Season 8, Episode 12 Probabilities - Live Blog

Last episode of the season. No reunion on the schedule. Gotta imagine they win it... right?

It's looking likely that this is the fourth house to go into the final matchup ceremony not knowing if they have the right combination or not.

11:09: The stragglers are pairing off. Justin and Amber trying each other out... Basit is frustrated with the stragglers.

11:14: This week's challenge is people going head-to-head on what they know of the other housemates' love languages. The winners are Kylie, Basit, and Kari, who pick Amber, Jonathan, and Max respectively. Kylie - Amber is a 25% match and Kari - Max are a 50% match.

The expected value for each of the two main couples is a 50% chance at winning the money. Take Kari and Max and you're guaranteed a 50% chance at the Matchup Ceremony. Take Kylie and Amber and you've got a 25% chance of winning in the Truth Booth, with a 1-in-3 chance of picking the right combination out of the remaining 3. Knowing the probabilities, I'd probably go with Kylie and Amber and hope for the sure bet...

11:23: Kari and Max trying to talk themselves into this coupling...

Truth Booth #10

It's Amber and Kylie...

11:30: No match. 3 possibilities left.

	Aasha	Amber	Basit	Brandon	Danny	Jasmine	Jenna	Jonathan
Aasha	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X
Amber	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Basit	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match
Brandon	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Danny	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Jasmine	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Jenna	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Jonathan	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X
Justin	X	33.3%	X	X	X	X	X	X
Kai	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X
Kari	X	33.3%	X	X	X	X	X	X
Kylie	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Max	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Nour	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X
Paige	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X
Remy	X	33.3%	X	X	X	X	X	X
	Justin	Kai	Kari	Kylie	Max	Nour	Paige	Remy
Aasha	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Amber	33.3%	X	33.3%	X	X	X	X	33.3%
Basit	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Brandon	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Danny	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X
Jasmine	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X
Jenna	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X
Jonathan	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Justin	X	X	X	33.3%	X	X	X	33.3%
Kai	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Kari	X	X	X	X	66.7%	X	X	X
Kylie	33.3%	X	X	X	33.3%	X	X	33.3%
Max	X	X	66.7%	33.3%	X	X	X	X
Nour	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Paige	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Remy	33.3%	X	X	33.3%	X	X	X	X

1. Amber-Justin Kari-Max Kylie-Remy
2. Amber-Kari Justin-Remy Kylie-Max
3. Amber-Remy Justin-Kylie Kari-Max

11:31: Season 3, the house went in with 4 combinations left and won. Season 5 they had 2 choices and lost. Season 7, 2 possibilities and win. A loss here could mean that, for the first time, the right perfect matches are unless MTV tells us.

11:31: Amber floats back to Justin. Max arguing for Kari. And that leaves Kylie and Remy?

11:33: Now Amber and Remy are talking themselves into each other... Justin feels out of the loop.

11:35: Amber, Kari, Kylie, Paige, Danny, and others go skinny-dipping. Max, Basit, and Jonathan opt out... Basit lays down an all-time meme with "this doesn't look sanitary at all" - can we GIF them??

11:40: Some pushing for Amber to go with Remy because of love over lust.

Matchup Ceremony #10

Here we go.

• Danny - Kai (previously inferred perfect match)
• Max - Kari
• Amber - Remy
• Basit - Jonathan (previously inferred perfect match)
• Jenna - Paige (previously inferred perfect match)
• Nour - Jasmine (previously inferred perfect match)
• Justin - Kylie

Blackout probability: 0%
Instant win possible: Yes
Maximum number of lights: 8

11:43: Brandon gets a talking head!

11:50: Amber makes the call - going with Remy over Justin. Justin doesn't like it.

11:53: We'll know the final couples based on the number of beams.

1. Amber-Justin Kari-Max Kylie-Remy - 6 beams
2. Amber-Kari Justin-Remy Kylie-Max - 5 beams
3. Amber-Remy Justin-Kylie Kari-Max - win

11:54: The 6th beam means Kari and Max are a match, and it's down to Amber's call.

11:59: And they win! $750,000 is the prize after one blackout.

12:02: Finally, Justin is thankful that Amber didn't pick him!

• Basit - Jonathan (matchup ceremony #5)
• Aasha - Brandon (truth booth #6)
• Jasmine - Nour (truth booth #6)
• Danny - Kai (matchup ceremony #8)
• Jenna - Paige (matchup ceremony #8)
• Kari - Max (truth booth #10)
• Amber - Remy (truth booth #10)
• Justin - Kylie (matchup ceremony #10)

No news on what or when the next season will be...

Thanks to everyone for following the blog!

Season 8, Episode 11 Probabilities - Live Blog

After a week off, we join the show waiting to see if there are 3 or 8 beams from Matchup Ceremony #8...

11:06: And... as expected, it's 3 beams. This means there are 8 matchups left with two new perfect matches: Danny and Kai plus Jenna and Paige. That means ten housemates are in perfect matches, and six are not. The bad news for the six: each has 3-5 possible matches left, and none a better than 50% chance. And none of those are Justin and Max.

	Aasha	Amber	Basit	Brandon	Danny	Jasmine	Jenna	Jonathan
Aasha	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X
Amber	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Basit	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match
Brandon	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Danny	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Jasmine	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Jenna	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Jonathan	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X
Justin	X	12.5%	X	X	X	X	X	X
Kai	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X
Kari	X	25.0%	X	X	X	X	X	X
Kylie	X	25.0%	X	X	X	X	X	X
Max	X	12.5%	X	X	X	X	X	X
Nour	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X
Paige	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X
Remy	X	25.0%	X	X	X	X	X	X
	Justin	Kai	Kari	Kylie	Max	Nour	Paige	Remy
Aasha	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Amber	12.5%	X	25.0%	25.0%	12.5%	X	X	25.0%
Basit	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Brandon	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Danny	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X
Jasmine	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X
Jenna	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X
Jonathan	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Justin	X	X	37.5%	25.0%	X	X	X	25.0%
Kai	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Kari	37.5%	X	X	X	37.5%	X	X	X
Kylie	25.0%	X	X	X	25.0%	X	X	25.0%
Max	X	X	37.5%	25.0%	X	X	X	25.0%
Nour	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Paige	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Remy	25.0%	X	X	25.0%	25.0%	X	X	X

1. Amber-Justin Kari-Max Kylie-Remy
2. Amber-Kari Justin-Kylie Max-Remy
3. Amber-Kari Justin-Remy Kylie-Max
4. Amber-Kylie Justin-Kari Max-Remy
5. Amber-Kylie Justin-Remy Kari-Max
6. Amber-Max Justin-Kari Kylie-Remy
7. Amber-Remy Justin-Kari Kylie-Max
8. Amber-Remy Justin-Kylie Kari-Max

These 8 possibilities are only half of the possible 15 combinations of 6 housemates. The eliminated couplings: Justin - Max, Kari - Kylie, and Kari - Remy.

11:07: Max looked pretty devastated in the confessional, which was a tell. Danny really upset in real-time.

11:08: Justin is ready to cut this off. Doesn't feel like this is going to be a couple that resumes after the show. Justin wants to find his perfect match, but Max isn't ready to move on from his first boyfriend.

11:10: Danny and Kai seem pretty encouraged about their opportunity to figure out why they are a perfect match. (Hi Danny!)

11:20: The first segment before the commercial break was definitely tough - and looks like Terrence J is bringing a different tone for the challenge. The couples have to match answers to questions.

For the challenge, the six picked: Amber - Max (12.5%), Kylie - Remy (25%), Justin - Kari (37.5%).

People feel good about Justin and Kari - they're pretty well aligned and the top couple to send into the Truth Booth.

The date is Danny - Kai, Amber - Max, and Justin - Kari.

Truth Booth #9

11:33: The house picks Amber and Max, mostly out of wanting to give Max a great opportunity. Amber doesn't seem happy about it, but she's going with it. Justin isn't happy either, mostly because he wants Amber!

No match means 7 combinations remain. And instead of making Max happier, his sadness compounds.

	Aasha	Amber	Basit	Brandon	Danny	Jasmine	Jenna	Jonathan
Aasha	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X
Amber	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Basit	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match
Brandon	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Danny	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Jasmine	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Jenna	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Jonathan	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X
Justin	X	14.3%	X	X	X	X	X	X
Kai	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X
Kari	X	28.6%	X	X	X	X	X	X
Kylie	X	28.6%	X	X	X	X	X	X
Max	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Nour	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X
Paige	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X
Remy	X	28.6%	X	X	X	X	X	X
	Justin	Kai	Kari	Kylie	Max	Nour	Paige	Remy
Aasha	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Amber	14.3%	X	28.6%	28.6%	X	X	X	28.6%
Basit	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Brandon	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Danny	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X
Jasmine	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X
Jenna	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X
Jonathan	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Justin	X	X	28.6%	28.6%	X	X	X	28.6%
Kai	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Kari	28.6%	X	X	X	42.9%	X	X	X
Kylie	28.6%	X	X	X	28.6%	X	X	14.3%
Max	X	X	42.9%	28.6%	X	X	X	28.6%
Nour	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Paige	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Remy	28.6%	X	X	14.3%	28.6%	X	X	X

1. Amber-Justin Kari-Max Kylie-Remy
2. Amber-Kari Justin-Kylie Max-Remy
3. Amber-Kari Justin-Remy Kylie-Max
4. Amber-Kylie Justin-Kari Max-Remy
5. Amber-Kylie Justin-Remy Kari-Max
6. Amber-Remy Justin-Kari Kylie-Max
7. Amber-Remy Justin-Kylie Kari-Max

11:39: Danny gets his first pass in the Boom Boom Room, and Kylie launches her campaign for Amber!

11:47: Kari and Max talking about loyalty and they're on the same wavelength. Looks like the house is centering on matchup 5 above. However, it sounds like Justin may not be on board for this... and may want to push for matchup 4 instead. Either way, there would be 3 possible sets of lights - 5, 6, and 8 - with a very high probability of not knowing the matches going into the final matchup ceremony if they don't win.

Matchup Ceremony #9

• Paige - Jenna (previously inferred perfect match)
• Amber - Kylie
• Nour - Jasmine (previously inferred perfect match)
• Danny - Kai (previously inferred perfect match)
• Max - Kari
• Justin - Remy
• Basit - Jonathan (previously inferred perfect match)

11:55: Danny says he and Kai went with a "take your son to work day" theme!

11:56: Here are the possibilities remaining which each set of beams:

1. Amber-Justin Kari-Max Kylie-Remy - 6 beams
2. Amber-Kari Justin-Kylie Max-Remy - 5 beams
3. Amber-Kari Justin-Remy Kylie-Max - 6 beams
4. Amber-Kylie Justin-Kari Max-Remy - 6 beams
5. Amber-Kylie Justin-Remy Kari-Max - win
6. Amber-Remy Justin-Kari Kylie-Max - 5 beams
7. Amber-Remy Justin-Kylie Kari-Max - 6 beams

11:59: Justin's hype is corny like Russell Wilson too.

12:03: 6 beams - and Danny knows it, 6 is really bad because that leaves 4 possibilities. And without a successful Truth Booth (or even with a successful Kari and Max one), they'll go into the finale not knowing the right answer.

	Aasha	Amber	Basit	Brandon	Danny	Jasmine	Jenna	Jonathan
Aasha	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X
Amber	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Basit	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match
Brandon	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Danny	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Jasmine	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Jenna	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Jonathan	X	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X
Justin	X	25.0%	X	X	X	X	X	X
Kai	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X	X
Kari	X	25.0%	X	X	X	X	X	X
Kylie	X	25.0%	X	X	X	X	X	X
Max	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Nour	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X
Paige	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X
Remy	X	25.0%	X	X	X	X	X	X
	Justin	Kai	Kari	Kylie	Max	Nour	Paige	Remy
Aasha	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Amber	25.0%	X	25.0%	25.0%	X	X	X	25.0%
Basit	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Brandon	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Danny	X	Match	X	X	X	X	X	X
Jasmine	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X	X
Jenna	X	X	X	X	X	X	Match	X
Jonathan	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Justin	X	X	25.0%	25.0%	X	X	X	25.0%
Kai	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Kari	25.0%	X	X	X	50.0%	X	X	X
Kylie	25.0%	X	X	X	25.0%	X	X	25.0%
Max	X	X	50.0%	25.0%	X	X	X	25.0%
Nour	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Paige	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Remy	25.0%	X	X	25.0%	25.0%	X	X	X

1. Amber-Justin Kari-Max Kylie-Remy
2. Amber-Kari Justin-Remy Kylie-Max
3. Amber-Kylie Justin-Kari Max-Remy
4. Amber-Remy Justin-Kylie Kari-Max