Season 2, Episode 4 Probabilities - Live Blog

Live blog!

10:03 Christina and John seem intent on messing up everything. They picked a great 11th girl.

Jessica right at it again.

Jasmine and Garland getting some camera time. A nice sweet, brief moment.

10:07

Layton sneaks in with 9! Jessica bumping it up.

Pratt 12
Curtis 18
Dario 20
Alex 45
John 50
Brandon 60
Anthony 65
Garland 100
Nathan ... too many to count? but he can't count past 10? bullshit.

Jessica, Paris, Jasmine.

Paris picks Pratt (50.4%)
Jessica picks Layton (14.7%)
Jasmine picks Garland (8.9%)

Past is the past until the herpes is in your future.

10:18 John briefly chivalrous at the lingerie party.

Some guys with some pretty high numbers showing a lot of jealousy.

10:24 I can't take Pratt seriously with his pitcher full of tears.

10:25 Was there a casting call for emo guys this year?

10:26 Hoverboards??? This is the most jealous I've been of the people on this show so far.

10:37 Pratt-Paris was an obvious pick... and we have our first perfect match!

Christina stays in the house. Which is a problem for John and Brandon.

	Alex	Anthony	Brandon	Curtis	Dario	Garland	John	Layton	Nathan	Pratt
Alexandria	10.6%	9.8%	X	10.1%	9.7%	26.9%	11.7%	10.6%	10.5%	X
Ashley	9.6%	9.8%	11.4%	9.3%	23.4%	8.3%	9.4%	9.5%	9.3%	X
Briana	10.3%	9.9%	11.8%	19.0%	9.3%	8.9%	10.9%	9.9%	10.0%	X
Ellie	6.0%	11.1%	12.5%	10.2%	9.5%	9.3%	11.7%	19.6%	10.2%	X
Jasmine	18.4%	11.3%	12.8%	10.0%	9.6%	7.6%	7.8%	11.7%	10.7%	X
Jenni	11.2%	20.2%	12.5%	9.9%	9.4%	9.4%	11.7%	5.8%	9.8%	X
Jessica	12.2%	6.0%	X	11.3%	11.0%	10.6%	13.7%	11.8%	23.5%	X
Paris	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match
Shelby	10.5%	10.7%	26.1%	9.3%	8.0%	9.0%	11.3%	10.1%	5.0%	X
Tyler	11.2%	11.2%	12.9%	10.7%	10.2%	10.1%	11.9%	11.0%	10.9%	X
Christina	11.8%	10.9%	X	10.9%	10.9%	10.9%	22.8%	10.9%	10.9%	X

62,326 combinations remain... still a tough climb but a little more manageable. Nobody has been an extra elimination yet.

10:43 Ceremony time!

• Ellie + Brandon
• Jenni + Anthony (repeat from episode 3)
• Briana + Curtis (repeat from episodes 1, 2, and 3)
• Tyler + Alex
• Shelby + Dario (repeat from episode 2)
• Alexandria + Nathan
• Ashley + John (repeat from episode 2)
• Jasmine + Garland (repeat from episode 2)
• Jessica + Layton (repeat from episode 2)
• Christina asks John to switch and he does! (repeat from episode 3)

10:45 Everyone wants Brandon and Christina to split up!

10:46 Jenni wants all the screen time.

10:48 Oh, we finally get an explanation of Pratt Juice. Makes sense since he is outta here.

10:50 Jenni needs "something scientific." What does that mean?

10:54 John unleashes on Christina... and then lets her steal him anyway.

10:59 Most of the women picked the same men they did last time, when they got 2 right. The maximum number of right guesses is 6 here... if they manage to pull that off, everyone who is not a repeat is correct.

11:01 None of the ceremony picks are right. Now we'll find out who the hypocrites are and who the hypocrites aren't!

	Alex	Anthony	Brandon	Curtis	Dario	Garland	John	Layton	Nathan	Pratt
Alexandria	8.5%	20.4%	X	10.8%	6.9%	38.4%	8.1%	6.9%	X	X
Ashley	8.6%	9.1%	7.4%	10.4%	30.9%	6.1%	14.2%	7.1%	6.3%	X
Brianna	14.1%	13.9%	13.3%	X	11.9%	10.9%	12.3%	11.9%	11.6%	X
Ellie	3.0%	12.4%	X	13.0%	9.5%	8.7%	11.8%	33.5%	8.1%	X
Jasmine	28.1%	12.6%	9.7%	12.4%	8.4%	X	8.1%	12.1%	8.7%	X
Jenni	14.3%	X	11.4%	13.8%	10.6%	9.7%	11.1%	8.5%	20.6%	X
Jessica	12.6%	7.8%	X	14.8%	11.0%	9.0%	13.0%	X	31.7%	X
Paris	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match
Shelby	10.7%	12.0%	37.6%	11.2%	X	6.7%	10.0%	8.5%	3.3%	X
Tyler	X	11.8%	20.7%	13.7%	10.9%	10.4%	11.3%	11.5%	9.7%	X
Christina	24.1%	12.6%	X	12.6%	12.6%	12.6%	X	12.6%	12.6%	X

16,321 combinations remain. This was probably the second-best possible outcome for the group behind 6 right, but they're still behind where the season 1 crew was after episode 2.

Note also that the "fast-forward" point we saw in episode 1 must have been shortly after this episode - as the Jenni + Anthony pairing has now officially been eliminated.

11:04 I've been ripping on John Milhiser a lot, but that's a nice Halloween costume. Same for Ryan.

Season 2, Episode 3 Fast-Forward Probabilities

Here are the post-ceremony odds with Anthony-Jenni not a match (a "fast-forward" hint from the first episode, not really a spoiler but not knowledge known to the cast yet). 107,805 combinations remaining.

	Alex	Anthony	Brandon	Curtis	Dario	Garland	John	Layton	Nathan	Pratt
Alexandria	8.6%	14.2%	X	5.0%	7.0%	34.3%	9.8%	8.0%	8.1%	5.0%
Ashley	8.2%	10.5%	8.6%	4.8%	31.2%	6.2%	10.9%	7.4%	7.4%	4.8%
Brianna	6.1%	7.5%	6.2%	51.0%	4.9%	4.7%	6.8%	5.4%	5.5%	2.0%
Ellie	4.3%	13.1%	9.8%	6.1%	8.1%	7.8%	11.4%	24.7%	8.6%	6.1%
Jasmine	24.6%	12.8%	9.5%	5.7%	7.8%	8.1%	7.1%	10.0%	8.6%	5.7%
Jenni	13.0%	X	13.7%	7.3%	10.2%	10.0%	13.6%	8.5%	16.2%	7.3%
Jessica	10.1%	9.1%	X	6.2%	8.6%	8.3%	12.1%	12.4%	27.0%	6.2%
Paris	6.1%	7.5%	6.2%	2.0%	4.9%	4.7%	6.8%	5.4%	5.5%	51.0%
Shelby	8.5%	12.3%	30.9%	5.5%	8.4%	7.1%	10.1%	8.2%	3.6%	5.5%
Tyler	10.5%	12.9%	15.1%	6.4%	9.0%	8.8%	11.5%	9.9%	9.6%	6.4%
Christina	12.7%	8.8%	X	8.8%	8.8%	8.8%	25.4%	8.8%	8.8%	8.8%

Spoiler below the jump.

Season 2, Episode 3 Probabilities - Live Blog

Live blog!

10:02 Paris-Pratt and Brianna-Curtis CALLED OUT for being part of the reason that they only had two lights last week. But, they're actually the two most likely couples remaining. They should be going to the truth booth.

10:03 White guy (Brandon?) thinks everyone is against him! Welcome to the rest of society.

10:04 Nathan goes from thinking he's hot shit to crawling after Shelby in an instant.

10:06 Tyler really shouldn't be one of the people left out of these exercises. Jenni is actually the one who should be left out.

10:10 And now Nathan is crying.

10:13 Brandon sneaks in with Alexandria!! Of course he does, it's not like they showed previews of this at least twice already.

With Brandon-Alexandria (10.3%), Christina-John (10.1%), and Ashley-Layton (8.8%) are a pretty lackluster set of options for the truth booth. Brandon's already been in the booth twice - sending him a third time would be a totally different strategy from what the first season players went with - could use him as a "pivot" guy in predictions.

10:15 Ashley's purity ring makes everyone go nuts!

10:17 Nathan is losing his shit teenager-style. Dario plays it cool.

10:23 On Icacos Island, Layton seems to be working with what he has.

10:25 Meanwhile Alexandria is letting Brandon know he's being a TOTAL bummer.

10:26 There's a slight gap between John with a shirt and glasses on and both off.

10:28 Even Ryan seems tired of this shit.

Truth Booth

Brandon and Alexandria go! No match, no surprise. "Why is this so hard?" Because the first season people got really, really lucky. And that luck is just not there for this crew. 957,806 combinations remain.

	Alex	Anthony	Brandon	Curtis	Dario	Garland	John	Layton	Nathan	Pratt
Alexandria	10.0%	15.5%	X	7.9%	9.9%	19.3%	9.9%	9.8%	9.9%	7.9%
Ashley	8.8%	8.6%	11.5%	7.0%	17.4%	8.6%	13.8%	8.6%	8.7%	7.0%
Brianna	7.4%	6.9%	9.4%	36.1%	7.0%	6.9%	7.0%	6.9%	7.0%	5.4%
Ellie	20.5%	8.7%	12.0%	7.4%	8.8%	8.8%	8.8%	8.8%	8.8%	7.4%
Jasmine	8.9%	8.6%	11.5%	7.1%	8.7%	13.4%	17.4%	8.7%	8.7%	7.1%
Jenni	8.9%	8.6%	11.5%	7.1%	8.7%	8.7%	8.7%	17.0%	13.8%	7.1%
Jessica	10.0%	19.0%	X	7.9%	9.9%	9.8%	9.9%	15.8%	9.8%	7.9%
Paris	7.4%	6.9%	9.4%	5.4%	7.0%	6.9%	7.0%	6.9%	7.0%	36.1%
Shelby	8.8%	8.6%	11.5%	7.0%	13.8%	8.6%	8.6%	8.6%	17.3%	7.0%
Tyler	9.3%	8.7%	23.1%	7.3%	8.9%	8.8%	8.9%	8.8%	8.9%	7.3%
Christina	18.7%	10.2%	X	10.2%	10.2%	10.2%	10.2%	10.2%	10.2%	10.2%

10:35 Nice move by Anthony. Get that screen time!

10:36 The 11-woman game is definitely bumming Tyler out. (BTW, what the hell happened to Nathan??)

10:37 And then John walking in on Brandon and Christina intentionally? This house is a lot less endearing - and a lot farther from 20 $50,000 annuities - than the first season folks. Remember, they are already more than two full episodes behind the season 1 team, who figured it out in Episode 9. Expected value has to be well south of 50% at this point.

10:41 It'll be interesting to see if the house descends into fights and madness pretty soon. There seem to be more feuds between people of the same sex and they are really far away from picking everything correctly. Could be a depressing last couple episodes, like watching the end of a fourth-place baseball team.

Matchup Ceremony

• John + Christina. Wow, no hesitation on picking the 11th girl.
• Curtis + Brianna (repeat from episodes 1 and 2)
• Nathan + Jessica
• Brandon + Shelby
• Pratt + Paris (repeat from episodes 1 and 2)
• Garland + Alexandria
• Dario + Ashley
• Alex + Jasmine
• Anthony + Jenni
• Layton + Ellie

10:47 Why would anyone want to meet this season's cast?

10:49 Jessica mad that she wasn't left for Layton. And Dario mad that Brandon took her away. Guys are feuding, but this could help find out 

10:52 Tyler feels like everyone in the house is both clueless and aimless and she's RIGHT!

10:53 The guys really don't like Ellie and Tyler. They're the bottom two for second episode in a row.

And they leave Tyler out again... which is probably the right thing to do in terms of guessing, since they can't keep their hands off Christina.

John willing to say nobody is interested in Tyler.

10:56 No lights is actually a great potential scenario here that could get them back on track. Eliminates a huge number of matches and would be the same as sending 10 couples to the truth booth.

11:00 3 matches. Terrible. They don't know very much.

And Tyler repeats my sentiments. Why is she the only person they can put in front of the camera who seems to know what's going on? Maybe it's easier from the outside looking in.

	Alex	Anthony	Brandon	Curtis	Dario	Garland	John	Layton	Nathan	Pratt
Alexandria	9.1%	11.2%	X	5.5%	7.8%	33.4%	10.1%	8.7%	8.7%	5.5%
Ashley	8.5%	8.3%	9.5%	5.1%	29.4%	6.8%	11.3%	8.0%	8.0%	5.1%
Brianna	6.3%	5.9%	6.7%	50.4%	5.2%	4.9%	6.8%	5.7%	5.8%	2.2%
Ellie	7.3%	10.3%	11.2%	6.3%	8.4%	8.1%	11.3%	21.3%	9.4%	6.3%
Jasmine	20.8%	10.1%	10.9%	6.0%	8.3%	8.9%	9.0%	10.3%	9.7%	6.0%
Jenni	10.3%	21.3%	10.8%	5.8%	8.1%	7.9%	10.7%	6.7%	12.7%	5.8%
Jessica	11.1%	7.2%	X	6.5%	9.2%	8.8%	12.3%	14.7%	23.7%	6.5%
Paris	6.3%	5.9%	6.7%	2.2%	5.2%	4.9%	6.8%	5.7%	5.8%	50.4%
Shelby	9.6%	9.7%	26.8%	5.7%	9.3%	7.5%	10.5%	9.0%	6.2%	5.7%
Tyler	10.5%	10.2%	17.3%	6.5%	9.1%	8.9%	11.2%	9.9%	9.9%	6.5%
Christina	13.8%	9.1%	X	9.1%	9.1%	9.1%	22.3%	9.1%	9.1%	9.1%

137,038 combinations remain. Remember, in season 1 they had only 5,773 combinations after two episodes and 142 combinations after four episodes. That means despite the fact that this year's game is 10x harder, the cast is a THOUSAND TIMES WORSE off than last season.

Season 2, Episode 2 Fast-Forward Probabilities

Here are the post-ceremony odds with Anthony-Jenni not a match (a "fast-forward" hint from the first episode, not really a spoiler but not knowledge known to the cast yet):

	Alex	Anthony	Brandon	Curtis	Dario	Garland	John	Layton	Nathan	Pratt
Alexandria	8.9%	15.2%	10.2%	7.0%	8.7%	16.8%	8.7%	8.6%	8.8%	7.0%
Ashley	8.9%	9.6%	10.2%	7.0%	17.1%	8.7%	14.2%	8.6%	8.7%	7.0%
Brianna	7.4%	7.6%	8.4%	36.1%	7.0%	7.1%	7.0%	6.9%	7.0%	5.4%
Ellie	20.3%	9.8%	10.6%	7.4%	8.9%	8.9%	8.9%	8.8%	8.9%	7.4%
Jasmine	8.9%	9.6%	10.2%	7.0%	8.6%	14.2%	17.1%	8.7%	8.7%	7.0%
Jenni	9.9%	X	11.3%	7.7%	9.7%	9.7%	9.7%	18.7%	15.6%	7.7%
Jessica	9.9%	20.9%	X	7.7%	9.7%	9.7%	9.7%	15.2%	9.6%	7.7%
Paris	7.4%	7.6%	8.4%	5.4%	7.0%	7.1%	7.0%	6.9%	7.0%	36.1%
Shelby	9.0%	9.6%	10.3%	7.1%	14.2%	8.8%	8.6%	8.6%	16.8%	7.1%
Tyler	9.5%	10.0%	20.4%	7.5%	9.1%	9.1%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	7.5%
Christina	18.8%	10.1%	X	10.1%	10.1%	10.1%	10.1%	10.1%	10.1%	10.1%

974,668 combinations remaining.

Season 2, Episode 2 Probabilities - Live Blog

Live blog!

10:02: Going around asking people who you met yesterday if you and the guy you met yesterday are a perfect match is a sound strategy.

10:07: These quotes are insane. Also, periods syncing already?

10:16: It's definitely a gambler's strategy to send Christina to the truth booth... big reward, but it's far from the safest pick.

10:17: Wow, Jessica running after her second trip to Pound Town in only the second episode. When the cast knows ahead of time what the show is about...

10:26: Curtis-Brianna, Brandon-Christina, and Alex-Jasmine are our pairs. Looks like nobody cares about Alex and Jasmine other than the camerman.

10:31: Kissing in the truth booth. Don't think I've ever seen a pair so confident in here.

10:32: Pretty impressive that they show the after-match show live even though someone could theoretically spoil it [and then get sued].

Truth Booth

Brandon and Christina are... not a match! Because of this, we know that 2 of the 9 normal pairings were correct last game. That improves the probabilities of the other pairings a little.

4,872,600 combinations left.

	Alex	Anthony	Brandon	Curtis	Dario	Garland	John	Layton	Nathan	Pratt
Alexandria	8.4%	8.2%	11.0%	8.4%	8.4%	21.9%	8.4%	8.4%	8.4%	8.4%
Ashley	8.4%	8.2%	11.0%	8.4%	21.9%	8.4%	8.4%	8.4%	8.4%	8.4%
Brianna	8.4%	8.2%	11.0%	21.9%	8.4%	8.4%	8.4%	8.4%	8.4%	8.4%
Ellie	21.9%	8.2%	11.0%	8.4%	8.4%	8.4%	8.4%	8.4%	8.4%	8.4%
Jasmine	8.4%	8.2%	11.0%	8.4%	8.4%	8.4%	21.9%	8.4%	8.4%	8.4%
Jenni	8.4%	8.2%	11.0%	8.4%	8.4%	8.4%	8.4%	21.9%	8.4%	8.4%
Jessica	9.4%	24.7%	X	9.4%	9.4%	9.4%	9.4%	9.4%	9.4%	9.4%
Paris	8.4%	8.2%	11.0%	8.4%	8.4%	8.4%	8.4%	8.4%	8.4%	21.9%
Shelby	8.4%	8.2%	11.0%	8.4%	8.4%	8.4%	8.4%	8.4%	21.9%	8.4%
Tyler	9.8%	9.6%	12.3%	9.8%	9.8%	9.8%	9.8%	9.8%	9.8%	9.8%
Christina	11.1%	11.1%	X	11.1%	11.1%	11.1%	11.1%	11.1%	11.1%	11.1%

10:36: Now there's some big-time bickering whether they should strategize while Christina is still coping... why not? Didn't they all sign up for a game? Some of the people are thinking of sending back mostly the same group back as they did last time, which is the opposite of what the season 1 folks did (sent back none of the same people episode 2 as episode 1).

10:37: Pratt and Paris to Pound Town.

10:41: Total aside, but the marketers for The Best of Me have no idea how to market that movie. I took a Nielsen survey on how the movie trailers / commercials would look, and I thought they were okay if not a little generic. The new commercials are incomprehensible and I have no idea what the movie is supposed to be. I predict a disaster.

10:42: So the women get to choose, and Christina gets to offer one of the guys the chance to switch. Pretty cool.

Ceremony

• Jessica + Layton
• Shelby + Dario
• Paris + Pratt (repeat from episode 1)
• Jasmine + Garland
• Ashley + John
• Tyler + Brandon
• Ellie + Alex (repeat from episode 1)
• Alexandria + Anthony
• Jenni + Nathan
• Brianna + Curtis (repeat from episode 1)
• Christina asks Alex to switch and he does!

Does Tyler choose Brandon to make sure she doesn't get stolen this game?

10:54: Wow - wonder what Alex is thinking going with the switch. Just because people don't like Ellie?

2 matches! Oof. This is not good. Down to 1,068,329 combinations - but are they shedding combinations fast enough? Seems like they aren't!

	Alex	Anthony	Brandon	Curtis	Dario	Garland	John	Layton	Nathan	Pratt
Alexandria	9.0%	13.9%	10.3%	7.1%	8.8%	17.3%	8.8%	8.7%	8.9%	7.1%
Ashley	9.0%	8.8%	10.3%	7.0%	17.3%	8.8%	14.2%	8.8%	8.8%	7.0%
Brianna	7.4%	7.0%	8.4%	36.9%	7.0%	7.0%	7.0%	7.0%	7.0%	5.3%
Ellie	20.7%	8.9%	10.8%	7.4%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	8.9%	9.0%	7.4%
Jasmine	9.0%	8.7%	10.3%	7.0%	8.8%	14.2%	17.3%	8.8%	8.8%	7.0%
Jenni	9.0%	8.8%	10.3%	7.1%	8.8%	8.9%	8.8%	17.0%	14.2%	7.1%
Jessica	10.0%	19.1%	X	7.8%	9.9%	9.8%	9.9%	16.0%	9.8%	7.8%
Paris	7.4%	7.0%	8.4%	5.3%	7.0%	7.0%	7.0%	7.0%	7.0%	36.9%
Shelby	9.0%	8.8%	10.3%	7.0%	14.2%	8.8%	8.8%	8.7%	17.3%	7.0%
Tyler	9.5%	9.1%	20.7%	7.5%	9.2%	9.2%	9.2%	9.1%	9.2%	7.5%
Christina	18.8%	10.1%	X	10.1%	10.1%	10.1%	10.1%	10.1%	10.1%	10.1%

11:02: John Milhisner and I have two things in common, both of us watch Are You the One?, and neither of us are on this season of Saturday Night Live.

Season 2, Episode 1 Fast-Forward Probabilities

Here are the post-ceremony odds with Anthony-Jenni not a match (a "fast-forward" hint from the first episode, not really a spoiler but not knowledge known to the cast yet):

	Alex	Anthony	Brandon	Curtis	Dario	Garland	John	Layton	Nathan	Pratt
Alexandria	8.7%	9.3%	10.9%	8.7%	8.7%	19.2%	8.7%	8.5%	8.7%	8.7%
Ashley	8.7%	9.3%	10.9%	8.7%	19.2%	8.7%	8.7%	8.5%	8.7%	8.7%
Brianna	8.7%	9.3%	10.9%	19.2%	8.7%	8.7%	8.7%	8.5%	8.7%	8.7%
Ellie	19.2%	9.3%	10.9%	8.7%	8.7%	8.7%	8.7%	8.5%	8.7%	8.7%
Jasmine	8.7%	9.3%	10.9%	8.7%	8.7%	8.7%	19.2%	8.5%	8.7%	8.7%
Jenni	9.5%	X	12.0%	9.5%	9.5%	9.5%	9.5%	21.6%	9.5%	9.5%
Jessica	9.5%	24.3%	X	9.5%	9.5%	9.5%	9.5%	9.3%	9.5%	9.5%
Paris	8.7%	9.3%	10.9%	8.7%	8.7%	8.7%	8.7%	8.5%	8.7%	19.2%
Shelby	8.7%	9.3%	10.9%	8.7%	8.7%	8.7%	8.7%	8.5%	19.2%	8.7%
Tyler	9.7%	10.5%	11.9%	9.7%	9.7%	9.7%	9.7%	9.6%	9.7%	9.7%
Christina	8.9%	8.9%	19.5%	8.9%	8.9%	8.9%	8.9%	8.9%	8.9%	8.9%

5,556,765 combinations remaining.

Season 2, Episode 1 Probabilities and Strategy

MTV's Are You The One? features 10 men and 10 women looking for their perfect match, with one of the 10 men also being a perfect match with an 11th woman, Christina. If they manage to guess the exactly right combination, they'll split $1,000,000.

Here I'll be keeping track of the possible remaining perfect match combinations (with the help of a computer), and looking into the potential strategy of playing this game. The math work here will be independent of the romance and excitement that comes with the pairings. Unless noted otherwise, assume the probabilities of a matchup here being successful are random, ignoring chemistry and all the parts of the show that are actually fun.

Prize and Probability of Winning

All 20 winners will split a 30-year annuity that will pay out $1,000,000. That means if they elect to take the present day "lump sum," they'll end up with around $25,000 each (in addition to a shot at finding their perfect match and getting some weekly face time on MTV). If either of the women who are perfect matches with the same man is identified at any point as a perfect match, the other woman is kicked out of the house and wins no prize.

The number of possible permutations in the original game is 10 factorial = 10! = 10 * 9 * 8 * 7 * 6 * 5 * 4 * 3 * 2 * 1 = 3,628,800. The added factor of the 11th woman multiplies that probability by 10 for 36,288,000 guesses. Put simply, a random guess would have a 1 in 36,288,000 chance of winning (0.000002756%).

The show has multiple challenges where additional information is provided, reducing the number of possible combinations. The contestants only have 10 episodes to find the perfect match, so they'll need to reduce it quickly to have a chance.

11th Girl Strategy

I guess MTV thought last season was too easy (I disagree - I think the group got very lucky!) and added the 11th girl to make the game potentially 10 times harder. The optimal strategy for the men would to never guess Christina and continue playing the game as if she didn't exist - that would bring the game back down to the 3,628,800 permutations and as simple as last season.

My guess is that they will probably alternate between men choosing their partners and women choosing their partners as they did last season, which will force Christina to be involved in half of the episodes, further diluting the chances of the team winning.

Episode Jumps Ahead

One of the first things we see is a preview of Day 34 where Anthony indicates he and Jenni are not a perfect match. For the time being, I'll ignore this look-ahead, but in the future, I'll start calculating using this information.

Truth Booth

Here, the optimal strategy is once again not to pick Christina. Layton-Alexandria, Brandon-Jessica, and Pratt-Paris are the couples, so they're safe from this. Just pick a couple and go into the Truth Booth.

As an aside, Pratt and Paris conniving to stay in the house is a pretty good strategy for fun. If they are a perfect match, they'll spend the remaining 9 episodes together instead of meeting the other 19 people. Seems like a good idea to me.

Jessica and Brandon were nominated. If they were a match and Christina-Brandon weren't a match, that would have eliminated (9 * 9 * 9!) + (10!) = 33,022,080 combinations. If they were a match and Brandon was Christina's perfect match, that would have eliminated 35,925,120 combinations (leaving 9! = 362,880 combinations). Learning that Jessica and Brandon weren't a match eliminated 10 * 9! = 3,628,800 possible combinations.

	Alex	Anthony	Brandon	Curtis	Dario	Garland	John	Layton	Nathan	Pratt
Alexandria	9.9%	9.9%	11.1%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%
Ashley	9.9%	9.9%	11.1%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%
Briana	9.9%	9.9%	11.1%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%
Ellie	9.9%	9.9%	11.1%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%
Jasmine	9.9%	9.9%	11.1%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%
Jenni	9.9%	9.9%	11.1%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%
Jessica	11.1%	11.1%	X	11.1%	11.1%	11.1%	11.1%	11.1%	11.1%	11.1%
Paris	9.9%	9.9%	11.1%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%
Shelby	9.9%	9.9%	11.1%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%
Tyler	9.9%	9.9%	11.1%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%	9.9%
Christina	10.0%	10.0%	10.0%	10.0%	10.0%	10.0%	10.0%	10.0%	10.0%	10.0%

32,659,200 combinations remain.

Matchup Ceremony

Obviously, the only restriction here is don't put Brandon and Jessica together.

• Layton + Jenni
• Dario + Ashley
• Pratt + Paris
• Curtis + Briana
• John + Jasmine
• Brandon + Christina
• Garland + Alexandria
• Anthony + Jessica
• Nathan + Shelby
• Alex + Ellie
• Tyler not picked

2 out of 10 correct means either:

• 1 out of the 9 standard pairings were correct, Brandon + Christina was correct, and Brandon + Tyler are a match.
• 1 out of the 9 standard pairings were correct, another of the 9 women were not paired with Brandon, and Brandon + Christina was correct, and Brandon + Tyler are not a match.
• 2 of the 9 standard pairings were correct, Brandon + Christina were incorrect, and Brandon + Tyler are a match.
• 2 of the 9 standard pairings were correct, Brandon + Christina were incorrect, and Brandon + Tyler are not a match.

That leaves 6,074,065 possibilities. Here are the updated odds:

	Alex	Anthony	Brandon	Curtis	Dario	Garland	John	Layton	Nathan	Pratt
Alexandria	8.7%	8.5%	11.1%	8.7%	8.7%	19.7%	8.7%	8.7%	8.7%	8.7%
Ashley	8.7%	8.5%	11.1%	8.7%	19.7%	8.7%	8.7%	8.7%	8.7%	8.7%
Briana	8.7%	8.5%	11.1%	19.7%	8.7%	8.7%	8.7%	8.7%	8.7%	8.7%
Ellie	19.7%	8.5%	11.1%	8.7%	8.7%	8.7%	8.7%	8.7%	8.7%	8.7%
Jasmine	8.7%	8.5%	11.1%	8.7%	8.7%	8.7%	19.7%	8.7%	8.7%	8.7%
Jenni	8.7%	8.5%	11.1%	8.7%	8.7%	8.7%	8.7%	19.7%	8.7%	8.7%
Jessica	9.7%	23.5%	X	9.7%	9.7%	9.7%	9.7%	9.7%	9.7%	9.7%
Paris	8.7%	8.5%	11.1%	8.7%	8.7%	8.7%	8.7%	8.7%	8.7%	19.7%
Shelby	8.7%	8.5%	11.1%	8.7%	8.7%	8.7%	8.7%	8.7%	19.7%	8.7%
Tyler	9.8%	9.6%	12.1%	9.8%	9.8%	9.8%	9.8%	9.8%	9.8%	9.8%
Christina	8.9%	8.9%	19.8%	8.9%	8.9%	8.9%	8.9%	8.9%	8.9%	8.9%

Looks like the best strategy in the next episode would be to send Anthony and Jessica through the truth booth. I'll have the calculator up and running next week.

Season 2 coming soon!

Stay tuned! We'll have all the math from Season 2's first episode up on Wednesday.