Season 4, Episode 6 Probabilities - Live Blog

Welcome back Nicole! We're down to 21 combinations. Let's get to it.

10:01 - Oh man, they are going to throw a challenge to get Sam and Alyssa in the truth booth! Now we're talking!

10:04 - The moms are here! (via screen) Some of these guys looks pretty nervous about this.

10:05 - Looks like this is going to be a hard challenge to throw... It's like a camera crew caught their conversation planning to let Sam and Alyssa win... oh wait

10:07 - I was hoping these moms would have more dirt on their sons. Alright, Emma secures getaway date #1... my guess is she picks John (19%).

10:14 - Alyssa wins the 2nd getaway date and picks Sam (85.7%).

10:16 - Camille thinks Asaf is a great guy??? Oye vey...and she admits to being super desperate

10:18 - Gio thinks Julia is his match (28.6%), but is all over Asaf's sloppy seconds with Francesca (19%)

10:19 - PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT: Gio is not about foreplay. Ladies, I repeat, Gio is not about foreplay

10:25 - Emma and John are being all flirty even though she does have the same "features" as Julia

10:28 - Sam and Alyssa are off to the Truth Booth...this seems like a slam dunk.

Truth Booth

Alyssa and Sam... perfect match!

	Asaf	Cam	Cameron	Giovanni	John	Morgan	Prosper	Sam	Stephen	Tyler
Alyssa	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X
Camille	94.4%	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	5.6%
Emma	X	11.1%	X	5.6%	22.2%	5.6%	27.8%	X	11.1%	16.7%
Francesca	X	11.1%	X	22.2%	16.7%	22.2%	5.6%	X	X	22.2%
Julia	X	22.2%	X	33.3%	X	16.7%	11.1%	X	11.1%	5.6%
Kaylen	5.6%	16.7%	X	X	16.7%	5.6%	16.7%	X	16.7%	22.2%
Mikala	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Nicole	X	5.6%	X	5.6%	22.2%	22.2%	27.8%	X	16.7%	X
Tori	X	11.1%	X	16.7%	5.6%	16.7%	X	X	27.8%	22.2%
Victoria	X	22.2%	X	16.7%	16.7%	11.1%	11.1%	X	16.7%	5.6%

18 possible combinations remain.

10:33 - Asaf is such a good friend by giving Sam the boom boom room

10:34 - Tori is really good at getting to know these guys.

10:35 - Gio is the smartest guy in the house??? #respectthetruealpha

10:41 - Sam ready to make a baby.

10:48 - HOLD UP - Kaylen is going to tell Francesca what's up

10:54 - Asaf plays by his own rules and chooses with his heart (and just his heart... nothing else)

Matchup Ceremony

• John - Emma (repeat from episode 1)
• Cam - Victoria (repeat from episode 1)
• Morgan - Tori (repeat from episode 4)
• Stephen - Julia (repeat from episode 4)
• Giovanni - Francesca (repeat from episode 5)
• Prosper - Kaylen
• Tyler - Nicole (inferred no match)
• Asaf - Camille (repeat from episodes 4, 5)

Blackout odds: 0% (Each of the 18 remaining combinations contain at least one of the matches above).
Instant win possible: No, as Tyler and Nicole are not a match
Maximum possible number of lights: 7
Most likely number of lights: 4

4 perfect matches leave just 8 possibilities, but no new matches.

	Asaf	Cam	Cameron	Giovanni	John	Morgan	Prosper	Sam	Stephen	Tyler
Alyssa	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X
Camille	87.5%	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	12.5%
Emma	X	12.5%	X	12.5%	37.5%	12.5%	25.0%	X	X	X
Francesca	X	12.5%	X	12.5%	12.5%	37.5%	X	X	X	25.0%
Julia	X	25.0%	X	62.5%	X	X	X	X	12.5%	X
Kaylen	12.5%	25.0%	X	X	X	X	12.5%	X	12.5%	37.5%
Mikala	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Nicole	X	X	X	X	25.0%	25.0%	37.5%	X	12.5%	X
Tori	X	X	X	12.5%	12.5%	12.5%	X	X	37.5%	25.0%
Victoria	X	25.0%	X	X	12.5%	12.5%	25.0%	X	25.0%	X

Here they are:

1. Camille - Tyler, Emma - Prosper, Francesca - Giovanni, Julia - Cam, Kaylen - Asaf, Nicole - Stephen, Tori - Morgan, Victoria - John
2. Camille - Asaf, Emma - Morgan, Francesca - John, Julia - Giovanni, Kaylen - Tyler, Nicole - Prosper, Tori - Stephen, Victoria - Cam
3. Camille - Asaf, Emma - Prosper, Francesca - Tyler, Julia - Giovanni, Kaylen - Stephen, Nicole - Morgan, Tori - John, Victoria - Cam
4. Camille - Asaf, Emma - John, Francesca - Tyler, Julia - Giovanni, Kaylen - Cam, Nicole - Morgan, Tori - Stephen, Victoria - Prosper
5. Camille - Asaf, Emma - Giovanni, Francesca - Morgan, Julia - Stephen, Kaylen - Cam, Nicole - John, Tori - Tyler, Victoria - Prosper
6. Camille - Asaf, Emma - John, Francesca - Cam, Julia - Giovanni, Kaylen - Tyler, Nicole - Prosper, Tori - Stephen, Victoria - Morgan
7. Camille - Asaf, Emma - Cam, Francesca - Morgan, Julia - Giovanni, Kaylen - Prosper, Nicole - John, Tori - Tyler, Victoria - Stephen
8. Camille - Asaf, Emma - John, Francesca - Morgan, Julia - Cam, Kaylen - Tyler, Nicole - Prosper, Tori - Giovanni, Victoria - Stephen

Season 4, Episode 5 Probabilities - Live Blog

Please welcome back guest blogger Nicole!

Quick recap of last week:

• The group still only has 1 confirmed perfect match
• We've confirmed Asaf is a d-bag
• Gio is no longer ring shopping for Kaylen
• Every dude loves Julia
• There were 4 beams of light at the last match up ceremony

10:02 - Stephen is clearly over Gio's drama.

10:03 - Tori and Morgan (19.6%) are my heroes for their little late night make over for John

10:05 - I wonder what Julia considers "cheesy."

10:06 - Challenge time!!! Ryan is busting out the beer goggles... which are probably necessary since these kids probably don't know how to operate sober.

10:08 - Finishing order is Stephen, Prosper, Gio, and Morgan....but it's all about how many you got right.

10:13 - Prosper and Gio advance. Prosper picks Nicole (18.7%) and Gio brings Kaylen (66.7%). I WONDER WHO THE GROUP WILL VOTE IN?!?!?!?!

10:14 - Morgan is licking whipped cream off Tori's foot. Somewhat disturbing and gross.

10:15 - Victoria says she is excited to have Cam (10.5%) be aggressive, but she doesn't look that excited.

10:21 - Cam has "no idea" that Victoria and him hooked up. How does one not remember that? Come on now.

10:23 - This date looks AMAZING.

10:25 -  Kaylen is speaking some real truth right now and OMG THEY ONLY HAVE KNOWN EACH OTHER FOR A WEEK AND A HALF?!?!?!?!

10:26 - Gio is convinced that Julia is his match, but odds are not in their favor.

Truth Booth

10:28 - Gio and Kaylen to the Truth Booth....shocking. Kaylen is clearly elated to be there; Gio not so much.

10:32 - THEY AREN'T A MATCH!!!! Woah. Kaylen is taking this MUCH better than I would have thought. This leaves 73 combinations. Most notably, Alyssa-Sam and Camille-Asaf are extremely likely at this point. Could have an inferred perfect match later in the episode...

	Asaf	Cam	Cameron	Giovanni	John	Morgan	Prosper	Sam	Stephen	Tyler
Alyssa	X	1.4%	X	2.7%	X	X	X	95.9%	X	X
Camille	80.8%	X	X	5.5%	X	2.7%	5.5%	X	1.4%	4.1%
Emma	1.4%	12.3%	X	15.1%	15.1%	9.6%	32.9%	X	5.5%	8.2%
Francesca	11.0%	5.5%	X	9.6%	13.7%	16.4%	12.3%	X	6.8%	24.7%
Julia	X	32.9%	X	20.5%	X	15.1%	9.6%	X	17.8%	4.1%
Kaylen	5.5%	13.7%	X	X	19.2%	13.7%	15.1%	2.7%	16.4%	13.7%
Mikala	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Nicole	1.4%	6.8%	X	20.5%	11.0%	16.4%	17.8%	X	15.1%	11.0%
Tori	X	6.8%	X	13.7%	8.2%	17.8%	X	1.4%	30.1%	21.9%
Victoria	X	20.5%	X	12.3%	32.9%	8.2%	6.8%	X	6.8%	12.3%

10:33 - And what are the odds of Gio having a threesome? I can confidently say 0%.

10:35 - Within 2 minutes, Gio has successfully turned off Kaylen, Camille, Francesca, and Tori. That leaves him with 5 girls for that threesome.

10:39 - Tori is taking the reins here on devising a strategy...not sure if I agree with it, but at least it's a plan

10:40 - Guys, words are super cool

10:45 - Victoria picks Prosper... which messes up the plan Tori tried to put in place and then Prosper proceeds to crush Nicole's heart.

10:54 - Gio continues his mission to turn off every single girl in the house by commenting on Camille's nipples. Good work, dude.

Matchup Ceremony

• Emma - Cam (repeat from episode 4)
• Victoria - Prosper
• Kaylen - Tyler
• Nicole - Stephen (repeat from episode 1)
• Camille - Asaf (repeat from episode 4)
• Alyssa - Sam (repeat from episodes 1, 3, 4)
• Julia - Morgan (repeat from episode 1)
• Tori - John
• Francesca - Giovanni

Blackout odds: 0% (Each of the 73 remaining combinations contain at least one of the matches above).
Instant win possible: No, as they could only repeat 2 matchups from episode 1.
Maximum possible number of lights: 7
Most likely number of lights: 3

10:56 - Keeping Alyssa and Sam together is the big reason they're guaranteed not to blackout.

4 lights means 21 combinations remain.

	Asaf	Cam	Cameron	Giovanni	John	Morgan	Prosper	Sam	Stephen	Tyler
Alyssa	X	4.8%	X	9.5%	X	X	X	85.7%	X	X
Camille	95.2%	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	4.8%
Emma	X	9.5%	X	4.8%	19.0%	4.8%	38.1%	X	9.5%	14.3%
Francesca	X	9.5%	X	19.0%	14.3%	19.0%	4.8%	X	X	33.3%
Julia	X	19.0%	X	28.6%	X	28.6%	9.5%	X	9.5%	4.8%
Kaylen	4.8%	19.0%	X	X	14.3%	4.8%	14.3%	9.5%	14.3%	19.0%
Mikala	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Nicole	X	4.8%	X	4.8%	19.0%	19.0%	23.8%	X	28.6%	X
Tori	X	14.3%	X	19.0%	4.8%	14.3%	X	4.8%	23.8%	19.0%
Victoria	X	19.0%	X	14.3%	28.6%	9.5%	9.5%	X	14.3%	4.8%

Those 21 combinations below the jump...

Season 4, Episode 4 Probabilities - Live Blog

Due to technical difficulties on my end, please welcome my friend Nicole who did the guest blog this week!

10:03 - ooooo Gio is in TROUBLE...the Kaylen/Gio honeymoon is over. Guys, here is the lesson: if you're in a committed relationship of 3 days, don't throw pie at other girls

10:07 - Gio decides Making up in the boom boom room is the best thing...good call...

10:08 - What girl wouldn't like a guy that eats food off her butt? That's a real man

POOPED HIS PANTS TWICE IN THE PAST 5 YEARS!!!  WHAT?!?!?! ARE YOU KIDDING ME???

10:10 - These guys are gross.  So, so gross.

Challenge winners is Emma! She gets to pick the dates? Interesting...
Emma goes with Stephen...he pooped his pants (twice) and only a 7.2%
She chooses Morgan for Julia. Morgan's pumped (actually the best choice at 18.5%)
Tori and Asaf...not shocking. Probably not a match (only 9.1%)

10:18 - Boys night...Gio is in trouble and confused about his ENTIRE life right now.

10:20 - Trojan product placement...nicely done.


10:26 - Oh Tori, Tori, Tori...you are going to be so sad when he tells you he did Francesca (sponsored by Trojan)

10:27 - ....and Tori is upset. Not shocking. It's OK, Tori he won't be your match.

10:30 - Ryan rubbing salt into Kaylen's wounds by checking in with the house's 'Solid couple.' Burnnnnnn

10:30 - But Kaylen and Gio have taken a sudden turn for the worse!

10:33 - Asaf and Tori are off to the truth booth....

Truth Booth

10:36: NOT A MATCH!! This leaves 1,153 possible combinations.

	Asaf	Cam	Cameron	Giovanni	John	Morgan	Prosper	Sam	Stephen	Tyler
Alyssa	8.6%	9.1%	X	3.8%	10.2%	4.2%	8.6%	38.2%	7.2%	10.0%
Camille	33.4%	8.4%	X	5.2%	9.3%	8.7%	11.7%	7.8%	6.7%	8.8%
Emma	8.3%	7.6%	X	4.2%	14.1%	8.9%	34.4%	7.5%	6.5%	8.3%
Francesca	16.2%	10.6%	X	5.4%	12.7%	23.3%	10.6%	3.3%	8.0%	9.9%
Julia	10.6%	9.4%	X	6.6%	X	18.5%	11.6%	10.6%	9.9%	22.9%
Kaylen	4.7%	5.4%	X	59.4%	6.9%	5.0%	5.0%	4.1%	3.8%	5.6%
Mikala	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Nicole	8.9%	23.0%	X	5.7%	8.7%	11.4%	9.3%	9.5%	10.9%	12.6%
Tori	X	9.9%	X	4.4%	12.2%	9.7%	X	10.0%	39.5%	14.2%
Victoria	9.3%	16.7%	X	5.3%	25.8%	10.1%	8.8%	9.0%	7.5%	7.6%

10:38 - Stephen is all about Julia.  Julia, look out, he pooped his pants....twice

10:40 - Gio is all about Julia (6.6%), not Kaylen (59.4%)

10:44 - Since when are bralettes a replacement for a shirt??

Matchup Ceremony

• Morgan - Tori
• Prosper - Nicole
• Asaf - Camille (repeat from episodes 2 and 3)
• John - Victoria (repeat from episode 3)
• Giovanni - Kaylen (repeat from episodes 1-3)
• Stephen - Julia
• Tyler - Francesca
• Sam - Alyssa (repeat from episodes 1 and 3)
• Cam - Emma

Blackout odds: 2.8% (32 possible blackout combinations of 1,153 remaining).
Instant win possible: No, as they could only repeat 2 matchups from episode 2
Maximum possible number of lights: 8, which would reveal the winning combination.
Most likely number of lights: 3

4 lights mean 219 combinations remain.

	Asaf	Cam	Cameron	Giovanni	John	Morgan	Prosper	Sam	Stephen	Tyler
Alyssa	5.0%	10.0%	X	0.9%	5.0%	2.7%	9.1%	49.8%	6.8%	10.5%
Camille	53.9%	6.8%	X	1.8%	3.7%	7.8%	5.9%	6.4%	4.6%	9.1%
Emma	7.3%	14.2%	X	5.0%	11.9%	9.6%	24.2%	7.3%	12.3%	8.2%
Francesca	13.2%	13.2%	X	3.2%	13.7%	15.1%	14.2%	2.3%	7.8%	17.4%
Julia	8.7%	13.7%	X	6.8%	X	15.5%	13.7%	9.1%	19.2%	13.2%
Kaylen	1.8%	4.6%	X	66.7%	6.4%	4.6%	5.0%	0.9%	5.5%	4.6%
Mikala	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Nicole	5.9%	13.2%	X	6.8%	5.9%	14.6%	18.7%	9.6%	11.0%	14.2%
Tori	X	13.7%	X	4.6%	12.8%	19.6%	X	10.5%	23.3%	15.5%
Victoria	4.1%	10.5%	X	4.1%	40.6%	10.5%	9.1%	4.1%	9.6%	7.3%