9:03 N: Mike is getting very real right away
9:04 A: Seems like they didn't get their partying on enough during the first week, so the guys are getting the party started!
9:04 N: It's Ozzy's birthday tomorrow, I wonder if he gets the same birthday present that Mike got
9:05 N: MTV casting fail, people that don't want to party and act trashy? Tyler and Taylor, kind of feel like their names are too similar
9:07 N: Confessional boner!!!
9:07 A: Andre and Alicia headed to the Boom Boom Room... lots of chemistry going on
9:10 N: It's challenge time!
9:12 A: The guys are going to be tied to posts and the girls are going to tie them up and find them by smell.
9:13 N: Tyler looks SOOOO disappointed that Hannah (8.2%) liked his scent.
9:14 A: Alicia finds Andre (17.8%) because he smells like Fritos!
9:15 N: Kari studied neuroscience in college, clearly took notes... that's why she won this get away date with Joey (8.2%).
9:18 N: Shower show and tell time. Kam, you are looking.
Truth Booth
9:28 N: Not shocking that it's Andre and Alicia headed to the Truth Booth. These two are going to be DEVASTATED if they are not a match.
9:30 A: No offer this week to trade the truth booth for an extra $150,000 added to the prize. Let's run those numbers anyway...
Estimated value of forfeiting truth booth for $150,000: $1.54
Estimated value of going to the truth booth: $1.89
Estimated value of losing the truth booth: $1.62
It's worth trading the truth booth for approximately: $413,691
9:34 A: No match! Brings us down to 5,540,084 combinations remaining.
| Andre | Derrick | Edward | Hayden | Jaylan | Joey | Michael | Mike | Osvaldo | Ozzy | Tyler | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alicia | X | 9.9% | 9.9% | 10.8% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 9.9% |
| Carolina | 9.9% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 19.6% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.8% |
| Casandra | 9.9% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 19.6% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.8% |
| Gianna | 10.8% | 8.4% | 8.4% | X | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 21.7% | 8.4% |
| Hannah | 9.9% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 19.6% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.8% |
| Kam | 9.9% | 7.8% | 19.6% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.8% |
| Kari | 9.9% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 19.6% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.8% |
| Kathryn | 9.9% | 19.6% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.8% |
| Shannon | 9.8% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 21.7% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.6% |
| Taylor | 9.9% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 19.6% |
| Tyranny | 9.9% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 19.6% | 7.6% | 7.8% |
9:35 A: Now Hannah trying to talk Alicia out of Andre.
9:36 N: What's a "mandle"?
9:37 N: Alicia is not a happy camper. So many female eye rolls
9:37 A: Hannah was just trying to move in on Andre as soon as she could.
Matchup Ceremony
9:45 A: Lots of people choosing differently... this actually is a great strategy for narrowing a lot of possibilities, but risk of a blackout is high.
9:47 A: Hilarious bit by Michael (who looks a bit like Kevin Love?) and Hannah calling Gianna Trump.
- Osvaldo - Kari
- Ozzy - Kathryn
- Jaylan - Kam
- Edward - Shannon
- Derrick - Alicia
- Hayden - Taylor
- Andre - Hannah
- Michael - Gianna
- Joey - Carolina (repeat from episode 1)
- Mike - Casandra
- Tyler - Tyranny
Instant win possible: No, did not repeat two matchups from episode 1
Maximum number of lights: 9
Most likely number of lights: 1
10:00 A: Blackout!!! They lose half a million dollars and still have 1,997,186 possibilities left.
| Andre | Derrick | Edward | Hayden | Jaylan | Joey | Michael | Mike | Osvaldo | Ozzy | Tyler | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alicia | X | X | 10.8% | 11.9% | 10.9% | 12.3% | 10.9% | 10.9% | 10.9% | 10.6% | 10.8% |
| Carolina | 12.3% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 10.5% | 9.6% | X | 9.7% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 9.6% |
| Casandra | 10.9% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 21.5% | 9.6% | 8.2% | X | 8.2% | 8.0% | 8.2% |
| Gianna | 11.9% | 9.2% | 8.8% | X | 8.8% | 10.5% | X | 8.8% | 8.8% | 24.1% | 8.8% |
| Hannah | X | 8.7% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 9.9% | 22.1% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 8.4% |
| Kam | 10.8% | 8.4% | 21.5% | 8.9% | X | 9.6% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 8.2% |
| Kari | 10.9% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 21.5% | X | 8.0% | 8.2% |
| Kathryn | 10.8% | 21.8% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 8.1% | X | 8.1% |
| Shannon | 10.6% | 8.2% | X | 24.1% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.0% |
| Taylor | 10.9% | 8.5% | 8.2% | X | 8.2% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 21.8% |
| Tyranny | 10.8% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 21.5% | 8.0% | X |
We had hundreds of readers following along live tonight - thank you! Would you be interested in watching a live stream after the show?
Would you watch an Are You The One? Math after-match live stream?
A good strategy for tonight would be to have everyone choose the same person as last week EXCEPT Andre and Alicia swap with another couple who was likely to be a match/beam (ie, Andre - Gianna and Ozzy-Alicia). 0% chance of blackout. If 1 beam, it confirms a perfect match (the couple that was swapped) and guarantees that they cannot black out the rest of the season (having a confirmed match still in the house). If 2 beams, then couple a confirmed no match. If 3 or 4 beams, then you know one or both of the new couples are a match. 1 in 5 chance to get a confirmed match (probably 1 in 3 if you factor in emotions and feelings rather than pure randomness).
ReplyDeleteExcept knowing the cast they would have confirmed to one of their "100% we're so in love" perfect matches like Ozzy and Kathryn, and blacked out. Great strategy for us sitting at home crunching numbers, horrible for the cast we have on the show. That being said, their own strategy this week didn't fare any better.
DeleteNo, they still couldn't have blacked out. They would have only changed 2 couples and one of them being a confirmed no match it would be impossible to black out. That being said it probably wouldn't have provided information worth a forfeited ceremony
DeleteAlex you are amazing! So excited for this journey of another season with you.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the blog! I love Taylor and Hannah<3
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteJust found your blog and I am in love!!! I was looking for stats on post show relationships but this is everything I never knew I needed!!!
ReplyDeleteGreat blog! Love this... I just wanted to say that I noticed in the commercial the people get up all excited, like there was a match... maybe if you check the 2 people that are not in this clip, they might be a match. I'm not sure if that would work but idk maybe..? Did you put that in consideration? Any whooooooo... love this blog and I look forward to more!!!
ReplyDeleteit's Edward and Kam
DeleteGianna and Ozzy are a match based on week one and three and Jaylan and Cassandra not being match
ReplyDeleteMy guesses for perfect matches are
ReplyDeleteAlicia and Mike
Carolina and Hayden
Cassandra and Derrick
Gianna and Ozzy
Hannah and Joey
Kam and Eddie
Kari and Michael
Kathryn and Tyler
Shannon and Andre
Taylor and Osvaldo
Tyranny and Jaylan