: 8.3% (27,313 of 328,840)
Instant win possible: No, more than 3 couples from ceremony 1 were repeated
Most likely number of lights: 2

2 matches leaves 105,376 combinations.
AnthonyClintonDimitriEthanJoeKareemKeithMalcolmMichaelShadTyler
Alexis13.0%8.6%7.1%6.4%5.7%8.6%17.3%11.4%9.2%7.3%5.5%
Alivia11.8%8.2%6.4%9.2%5.1%20.3%8.5%10.5%8.1%6.9%4.9%
Audrey8.7%6.4%2.2%7.7%X6.4%6.5%7.8%4.0%47.3%2.9%
Diandra1.0%7.0%46.6%8.6%3.5%7.0%4.5%8.8%6.8%3.1%3.0%
GelesX11.6%8.6%14.0%7.0%11.6%12.6%14.9%12.0%1.0%6.8%
Jada10.5%8.1%6.7%19.4%5.5%8.1%9.2%11.0%9.0%7.3%5.3%
Keyana14.3%9.0%7.0%X6.3%9.0%10.0%12.5%20.7%5.0%6.2%
Nicole7.2%5.1%X6.4%1.2%5.1%5.7%6.4%5.5%3.4%54.0%
Nurys14.9%10.7%6.1%13.0%6.6%10.7%11.5%X11.1%8.8%6.5%
Uche11.8%20.3%6.4%9.2%5.1%8.2%8.5%10.5%8.1%6.9%4.9%
Zoe6.9%4.9%2.9%6.2%54.1%4.9%5.6%6.2%5.4%3.0%X


10:36: Diandra leaving Malcolm with an ultimatum. He seems conflicted.

10:40: The house is hoping to get the two three-peats into the truth booth. Little do they know they're not the highest probability couples!

10:43: Malcolm thinking the real Batman is Ben Affleck is insane.

10:44: Kareem and Alivia get knocked out. It comes down to this... is Clinton Team Bieber or Team Selena Gomez? Uche guesses Selena... and fails!

10:45: The couples advancing to the date are Nicole-Dimitri (inferred no match), Geles-Ethan (14.0%), and Zoe-Keith (5.6%).

11:01: Malcolm not happy with Nurys playing with the rest of the house... he explodes and Diandra takes advantage. Total love triangle right now, each taking what they can get.

Wednesday, October 4, 2017

Season 6, Episode 3 Probabilities - Live Blog

We're starting with a truth booth tonight!

Truth Booth #2

10:03: And starting with a no match between Anthony and Geles! 1,661,296 combinations remain.

AnthonyClintonDimitriEthanJoeKareemKeithMalcolmMichaelShadTyler
Alexis10.0%6.7%6.7%7.1%6.7%6.7%29.5%6.7%6.5%6.7%6.7%
Alivia10.0%6.7%6.7%7.1%6.7%29.5%6.7%6.7%6.5%6.7%6.7%
Audrey10.0%6.7%6.7%7.1%6.7%6.7%6.7%6.7%6.5%29.5%6.7%
Diandra10.0%6.7%29.5%7.1%6.7%6.7%6.7%6.7%6.5%6.7%6.7%
GelesX10.0%10.0%10.7%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%9.7%10.0%10.0%
Jada9.7%6.5%6.5%32.1%6.5%6.5%6.5%6.5%6.2%6.5%6.5%
Keyana10.7%7.1%7.1%X7.1%7.1%7.1%7.1%32.1%7.1%7.1%
Nicole10.0%6.7%6.7%7.1%6.7%6.7%6.7%6.7%6.5%6.7%29.5%
Nurys10.0%6.7%6.7%7.1%6.7%6.7%6.7%29.5%6.5%6.7%6.7%
Uche10.0%29.5%6.7%7.1%6.7%6.7%6.7%6.7%6.5%6.7%6.7%
Zoe10.0%6.7%6.7%7.1%29.5%6.7%6.7%6.7%6.5%6.7%6.7%
(note: it seems like Anthony's numbers are off here, but it's just a rounding issue)

10:06: Keyana is closing in.

10:09: Ethan fired up the house!!

10:16: Michael is tired but Keyana can't handle him taking a nap without her.

10:18: Keyana doesn't have much self worth. Sad.

Matchup Ceremony #2

10:23: Never had a matchup ceremony this early in the episode before.

10:26: Keyana picks Michael anyway!

10:27: Ethan frustrated with so many repeats. In past seasons, it may have made sense to repeat fewer couples, but the blackout rule makes sense to try to avoid it...
  • Alivia - Kareem (repeat from ceremony 1)
  • Alexis - Keith (repeat from ceremony 1)
  • Uche - Clinton (repeat from ceremony 1)
  • Zoe - Tyler
  • Keyana - Michael (repeat from ceremony 1)
  • Jada - Ethan (repeat from ceremony 1)
  • Nurys - Malcolm (repeat from ceremony 1)
  • Nicole - Dimitri
  • Diandra - Anthony
  • Audrey - Joe
  • Geles - Shad
Blackout odds: 2.8% (47,342 of 1,661,296)
Instant win possible: No, more than 3 couples from ceremony 1 were repeated
Most likely number of lights: 2

10:34: 1 beam leaves 390,046 possibilities.

AnthonyClintonDimitriEthanJoeKareemKeithMalcolmMichaelShadTyler
Alexis12.5%9.3%6.0%10.1%6.2%9.3%15.7%9.3%9.0%6.6%6.2%
Alivia12.5%9.3%6.0%10.1%6.2%15.7%9.3%9.3%9.0%6.6%6.2%
Audrey7.7%6.0%2.1%6.6%X6.0%6.0%6.0%5.9%51.2%2.5%
Diandra0.5%6.6%51.2%7.3%2.9%6.6%6.6%6.6%6.5%2.9%2.5%
GelesX12.5%7.7%13.9%7.8%12.5%12.5%12.5%12.3%0.5%7.9%
Jada12.3%9.0%5.9%18.2%6.1%9.0%9.0%9.0%8.9%6.5%6.1%
Keyana13.9%10.1%6.6%X6.8%10.1%10.1%10.1%18.2%7.3%6.9%
Nicole7.8%6.2%X6.8%2.5%6.2%6.2%6.2%6.1%2.9%49.2%
Nurys12.5%9.3%6.0%10.1%6.2%9.3%9.3%15.7%9.0%6.6%6.2%
Uche12.5%15.7%6.0%10.1%6.2%9.3%9.3%9.3%9.0%6.6%6.2%
Zoe7.9%6.2%2.5%6.9%49.2%6.2%6.2%6.2%6.1%2.5%X

10:36: 1 beam is a pretty good outcome as it tells them that the following couples are very high probability of perfect matches: Joe - Zoe, Shad - Audrey, Tyler - Nicole, Dimitri - Diandra. It also eliminates three of this week's couples as inferred no matches: Dimitri - Nicole, Joe - Audrey, and Tyler - Zoe. The second ceremony is the earliest we've ever had inferred no matches!

Explaining the logic here...

If Joe and Audrey were a perfect match, that means that none of the 6 repeaters are a perfect match, and that 3 of the non-repeaters from Ceremony 1 are a match. However, there are only 4 non-repeaters from Ceremony 1 after Anthony and Geles went into the Truth Booth, and two of those couples include Joe and Audrey separately. Same for the other two couples.


10:41: Michael is gunning for Audrey, who is his worst possible pairing.

10:43: The eggs start slipping and dropping. Pretty dramatic elimination of couples.

10:44: The couples going on the date are... Ethan and Geles (13.9%), Malcolm and Nurys (15.7%), Michael and Audrey (5.9%). Malcolm and Nurys would be the most straight-forward pick - both the highest probability of a match, and a match would make it obvious that the repeaters from the second ceremony are no matches.

10:47: Diandra's still very hopeful, but Malcolm and Nurys got LUH.

10:51: Swamp date with alligators! Hawaii and the Dominican got nothing on this.

11:00: Malcolm and Nurys to the Truth Booth... and that's where we'll pick up next week.