Monday, September 2, 2019

Season 8, Episode 11 Probabilities - Live Blog

After a week off, we join the show waiting to see if there are 3 or 8 beams from Matchup Ceremony #8...

11:06: And... as expected, it's 3 beams. This means there are 8 matchups left with two new perfect matches: Danny and Kai plus Jenna and Paige. That means ten housemates are in perfect matches, and six are not. The bad news for the six: each has 3-5 possible matches left, and none a better than 50% chance. And none of those are Justin and Max.

AashaAmberBasitBrandonDannyJasmineJennaJonathan
AashaXXXMatchXXXX
AmberXXXXXXXX
BasitXXXXXXXMatch
BrandonMatchXXXXXXX
DannyXXXXXXXX
JasmineXXXXXXXX
JennaXXXXXXXX
JonathanXXMatchXXXXX
JustinX12.5%XXXXXX
KaiXXXXMatchXXX
KariX25.0%XXXXXX
KylieX25.0%XXXXXX
MaxX12.5%XXXXXX
NourXXXXXMatchXX
PaigeXXXXXXMatchX
RemyX25.0%XXXXXX
JustinKaiKariKylieMaxNourPaigeRemy
AashaXXXXXXXX
Amber12.5%X25.0%25.0%12.5%XX25.0%
BasitXXXXXXXX
BrandonXXXXXXXX
DannyXMatchXXXXXX
JasmineXXXXXMatchXX
JennaXXXXXXMatchX
JonathanXXXXXXXX
JustinXX37.5%25.0%XXX25.0%
KaiXXXXXXXX
Kari37.5%XXX37.5%XXX
Kylie25.0%XXX25.0%XX25.0%
MaxXX37.5%25.0%XXX25.0%
NourXXXXXXXX
PaigeXXXXXXXX
Remy25.0%XX25.0%25.0%XXX
  1. Amber-Justin Kari-Max Kylie-Remy
  2. Amber-Kari Justin-Kylie Max-Remy
  3. Amber-Kari Justin-Remy Kylie-Max
  4. Amber-Kylie Justin-Kari Max-Remy
  5. Amber-Kylie Justin-Remy Kari-Max
  6. Amber-Max Justin-Kari Kylie-Remy
  7. Amber-Remy Justin-Kari Kylie-Max
  8. Amber-Remy Justin-Kylie Kari-Max

These 8 possibilities are only half of the possible 15 combinations of 6 housemates. The eliminated couplings: Justin - Max, Kari - Kylie, and Kari - Remy.

11:07: Max looked pretty devastated in the confessional, which was a tell. Danny really upset in real-time.

11:08: Justin is ready to cut this off. Doesn't feel like this is going to be a couple that resumes after the show. Justin wants to find his perfect match, but Max isn't ready to move on from his first boyfriend.

11:10: Danny and Kai seem pretty encouraged about their opportunity to figure out why they are a perfect match. (Hi Danny!)

11:20: The first segment before the commercial break was definitely tough - and looks like Terrence J is bringing a different tone for the challenge. The couples have to match answers to questions.

For the challenge, the six picked: Amber - Max (12.5%), Kylie - Remy (25%), Justin - Kari (37.5%).

People feel good about Justin and Kari - they're pretty well aligned and the top couple to send into the Truth Booth.

The date is Danny - Kai, Amber - Max, and Justin - Kari.

Truth Booth #9

11:33: The house picks Amber and Max, mostly out of wanting to give Max a great opportunity. Amber doesn't seem happy about it, but she's going with it. Justin isn't happy either, mostly because he wants Amber!

No match means 7 combinations remain. And instead of making Max happier, his sadness compounds.
AashaAmberBasitBrandonDannyJasmineJennaJonathan
AashaXXXMatchXXXX
AmberXXXXXXXX
BasitXXXXXXXMatch
BrandonMatchXXXXXXX
DannyXXXXXXXX
JasmineXXXXXXXX
JennaXXXXXXXX
JonathanXXMatchXXXXX
JustinX14.3%XXXXXX
KaiXXXXMatchXXX
KariX28.6%XXXXXX
KylieX28.6%XXXXXX
MaxXXXXXXXX
NourXXXXXMatchXX
PaigeXXXXXXMatchX
RemyX28.6%XXXXXX
JustinKaiKariKylieMaxNourPaigeRemy
AashaXXXXXXXX
Amber14.3%X28.6%28.6%XXX28.6%
BasitXXXXXXXX
BrandonXXXXXXXX
DannyXMatchXXXXXX
JasmineXXXXXMatchXX
JennaXXXXXXMatchX
JonathanXXXXXXXX
JustinXX28.6%28.6%XXX28.6%
KaiXXXXXXXX
Kari28.6%XXX42.9%XXX
Kylie28.6%XXX28.6%XX14.3%
MaxXX42.9%28.6%XXX28.6%
NourXXXXXXXX
PaigeXXXXXXXX
Remy28.6%XX14.3%28.6%XXX
  1. Amber-Justin Kari-Max Kylie-Remy
  2. Amber-Kari Justin-Kylie Max-Remy
  3. Amber-Kari Justin-Remy Kylie-Max
  4. Amber-Kylie Justin-Kari Max-Remy
  5. Amber-Kylie Justin-Remy Kari-Max
  6. Amber-Remy Justin-Kari Kylie-Max
  7. Amber-Remy Justin-Kylie Kari-Max
11:39: Danny gets his first pass in the Boom Boom Room, and Kylie launches her campaign for Amber!

11:47: Kari and Max talking about loyalty and they're on the same wavelength. Looks like the house is centering on matchup 5 above. However, it sounds like Justin may not be on board for this... and may want to push for matchup 4 instead. Either way, there would be 3 possible sets of lights - 5, 6, and 8 - with a very high probability of not knowing the matches going into the final matchup ceremony if they don't win.

Matchup Ceremony #9
  • Paige - Jenna (previously inferred perfect match)
  • Amber - Kylie
  • Nour - Jasmine (previously inferred perfect match)
  • Danny - Kai (previously inferred perfect match)
  • Max - Kari
  • Justin - Remy
  • Basit - Jonathan (previously inferred perfect match)
11:55: Danny says he and Kai went with a "take your son to work day" theme!

11:56: Here are the possibilities remaining which each set of beams:
  1. Amber-Justin Kari-Max Kylie-Remy - 6 beams
  2. Amber-Kari Justin-Kylie Max-Remy - 5 beams
  3. Amber-Kari Justin-Remy Kylie-Max - 6 beams
  4. Amber-Kylie Justin-Kari Max-Remy - 6 beams
  5. Amber-Kylie Justin-Remy Kari-Max - win
  6. Amber-Remy Justin-Kari Kylie-Max - 5 beams
  7. Amber-Remy Justin-Kylie Kari-Max - 6 beams

11:59: Justin's hype is corny like Russell Wilson too.

12:03: 6 beams - and Danny knows it, 6 is really bad because that leaves 4 possibilities. And without a successful Truth Booth (or even with a successful Kari and Max one), they'll go into the finale not knowing the right answer.

AashaAmberBasitBrandonDannyJasmineJennaJonathan
AashaXXXMatchXXXX
AmberXXXXXXXX
BasitXXXXXXXMatch
BrandonMatchXXXXXXX
DannyXXXXXXXX
JasmineXXXXXXXX
JennaXXXXXXXX
JonathanXXMatchXXXXX
JustinX25.0%XXXXXX
KaiXXXXMatchXXX
KariX25.0%XXXXXX
KylieX25.0%XXXXXX
MaxXXXXXXXX
NourXXXXXMatchXX
PaigeXXXXXXMatchX
RemyX25.0%XXXXXX
JustinKaiKariKylieMaxNourPaigeRemy
AashaXXXXXXXX
Amber25.0%X25.0%25.0%XXX25.0%
BasitXXXXXXXX
BrandonXXXXXXXX
DannyXMatchXXXXXX
JasmineXXXXXMatchXX
JennaXXXXXXMatchX
JonathanXXXXXXXX
JustinXX25.0%25.0%XXX25.0%
KaiXXXXXXXX
Kari25.0%XXX50.0%XXX
Kylie25.0%XXX25.0%XX25.0%
MaxXX50.0%25.0%XXX25.0%
NourXXXXXXXX
PaigeXXXXXXXX
Remy25.0%XX25.0%25.0%XXX
  1. Amber-Justin Kari-Max Kylie-Remy
  2. Amber-Kari Justin-Remy Kylie-Max
  3. Amber-Kylie Justin-Kari Max-Remy
  4. Amber-Remy Justin-Kylie Kari-Max
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23 comments:

  1. Kdiva9September 2, 2019 at 11:19 PM

    Did Max not know what he signed up for? This "I hope everyones happy" attitude is annoying.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ladypantzSeptember 2, 2019 at 11:43 PM

      Agreed.. He's really bugging me. I get it, feelings. But he's being so self centered. The whole, oh, I hope we are a match so I can get away from Justin thing... So hurtful to Amber.

      Delete
    2. KatInTranslationSeptember 2, 2019 at 11:50 PM

      This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
  2. Elizabeth NicoleSeptember 3, 2019 at 12:05 AM

    This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  3. UnknownSeptember 3, 2019 at 12:06 AM

    6

    ReplyDelete
  4. ..hmmmSeptember 3, 2019 at 12:07 AM

    When I really wanted this matchup ceremony to work.... Ugh...

    ReplyDelete
  5. Elizabeth NicoleSeptember 3, 2019 at 12:10 AM

    This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Elizabeth NicoleSeptember 3, 2019 at 12:12 AM

    I'm hoping they put one of the couples in the truth booth next week that will bring them down to two possibilities. Like.. Kari and Max.

    ReplyDelete
  7. areyouthedoneSeptember 3, 2019 at 12:13 AM

    This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  8. areyouthedoneSeptember 3, 2019 at 12:14 AM

    This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  9. StephSeptember 3, 2019 at 10:56 AM

    Voting #1! I think all of those make sense...

    ReplyDelete
  10. Amy BethSeptember 3, 2019 at 7:36 PM

    Does anyone else think that if Amber hadn’t been comforting Max, she would have paired up with Justin for the challenge and possibly have been voted into the Truth Booth?

    ReplyDelete
  11. dougomaniaSeptember 3, 2019 at 7:54 PM

    Isn't there 4 possible outcomes.

    Amber-Kylie Justin-Remy Kari-Max
    - Can't happen because This we know is not the right combination

    Amber-Max Justin-Kari Kylie-Remy
    Amber-Remy Justin-Kari Kylie-Max
    - both of these aren't possible because at least one light match was there and none of the matches exist in these combinations.

    That leaves 4 options
    Kari-Max Kylie-Remy Amber-Justin
    Kari-Max Kylie-Justin Amber-Remy
    Justin-Remy Max-Kylie Kari-Amber
    Kylie-Amber Kari-Justin Remy-Max

    50% chance that Max and Kari are a perfect match.

    If they put kari and max in the truth booth they have it down to 50/50

    ReplyDelete
  12. Caroline MSeptember 4, 2019 at 9:09 PM

    No matter what, they're going to have a 50/50 shot going into the final ceremony. Here's how:

    If they put Kari-Max in the truth booth and it's a yes, they'll have a 50/50 shot (the Amber-Justin scenario or the Amber-Remy scenario). If they put Kari-Max in the truth booth and it's a no, they'll have a 50/50 shot (the Amber-Kari scenario or the Amber-Kylie scenario).

    If they put any of the other couples in, there's a 25% chance they get it right and win instantly. Then there's a 75% chance it's wrong, in which case they have a 33.3% chance of guessing correctly from the three remaining combos. 75% * 33.3% = 25%, and then 25% (chances of winning instantly) + 25% (chances of not winning instantly and then guessing right in the ceremony) = 50%.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Caroline MSeptember 4, 2019 at 9:17 PM

      If I were them, I'd bet on Amber being with Kylie or Kari. Otherwise, all three "straggler" couples are F-M pairings, and with Aasha and Brandon already confirmed, I semi-doubt that outcome. Would MTV have 4 of the 8 couples be straight on this season? (I mean, maybe?! What do I know. But I'd bet against it if I had to.)

      Delete
    2. RayenboSeptember 5, 2019 at 12:14 AM

      This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
    3. RayenboSeptember 5, 2019 at 12:15 AM

      A pairing cannot be "straight". Perhaps you meant hetro-normative?

      Delete
    4. THIS IS IT!September 5, 2019 at 5:54 PM

      I agree about Amber picking Kari or Kylie. Also, what are the odds of an Amber-Remy scenario?Kari/Kylie and Justin/Max had been switched the whole time? Unlikely!

      Delete
  13. UnknownSeptember 9, 2019 at 12:52 PM

    i really believe its remy and amber, justin and kylie, max and kari
    kari and kylies relationship has a lot of similarities to justins and max where justin and kylie were the same attitude and max and kari kind of the same as well
    so that leaves amber and remy and they both love flirting

    ReplyDelete
  14. lokzSeptember 9, 2019 at 10:47 PM

    any recs on where to watch the finale online (free and possibly live pls) used to use xfinity on campus but cant anymore lol

    ReplyDelete
  15. PerfectmoneyJune 20, 2022 at 11:42 AM

    I'm trusting they put one of the couples in reality corner one week from now that will bring them down to two prospects. Like.. Kari and Max. Perfect Money

    ReplyDelete
  16. PerfectmoneyJune 20, 2022 at 12:03 PM

    I'm believing they put one of the couples actually corner multi week from now that will bring them down to two possibilities. Like.. Kari and Max. Perfect Money

    ReplyDelete

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