Season 3 Finale (Episodes 9 and 10) Probabilities - Live Blog

10:00: Let's go!

10:04: Bad matchup as we know Mike is a match with neither Kayla nor Amanda.

10:05: Attempting to fix the getaway competition is the best thing they've done so far this season.

10:07: Uh oh...

10:08: Zak-Hannah (26.1%), Hunter-Britni (34.8%), and Austin-Kayla (30.4%) are our couples advancing to the getaway challenge. Honestly, not a bad choice. All those couples are fairly high probability. Not as good as Alec and Stacey.

10:20: This got crazy quick.

Truth Booth

10:45: Hunter and Britni go into the Truth Booth... and no match. That leaves 15 combinations.

	Alec	Austin	Chuck	Connor	Devin	Hunter	Mike	Nelson	Tyler	Zak
Amanda	6.7%	6.7%	13.3%	X	6.7%	26.7%	X	26.7%	X	13.3%
Britni	6.7%	13.3%	X	X	26.7%	X	X	40.0%	13.3%	X
Chelsey	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X
Cheyenne	X	20.0%	6.7%	X	X	6.7%	6.7%	X	40.0%	20.0%
Hannah	6.7%	X	X	X	X	40.0%	20.0%	13.3%	X	20.0%
Kayla	X	33.3%	X	X	6.7%	13.3%	X	X	6.7%	40.0%
Kiki	20.0%	X	X	X	X	X	46.7%	X	33.3%	X
Melanie	X	13.3%	53.3%	X	X	X	6.7%	13.3%	6.7%	6.7%
Rashida	X	X	6.7%	X	60.0%	13.3%	20.0%	X	X	X
Stacey	60.0%	13.3%	20.0%	X	X	X	X	6.7%	X	X

1. Amanda - Hunter, Britni - Nelson, Cheyenne - Chuck, Hannah - Mike, Kayla - Austin, Kiki - Tyler, Melanie - Zak, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Alec
2. Amanda - Chuck, Britni - Devin, Cheyenne - Zak, Hannah - Hunter, Kayla - Austin, Kiki - Tyler, Melanie - Nelson, Rashida - Mike, Stacey - Alec
3. Amanda - Nelson, Britni - Devin, Cheyenne - Austin, Hannah - Zak, Kayla - Hunter, Kiki - Mike, Melanie - Tyler, Rashida - Chuck, Stacey - Alec
4. Amanda - Devin, Britni - Nelson, Cheyenne - Austin, Hannah - Zak, Kayla - Hunter, Kiki - Tyler, Melanie - Chuck, Rashida - Mike, Stacey - Alec
5. Amanda - Nelson, Britni - Tyler, Cheyenne - Austin, Hannah - Zak, Kayla - Devin, Kiki - Mike, Melanie - Chuck, Rashida - Hunter, Stacey - Alec
6. Amanda - Zak, Britni - Nelson, Cheyenne - Mike, Hannah - Hunter, Kayla - Austin, Kiki - Tyler, Melanie - Chuck, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Alec
7. Amanda - Zak, Britni - Nelson, Cheyenne - Hunter, Hannah - Mike, Kayla - Austin, Kiki - Tyler, Melanie - Chuck, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Alec
8. Amanda - Nelson, Britni - Tyler, Cheyenne - Zak, Hannah - Hunter, Kayla - Austin, Kiki - Mike, Melanie - Chuck, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Alec
9. Amanda - Hunter, Britni - Austin, Cheyenne - Zak, Hannah - Nelson, Kayla - Tyler, Kiki - Mike, Melanie - Chuck, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Alec
10. Amanda - Austin, Britni - Devin, Cheyenne - Tyler, Hannah - Nelson, Kayla - Zak, Kiki - Alec, Melanie - Mike, Rashida - Hunter, Stacey - Chuck
11. Amanda - Chuck, Britni - Devin, Cheyenne - Tyler, Hannah - Hunter, Kayla - Zak, Kiki - Alec, Melanie - Nelson, Rashida - Mike, Stacey - Austin
12. Amanda - Nelson, Britni - Alec, Cheyenne - Tyler, Hannah - Hunter, Kayla - Zak, Kiki - Mike, Melanie - Chuck, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Austin
13. Amanda - Hunter, Britni - Nelson, Cheyenne - Tyler, Hannah - Mike, Kayla - Zak, Kiki - Alec, Melanie - Austin, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Chuck
14. Amanda - Hunter, Britni - Nelson, Cheyenne - Tyler, Hannah - Alec, Kayla - Zak, Kiki - Mike, Melanie - Austin, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Chuck
15. Amanda - Alec, Britni - Austin, Cheyenne - Tyler, Hannah - Hunter, Kayla - Zak, Kiki - Mike, Melanie - Chuck, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Nelson

10:45: Not totally clear to me what Devin means with all of the cups. Seems like at some times he's counting Chelsey and Connor and sometimes she's not.

10:55: If they win, it will be the biggest comeback ever... but, also, probably rigged? Would be very surprising.

Matchup Ceremony

• Kayla - Hunter
• Cheyenne - Austin (repeat from episode 6)
• Stacey - Alec (repeat from episodes 1, 3, 5, 6, and 8)
• Britni - Devin
• Hannah - Zak (repeat from episodes 3, 7, 8)
• Melanie - Tyler
• Kiki - Mike
• Amanda - Nelson
• Rashida - Chuck

There's a 1 in 15 (6.7%) chance that they blackout here - and an equal 6.7% chance that they win the game here. This is the same as combo 3 above and combo 5 from last week. Like last week - a blackout would tell them the exact correct combination.

Wow... only 2 correct. Worst possible combination as it leaves 7 potential possibilities.

	Alec	Austin	Chuck	Connor	Devin	Hunter	Mike	Nelson	Tyler	Zak
Amanda	14.3%	14.3%	14.3%	X	X	28.6%	X	X	X	28.6%
Britni	X	14.3%	X	X	28.6%	X	X	57.1%	X	X
Chelsey	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X
Cheyenne	X	X	14.3%	X	X	14.3%	14.3%	X	57.1%	X
Hannah	14.3%	X	X	X	X	42.9%	28.6%	14.3%	X	X
Kayla	X	42.9%	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	57.1%
Kiki	28.6%	X	X	X	X	X	28.6%	X	42.9%	X
Melanie	X	14.3%	42.9%	X	X	X	14.3%	14.3%	X	14.3%
Rashida	X	X	X	X	71.4%	14.3%	14.3%	X	X	X
Stacey	42.9%	14.3%	28.6%	X	X	X	X	14.3%	X	X

1. Amanda - Hunter, Britni - Nelson, Cheyenne - Chuck, Hannah - Mike, Kayla - Austin, Kiki - Tyler, Melanie - Zak, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Alec
2. Amanda - Zak, Britni - Nelson, Cheyenne - Mike, Hannah - Hunter, Kayla - Austin, Kiki - Tyler, Melanie - Chuck, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Alec
3. Amanda - Zak, Britni - Nelson, Cheyenne - Hunter, Hannah - Mike, Kayla - Austin, Kiki - Tyler, Melanie - Chuck, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Alec
4. Amanda - Austin, Britni - Devin, Cheyenne - Tyler, Hannah - Nelson, Kayla - Zak, Kiki - Alec, Melanie - Mike, Rashida - Hunter, Stacey - Chuck
5. Amanda - Chuck, Britni - Devin, Cheyenne - Tyler, Hannah - Hunter, Kayla - Zak, Kiki - Alec, Melanie - Nelson, Rashida - Mike, Stacey - Austin
6. Amanda - Hunter, Britni - Nelson, Cheyenne - Tyler, Hannah - Alec, Kayla - Zak, Kiki - Mike, Melanie - Austin, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Chuck
7. Amanda - Alec, Britni - Austin, Cheyenne - Tyler, Hannah - Hunter, Kayla - Zak, Kiki - Mike, Melanie - Chuck, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Nelson

How can you guess here???? You HAVE to repeat one couple from this week... but which one? You've got an 88% chance of getting it wrong on the first guess!

Notable confirmed non-match here is Zak and Hannah.

11:02: Dude on dude violence is OK?

11:03: Devin can be the funniest. And he at least seems open to criticism.

11:05: If they pick any of the couples with 14.3% or 71.4% chance, we'll have a chance to know the exact combination going into the Matchup Ceremony. If they don't, it's a guaranteed gamble.

11:08: Melanie and Rashida offered Chuck a threesome?

11:09: Zak-Kayla is the second-most-likely to be a perfect match in the truth booth (57.1%). Devin-Rashida (71.4%), and Hannah-Nelson (14.3%) make the challenge. But wait - Melanie-Tyler (confirmed no match) bump out Hannah and Nelson.

Devin and Rashida are the best possible couple to choose for the Truth Booth. Get it right and it's a match - get it wrong and they know the perfect 10.

11:25: Confirmed that we will NOT know the correct combination going into the Matchup Ceremony.

Will MTV tell us who the perfect matches are if they don't get it right?

Yes

No

Poll Maker

Truth Booth

It's Zak and Kayla. No match here tells us a lot: Kayla's match is Austin, Rashida's match is Devin, and Stacey's match is Alec, Kiki-Tyler, and Britni-Nelson. Perfect match means Cheyenne and Tyler are also a perfect match.

Perfect match!

1. Amanda - Austin, Britni - Devin, Hannah - Nelson, Kiki - Alec, Melanie - Mike, Rashida - Hunter, Stacey - Chuck
2. Amanda - Chuck, Britni - Devin, Hannah - Hunter, Kiki - Alec, Melanie - Nelson, Rashida - Mike, Stacey - Austin
3. Amanda - Hunter, Britni - Nelson, Hannah - Alec, Kiki - Mike, Melanie - Austin, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Chuck
4. Amanda - Alec, Britni - Austin, Hannah - Hunter, Kiki - Mike, Melanie - Chuck, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Nelson

Notable here - Alec and Stacey are NOT a perfect match.

What's the winning combination?

Amanda - Austin, Britni - Devin, Hannah - Nelson, Kiki - Alec, Melanie - Mike, Rashida - Hunter, Stacey - Chuck

Amanda - Chuck, Britni - Devin, Hannah - Hunter, Kiki - Alec, Melanie - Nelson, Rashida - Mike, Stacey - Austin

Amanda - Hunter, Britni - Nelson, Hannah - Alec, Kiki - Mike, Melanie - Austin, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Chuck

Amanda - Alec, Britni - Austin, Hannah - Hunter, Kiki - Mike, Melanie - Chuck, Rashida - Devin, Stacey - Nelson

Poll Maker

11:33: They're on the right track with Tyler and Cheyenne, but Alec and Amanda is only a 25% chance of being right.

11:34: Slow motion coin flip.

If they win here... do you think the show is rigged?

Yes

No

Quiz Maker

5 beams means they win.

Matchup Ceremony

• Austin - Britni
• Hunter - Hannah
• Devin - Rashida (repeat from episodes 3, 6, and 8)
• Tyler - Cheyenne (confirmed perfect match, repeat from episodes 3, 7, and 8)
• Alec - Amanda (repeat from episode 4)
• Nelson - Stacey
• Chuck - Melanie (repeat from episode 7)
• Mike - Kiki (repeat from episode 9)

As you can tell... this is a potentially winning combination, the same as #4 above. They copied exactly one match from the earlier episode, as they needed.

Final result of Are You The One? Season 3

$750,000 win!

Go home with nothing!

Poll Maker

5 beams means they win.

Good night all, and thanks for tuning in.

Season 3, Episode 8 Probabilities - Live Blog

10:02: Not sure why this episode is called "Sorry Dad."

10:06: This dude is not 45 but of course compared to these people...

10:07: WTF Devin arm strength.

10:16: Our couples are... Hunter - Amanda (12.3%), Nelson - Kiki (30.8%), Austin - Kayla (23.1%). Hunter passes on his top 3 potential matches. Nelson and Austin pick the best available. (edit: sorry, I picked the wrong numbers at first!)

10:29: This is the worst-case scenario for sending the same couple over and over again into the truth booth... Nelson and Kiki going in.

Truth Booth

No match between Nelson and Kiki. He's devastated, she's not. 45 combinations remaining.

	Alec	Austin	Chuck	Connor	Devin	Hunter	Mike	Nelson	Tyler	Zak
Amanda	11.1%	11.1%	20.0%	X	8.9%	17.8%	X	17.8%	4.4%	8.9%
Britni	2.2%	6.7%	X	X	24.4%	37.8%	X	22.2%	6.7%	X
Chelsey	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X
Cheyenne	4.4%	20.0%	11.1%	X	8.9%	8.9%	6.7%	X	15.6%	24.4%
Hannah	6.7%	6.7%	X	X	2.2%	17.8%	11.1%	6.7%	8.9%	40.0%
Kayla	2.2%	33.3%	6.7%	X	11.1%	4.4%	4.4%	11.1%	6.7%	20.0%
Kiki	26.7%	X	X	X	X	X	33.3%	X	40.0%	X
Melanie	X	6.7%	44.4%	X	X	X	15.6%	13.3%	15.6%	4.4%
Rashida	4.4%	8.9%	8.9%	X	35.6%	13.3%	8.9%	17.8%	X	2.2%
Stacey	42.2%	6.7%	8.9%	X	8.9%	X	20.0%	11.1%	2.2%	X

They're going to have to be careful in the matchup ceremony because Kiki has to be picked by one of the three guys here.

10:36: Good that Alec is staying focused on Stacey. They're the most likely couple left.

10:42: Seems ominous that they keep mentioning that Kiki only has three possibilities...

10:45: Alec and Mike passing on Kiki force Tyler's hand... Tyler picking someone else is bad for them because it caps their number of possible correct matches at 8, but it's not the end of the world for him to pick someone else.

Matchup Ceremony

• Mike - Melanie (repeat from episode 6)
• Hunter - Britni (repeat from episodes 1, 3, 6)
• Alec - Stacey (repeat from episodes 1, 3, 5, 6)
• Tyler - Cheyenne (repeat from episodes 3, 7)
• Chuck - Amanda (repeat from episode 6)
• Devin - Rashida (repeat from episodes 3, 6)
• Zak - Hannah (repeat from episodes 3, 7)
• Nelson - Kayla
• Austin - Kiki (confirmed no match)

Odds of blackout are 1 out of 45: 0.2%. BUT... in a twist, if they get a blackout here, we'll actually know the exact set of perfect matches. There's only one possibility with 1 light on.

They get 3 lights, which actually was the worst outcome in terms of eliminating options. There are 23 combinations left, with some inferred non-matches.

	Alec	Austin	Chuck	Connor	Devin	Hunter	Mike	Nelson	Tyler	Zak
Amanda	13.0%	4.3%	13.0%	X	8.7%	17.4%	X	26.1%	8.7%	8.7%
Britni	4.3%	8.7%	X	X	17.4%	34.8%	X	26.1%	8.7%	X
Chelsey	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X
Cheyenne	X	26.1%	4.3%	X	X	4.3%	4.3%	X	26.1%	34.8%
Hannah	8.7%	13.0%	X	X	X	26.1%	17.4%	8.7%	X	26.1%
Kayla	4.3%	30.4%	4.3%	X	13.0%	8.7%	X	X	13.0%	26.1%
Kiki	26.1%	X	X	X	X	X	43.5%	X	30.4%	X
Melanie	X	8.7%	60.9%	X	X	X	4.3%	13.0%	8.7%	4.3%
Rashida	4.3%	X	4.3%	X	56.5%	8.7%	13.0%	13.0%	X	X
Stacey	39.1%	8.7%	13.0%	X	4.3%	X	17.4%	13.0%	4.3%	X

The 23 possibilities left after the jump... pick a number and vote in the comments!

Season 3, Episode 7 Probabilities - Live Blog

10:13: Alec-Melanie (6.5%) and Hunter-Rashida (11.6%) win the challenge!

10:16: Kayla-Mike (12.7%) flirting. Amanda jealous.

10:17: Amanda going crazy. Nelson having none of it.

10:23: Lots of girls getting spun around. Looks like fun.

10:24: Not sure the spin around really works. It all depends on which direction he goes.

Truth Booth

Alec-Melanie: a perfect match would bring it down to 18 combinations left.

No match! 257 combinations remain.

	Alec	Austin	Chuck	Connor	Devin	Hunter	Mike	Nelson	Tyler	Zak
Amanda	12.1%	17.5%	17.5%	X	10.5%	10.1%	X	9.7%	9.7%	12.8%
Britni	2.7%	12.8%	X	X	15.6%	49.4%	X	10.9%	8.6%	X
Chelsey	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X
Cheyenne	5.1%	11.3%	19.5%	X	16.3%	8.2%	10.1%	X	12.8%	16.7%
Hannah	9.7%	12.5%	X	X	8.6%	13.2%	12.8%	10.1%	11.3%	21.8%
Kayla	7.8%	11.7%	17.5%	X	13.6%	7.0%	12.8%	8.6%	8.6%	12.5%
Kiki	19.8%	X	X	X	X	X	32.7%	21.8%	25.7%	X
Melanie	X	13.6%	23.3%	X	X	X	10.9%	20.2%	16.0%	16.0%
Rashida	4.7%	9.7%	12.1%	X	27.2%	12.1%	11.7%	10.9%	X	11.7%
Stacey	38.1%	10.9%	10.1%	X	8.2%	X	8.9%	7.8%	7.4%	8.6%

Alec-Stacey are definitely still in play.

10:34: "Chuck is definitely the fantasy in my head..." says Cheyenne, after revealing that she worked at Chuck E. Cheese a lot.

10:35: The speed dating seems to be working pretty well. Except for Crazy Kiki coming back. The frustrating part is that they keep going with new, low-probability couples instead of testing some of the results they've seen in the past.

10:38: Devin definitely playing it.

I think the safest strategy on the island would end up being to always choose couples from the most successful matchup ceremony for the truth booth.

10:44: Chelsey and Connor are definitely enjoying themselves. They probably are the only ones...

10:46: Rashida starting it off by picking Alec. From a math standpoint, this is one of the worst possible choices - picking the second-lowest combination on the board and removing the second-highest combination off the board.

Matchup Ceremony

• Rashida - Alec
• Kiki - Nelson (repeat from episode 6)
• Amanda - Hunter
• Britni - Devin
• Melanie - Chuck
• Hannah - Zak (repeat from episode 3)
• Stacey - Mike
• Kayla - Austin
• Cheyenne - Tyler (repeat from episode 3)

DANGEROUSLY high odds of a blackout here - 74 of 257 (28.7%) of the possibilities are a blackout! The highest number of matches they can have here is 6.

3 perfect matches leaves 65 combinations.

	Alec	Austin	Chuck	Connor	Devin	Hunter	Mike	Nelson	Tyler	Zak
Amanda	13.8%	20.0%	13.8%	X	16.9%	12.3%	X	12.3%	3.1%	7.7%
Britni	1.5%	10.8%	X	X	23.1%	40.0%	X	15.4%	9.2%	X
Chelsey	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X
Cheyenne	4.6%	13.8%	13.8%	X	13.8%	9.2%	10.8%	X	15.4%	18.5%
Hannah	7.7%	10.8%	X	X	3.1%	15.4%	15.4%	4.6%	6.2%	36.9%
Kayla	1.5%	23.1%	18.5%	X	10.8%	9.2%	7.7%	7.7%	7.7%	13.8%
Kiki	18.5%	X	X	X	X	X	23.1%	30.8%	27.7%	X
Melanie	X	9.2%	36.9%	X	X	X	10.8%	9.2%	23.1%	10.8%
Rashida	6.2%	7.7%	7.7%	X	24.6%	13.8%	16.9%	12.3%	X	10.8%
Stacey	46.2%	4.6%	9.2%	X	7.7%	X	15.4%	7.7%	7.7%	1.5%

The remaining 65 possibilities listed after the jump...